Editing IPCC:AR6/SROCC/Chapter-2 (section)

=== 2.3.5 Tourism and Recreation ===

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The mountain cryosphere provides important aesthetic, cultural, and recreational services to society (Xiao et al., 2015 <sup>[[#fn:r898|898]]</sup> ). These services support tourism, providing economic contributions and livelihood options to mountain communities and beyond. The relevant changes in the cryosphere affecting mountain tourism and recreation include shorter seasons of snow cover, more winter precipitation falling as rain instead of snow, and declining glaciers and permafrost (Sections 2.2.1, 2.2.2, 2.2.3 and 2.2.4). Downhill skiing, the most popular form of snow recreation, occurs in 67 countries (Vanat, 2018 <sup>[[#fn:r899|899]]</sup> ). The Alps in Europe support the largest ski industry (Vanat, 2018 <sup>[[#fn:r900|900]]</sup> ). In Europe, the growth of alpine skiing and winter tourism after 1930 brought major economic growth to alpine regions and transformed winter sports into a multi-billion USD industry (Denning, 2014 <sup>[[#fn:r901|901]]</sup> ). Sixteen percent of skier visits occur in the USA, where expenditures from all recreational snow sports generated more than 695,000 jobs and 72.7 billion USD in trip-related spending in 2016 (Outdoor Industry Association, 2017 <sup>[[#fn:r902|902]]</sup> ). While the number of ski resorts in the USA has been decreasing since the 1980s, China added 57 new ski resorts in 2017 (Vanat, 2018 <sup>[[#fn:r903|903]]</sup> ). Although the bulk of economic activity is held within mountain communities, supply chains for production of ski equipment and apparel span the globe. Steiger et al. (2017) <sup>[[#fn:r904|904]]</sup> point out that Asia, Africa and South America are underrepresented in the ski tourism literature, and Africa and the Middle East are not significant markets from a ski tourism perspective.

Skiing’s reliance on favourable atmospheric and snow conditions make it particularly vulnerable to climate change (Arent et al., 2014 <sup>[[#fn:r905|905]]</sup> ; Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2018 <sup>[[#fn:r906|906]]</sup> ). Snow reliability, although not universally defined, quantifies whether the snow cover is sufficient for ski resorts operations. Depending on the context, it focuses on specific periods of the winter season, and may account for interannual variability and/or for snow management (Steiger et al., 2017 <sup>[[#fn:r907|907]]</sup> ). The effects of less snow, due to strong correlation between snow cover and skier visits, cost the USA economy 1 billion USD and 17,400 jobs per year between 2001–2016 in years of less seasonal snow (Hagenstad et al., 2018 <sup>[[#fn:r908|908]]</sup> ). Efforts to reduce climate change impacts and risks to economic losses focus on increased snowmaking, such as artificial production of snow (Steiger et al., 2017 <sup>[[#fn:r909|909]]</sup> ), summertime slope preparation (Pintaldi et al., 2017 <sup>[[#fn:r91+|91+]]</sup> ), grooming (Steiger et al., 2017 <sup>[[#fn:r911|911]]</sup> ), and snow farming, that is, storage of snow (Grünewald et al., 2018 <sup>[[#fn:r912|912]]</sup> ). The effectiveness of snow management methods as adaptation to long-term climate change depends on sufficiently low air temperature conditions needed for snowmaking, water and energy availability, compliance with environmental regulations (de Jong, 2015), and ability to pay for investment and operating costs. When these requirements are met, evidence over the past decades shows that snow management methods have generally proven efficient in reducing the impact of reduced natural snow cover duration for many resorts (Dawson and Scott, 2013 <sup>[[#fn:r913|913]]</sup> ; Hopkins and Maclean, 2014 <sup>[[#fn:r914|914]]</sup> ; Steiger et al., 2017 <sup>[[#fn:r915|915]]</sup> ; Spandre et al., 2019a <sup>[[#fn:r916|916]]</sup> ). The number of skier visits was found to be 39% less sensitive to natural snow variations in Swiss ski resorts with 30% areal snowmaking coverage (representing the national average), compared to resorts without snowmaking (Gonseth, 2013 <sup>[[#fn:r917|917]]</sup> ). In some regions, many resorts (mostly smaller, low-elevation resorts) have closed due to unfavourable snow conditions brought on by climate change and/or the associated need for large capital investments for snowmaking capacities (e.g., in northeast USA; Beaudin and Huang, 2014 <sup>[[#fn:r918|918]]</sup> )). To offset loss in ski tourism revenue, a key adaptation strategy is diversification, offering other non-snow recreation options such as mountain biking, mountain coasters and alpine slides, indoor climbing walls and water parks, festivals and other special events (Figure 2.9; Hagenstad et al., 2018 <sup>[[#fn:r919|919]]</sup> ; Da Silva et al., 2019).

