Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Chapter-9 (section)

===== 9.5.2.1.2 Projections =====

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At 1.5°C, 2°C and 3°C of global warming above pre-industrial levels, mean annual temperatures in north Africa are projected to be on average, 0.9°C, 1.5°C and 2.6°C warmer than the 1994–2005 average, respectively (Figure 9.16a). Warming is projected to be stronger in summer than winter ( [[#Lelieveld--2016|Lelieveld et al., 2016]] ; [[#Dosio--2017|Dosio, 2017]] ). The number of hot days is ''likely'' to increase by up to 90% by the end of the century under RCP8.5 (global warming level [GWL] 4.4°C) ( [[#Gutiérrez--2021|Gutiérrez et al., 2021]] ; [[#Ranasinghe--2021|Ranasinghe et al., 2021]] ) and hot nights and the duration of warm spells to increase in the first half of the 21st century in both intermediate and high-emission scenarios ( [[#Patricola--2010|Patricola and Cook, 2010]] ; [[#Vizy--2012|Vizy and Cook, 2012]] ; [[#Lelieveld--2016|Lelieveld et al., 2016]] ; [[#Dosio--2017|Dosio, 2017]] ; [[#Filahi--2017|Filahi et al., 2017]] ). Heatwaves are projected to become more frequent and intense even at 1.5°C of global warming ( [[#Gutiérrez--2021|Gutiérrez et al., 2021]] ; [[#Ranasinghe--2021|Ranasinghe et al., 2021]] ). Children born in 2020, under a 1.5°C-compatible scenario will be exposed to 4–6 times more heatwaves in their lifetimes compared to people born in 1960; this exposure increases to 9–10 times more heatwaves for emission reduction pledges, limiting global warming to 2.4°C ( [[#Thiery--2021|Thiery et al., 2021]] ).

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