Editing IPCC:AR6/WGIII/Chapter-6 (section)

==== 6.5.2.3 Solar Energy ====

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Climate change is not expected to substantially impact global solar insolation and will not compromise the ability of solar energy to support low-carbon transitions ( ''high confidence'' ). Models show dimming and brightening in certain regions, driven by cloud, aerosol and water vapour trends ( [[IPCC:Wg3:Chapter:Chapter-12|Chapter 12]] of IPCC AR6 WGI). The increase in surface temperature, which affects all regions, decreases solar power output by reducing the PV panel efficiency. In some models and climate scenarios, the increases in solar insolation are counterbalanced by reducing efficiency due to rising surface air temperatures, which increase significantly in all models and scenarios ( [[#Jerez--2015|Jerez et al. 2015]] ; [[#Bartók--2017|Bartók et al. 2017]] ; [[#Emodi--2019|Emodi et al. 2019]] ). Increases in aerosols would reduce the solar resource available and add to maintenance costs ( [[IPCC:Wg3:Chapter:Chapter-12|Chapter 12]] of IPCC AR6 WGI).

In many emission scenarios, the effect on solar PV from temperature-induced efficiency losses is smaller than the effect expected from changes on solar insolation due to variations in water vapour and clouds in most regions. Also, future PV technologies will likely have higher efficiency, which would offset temperature-related declines ( [[#Müller--2019|Müller et al. 2019]] ). Cloud cover is projected to decrease in the subtropics (around –0.05% per year), including parts of North America, vast parts of Europe and China, South America, South Africa and Australia ( ''medium agreement'' , ''medium evidence'' ). Thus, models project modest (&lt;3%) increases in solar PV by the end of the century for southern Europe, northern and southern Africa, Central America, and the Caribbean ( [[#Emodi--2019|Emodi et al. 2019]] ). There are several studies projecting decreasing solar production, but these are generally influenced by other factors, for example, increasing air pollution ( [[#Ruosteenoja--2019|Ruosteenoja et al. 2019]] ). The multi-model means for solar insolation in regional models decrease 0.60 W m –2 per decade from 2006 to 2100 over most of Europe ( [[#Bartók--2017|Bartók et al. 2017]] ), with the most significant decreases in the Northern countries ( [[#Jerez--2015|Jerez et al. 2015]] ).

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