Editing IPCC:AR6/SROCC/Chapter-3 (section)

==== 3.2.4.2 Tourism ====

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Reductions in sea ice have facilitated an increase in marine and cruise tourism opportunities across the Arctic related to an increase in accessibility (Dawson et al., 2014 <sup>[[#fn:r856|856]]</sup> ; Johnston et al., 2017 <sup>[[#fn:r857|857]]</sup> ) ( ''high confidence'' ). While not exclusively ‘polar’, Alaska attracts the highest number of cruise passengers annually at just over one million; Svalbard attracts 40,000–50,000; Greenland 20,000–30,000; and Arctic Canada 3,500–5,000 (Johnston et al., 2017 <sup>[[#fn:r858|858]]</sup> ). Compared to a decade ago, there are more cruises on offer, ships travel further in a single season, larger vessels with more passenger berths are in operation, more purpose-built polar cruise vessels are being constructed, and private pleasure craft are appearing in the Arctic more frequently (Lasserre and Têtu, 2015 <sup>[[#fn:r859|859]]</sup> ; Johnston et al., 2017 <sup>[[#fn:r860|860]]</sup> ; Dawson et al., 2018 <sup>[[#fn:r861|861]]</sup> ). In Antarctica, almost 37,000 (predominantly shipborne) tourists visited in 2016–2017, with 51,707 during 2017–2018; there were 6700 tourists in 1992–1993 (the first year of record) (ATCM, 2018 <sup>[[#fn:r862|862]]</sup> ). Due to accessibility and convenience, these tourism operations are mostly based around the few ice-free areas of Antarctica, concentrated on the AP (Pertierra et al., 2017 <sup>[[#fn:r863|863]]</sup> ).

Canada’s Northwest Passage (southern route), which only saw occasional cruise ship transits in the early 2000s is now reliably accessible during the summer cruising season, and as a result has experienced a doubling and quadrupling of cruise and pleasure craft activity over the past decade (Johnston et al., 2017 <sup>[[#fn:r864|864]]</sup> ; Dawson et al., 2018 <sup>[[#fn:r865|865]]</sup> ). There is ''high confidence'' that demand for Arctic cruise tourism will continue to grow over the coming decade (Johnston et al., 2017 <sup>[[#fn:r866|866]]</sup> ). The anticipated implications of future climate change have become a driver for polar tourism. A niche market known as ‘last chance tourism’ has emerged whereby tourists explicitly seek to experience vanishing landscapes or seascapes, and natural and social heritage in the Arctic and Antarctic, before they disappear (Lemelin et al., 2010; Lamers et al., 2013 <sup>[[#fn:r867|867]]</sup> ).

Increases in polar cruise tourism pose risks and opportunities related to development, education, safety (including search and rescue), security within communities and environmental sustainability (Johnston et al., 2012a <sup>[[#fn:r868|868]]</sup> ; Johnston et al., 2012b <sup>[[#fn:r869|869]]</sup> ; Stewart et al., 2013 <sup>[[#fn:r870|870]]</sup> ; Dawson et al., 2014 <sup>[[#fn:r871|871]]</sup> ; Lasserre and Têtu, 2015 <sup>[[#fn:r872|872]]</sup> ; Stewart et al., 2015 <sup>[[#fn:r873|873]]</sup> ). In the Arctic, there are also risks and opportunities related to employment, health and well-being, and the commodification of culture (Stewart et al., 2013 <sup>[[#fn:r874|874]]</sup> ; Stewart et al., 2015 <sup>[[#fn:r875|875]]</sup> ). There is ''high confidence'' that biodiversity supported by ice-free areas, particularly those on the AP, are vulnerable to the introduction of terrestrial alien species via tourists and scientists (Chown et al., 2012 <sup>[[#fn:r876|876]]</sup> ; Huiskes et al., 2014 <sup>[[#fn:r877|877]]</sup> ; Hughes et al., 2015 <sup>[[#fn:r878|878]]</sup> ; Duffy et al., 2017 <sup>[[#fn:r879|879]]</sup> ; Lee et al., 2017a <sup>[[#fn:r880|880]]</sup> ) (Box 3.3) as well as to the direct impacts of humans (Pertierra et al., 2017 <sup>[[#fn:r881|881]]</sup> ). The tourism sector relies on a set of regulations that apply to all types of maritime shipping, yet cruise ships intentionally travel off regular shipping corridors and serve a very different purpose than other vessel types, so there is a need for region-specific governance regimes, specialised infrastructure, and focused policy attention (Dawson et al., 2014 <sup>[[#fn:r882|882]]</sup> ; Pashkevich et al., 2015 <sup>[[#fn:r883|883]]</sup> ; Pizzolato et al., 2016 <sup>[[#fn:r884|884]]</sup> ; Johnston et al., 2017 <sup>[[#fn:r885|885]]</sup> ). Private pleasure craft remain almost completely unregulated, and will pose unique risks in the future (Johnston et al., 2017 <sup>[[#fn:r886|886]]</sup> ).

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