In the near term (2031–2050) and regardless of the greenhouse gas emission scenario, risks to snow reliability exist for many resorts, especially at lower elevation, although snow reliability is projected to be maintained at many resorts in North America (Wobus et al., 2017 <sup>[[#fn:r920|920]]</sup> ) and in the European Alps, Pyrenees and  Scandinavia (Marke et al., 2015 <sup>[[#fn:r921|921]]</sup> ; Steiger et al., 2017 <sup>[[#fn:r922|922]]</sup> ; Scott et al., 2019 <sup>[[#fn:r923|923]]</sup> ; Spandre et al., 2019a <sup>[[#fn:r924|924]]</sup> ; Spandre et al., 2019b <sup>[[#fn:r925|925]]</sup> ). At the end of the century (2081–2100), under RCP8.5, snow reliability is projected to be unviable for most ski resorts under current operating practices in North America, the European Alps and Pyrenees, Scandinavia and Japan, with some exceptions at high elevation or high-latitudes (Steiger et al., 2017 <sup>[[#fn:r926|926]]</sup> ; Wobus et al., 2017 <sup>[[#fn:r927|927]]</sup> ; Suzuki-Parker et al., 2018 <sup>[[#fn:r928|928]]</sup> ; Scott et al., 2019 <sup>[[#fn:r929|929]]</sup> ; Spandre et al., 2019a <sup>[[#fn:r930|930]]</sup> ; Spandre et al., 2019b <sup>[[#fn:r931|931]]</sup> ). Only few studies have used RCP2.6 in the context of ski tourism, and results indicate that the risks at the end of the century (2081–2100) are expected to be similar to the near term impacts (2031–2050) for RCP8.5 (Scott et al., 2019 <sup>[[#fn:r932|932]]</sup> ; Spandre et al., 2019a <sup>[[#fn:r933|933]]</sup> ).

The projected economic losses reported in the literature include an annual loss in hotel revenues of EUR 560 million  (2012 value) in Europe, compared to the period 1971–2000 under a 2°C global warming scenario (Damm et al., 2017 <sup>[[#fn:r935|935]]</sup> ). This estimate includes population projections but does not account for snow management. In the USA, Wobus et al. (2017) estimate annual revenue losses from tickets (skiing) and day fees (cross country skiing and snowmobiling) due to reduced snow season length, will range from 340–780 million USD in 2050 for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively, and from 130 million to 2 billion USD in 2090 for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 respectively, taking into account snow management and population projections. Total economic losses from these studies would be much higher if all costs were included (costs for tickets, transport, lodging, food and equipment). Regardless of the climate scenario, as risk of financial unviability increases, there are reported expectations that companies would need to forecast when their assets may become stranded assets and require devaluation or conversion to liabilities, and report this on their balance sheets (Caldecott et al., 2016 <sup>[[#fn:r936|936]]</sup> ). Economic impacts are projected to occur in other snow-based winter activities including events (e.g., ski races) and other recreation activities such as cross-country skiing, snowshoeing, backcountry skiing, ice climbing, sledding, snowmobiling and snow tubing. By 2050, 13 (out of 21) prior Olympic Winter Games locations are projected to exhibit adequate snow reliability under RCP2.6, and 10 under RCP8.5. By 2080, the number decreases to 12 and 8, respectively (Scott et al., 2018 <sup>[[#fn:r937|937]]</sup> ). Even for cities remaining cold enough to host ski competitions, costs are projected to rise for making and stockpiling snow, as was the case in Sochi, Russia in 2014 and Vancouver, Canada in 2010 (Scott et al., 2018 <sup>[[#fn:r938|938]]</sup> ), and preserving race courses through salting (Hagenstad et al., 2018 <sup>[[#fn:r939|939]]</sup> ).

In summer, cryosphere changes are impacting glacier-related activities (hiking, sightseeing, skiing, climbing and mountaineering) (Figure 2.8). In recent years, several ski resorts operating on glaciers have ceased summer operations due to unfavourable snow conditions and excessive operating costs (e.g., Falk, 2016). Snow management and snowmaking are increasingly used on glaciers (Fischer et al., 2016 <sup>[[#fn:r940|940]]</sup> ). Glacier retreat has led to increased moraine instability which can compromise hiker and climber safety along established trails and common access routes, for example, in Iceland (Welling et al., 2019 <sup>[[#fn:r941|941]]</sup> ), though it has made some areas in the Peruvian Andes more accessible to trekkers (Vuille et al., 2018 <sup>[[#fn:r942|942]]</sup> ). In response, some hiking routes have been adjusted and ladders and fixed anchors installed (Duvillard et al., 2015 <sup>[[#fn:r943|943]]</sup> ; Mourey and Ravanel, 2017 <sup>[[#fn:r944|944]]</sup> ). As permafrost thaws, rock falls on and off glaciers are increasingly observed, threatening the safety of hikers and mountaineers, for example, in Switzerland (Temme, 2015 <sup>[[#fn:r945|945]]</sup> ) and New Zealand (Purdie et al., 2015 <sup>[[#fn:r946|946]]</sup> ). Glacier retreat and permafrost thaw have induced major changes to iconic mountaineering routes in the Mont Blanc area with impacts on mountaineering practices, such as shifts in suitable climbing seasons, and reduced route safety (Mourey and Ravanel, 2017 <sup>[[#fn:r947|947]]</sup> ; Mourey et al., 2019 <sup>[[#fn:r948|948]]</sup> ). Cryosphere decline has also reduced opportunities for ice climbing and reduced attractions for summer trekking in the Cascade Mountains, USA (Orlove et al., 2019 <sup>[[#fn:r949|949]]</sup> ). In response to these impacts, tour companies have shifted to new sites, diversified to offer other activities or simply reduced their activities (Furunes and Mykletun, 2012 <sup>[[#fn:r950|950]]</sup> ) (Figure 2.9). Steps to improve consultation and participatory approaches to understand risk perception and design joint action between affected communities, authorities and operators, are evident, for example, in Iceland (Welling et al., 2019 <sup>[[#fn:r951|951]]</sup> ). In some cases, new opportunities are presented such as marketing ‘climate change tourism’ where visitors are attracted by ‘last chance’ opportunities to view a glacier; for example, in New Zealand (Stewart et al., 2016 <sup>[[#fn:r952|952]]</sup> ), in China (Wang et al., 2010 <sup>[[#fn:r953|953]]</sup> ) or through changing landscapes such as new lakes, for instance in Iceland (Þórhallsdóttir and Ólafsson, 2017 <sup>[[#fn:r954|954]]</sup> ), or to view the loss of a glacier, for example, in the Bolivian Andes (Kaenzig et al., 2016 <sup>[[#fn:r955|955]]</sup> ). The opening of a trekking route promoting this opportunity created tensions between a National Park and a local indigenous community in the Peruvian Andes over the management and allocation of revenue from the route (Rasmussen, 2019 <sup>[[#fn:r956|956]]</sup> ). The consequences of ongoing and future glacier retreat are projected to negatively impact trekking and mountaineering in the Himalaya (Watson and King, 2018 <sup>[[#fn:r957|957]]</sup> ). Reduced snow cover has also negatively impacted trekking in the Himalaya, since tourists find the mountains less attractive as a destination, and the reduced water availability affects the ability of hotels and campsites to serve visitors (Becken et al., 2013 <sup>[[#fn:r958|958]]</sup> ).

In summary, financial risks to mountain communities that depend on tourism for income, are high and include losses to revenues generated from recreation primarily in the winter season. Adaptation to cryosphere change for ski tourism focuses on snowmaking and is expected to be moderately effective for many locations in the near term (2031–2050), but it is unlikely to substantially reduce the risks in most locations in the longer term (end of century) ( ''high confidence'' ). Determining the extent to which glacier retreat and permafrost thaw impact upon overall visitor numbers in summer tourism, and how any losses or increased costs are offset by opportunities, is inconclusive. Furthermore, tourism is also impacted by cryospheric change that impacts on water resources availability, increasing competition for its use (Section 2.3.1.3).

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'''Figure 2.9'''

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'''Figure 2.9 | a) Documented number of individual adaptation actions distributed across seven of the high mountain regions addressed in this Chapter, with pie charts indicating the number of adaptation measures for sectors addressed in this chapter (left pie chart), and the relative proportion of these classified as either ‘formal’, ‘autonomous’ or ‘undefined’ (right pie […]'''
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[[File:5663c8409ff51deab2d5cb5f9d835eaa IPCC-SROCC-CH_2_9.jpg]]

Figure 2.9 | a) Documented number of individual adaptation actions distributed across seven of the high mountain regions addressed in this Chapter, with pie charts indicating the number of adaptation measures for sectors addressed in this chapter (left pie chart), and the relative proportion of these classified as either ‘formal’, ‘autonomous’ or ‘undefined’ (right pie chart). Note that for regions with less than five reported adaptation measures were excluded from the figure (i.e., Caucasus, Iceland and Alaska), however these are detailed in Table SM2.9. b) Number of publications reported in the assessed literature over time. In some cases, multiple adaptation measures are discussed in a single publication (Table SM2.9).

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