Editing IPCC:AR6/WGI/Chapter-Atlas (section)

=== Atlas.4.5 Summary ===

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The rate of surface temperature increase has generally been more rapid in Africa than the global average and by at least 0.1°C–0.2°C during 1961–2015 ( ''high confidence'' ). Minimum temperatures have increased more rapidly than maximum temperatures over inland southern Africa ( ''medium confidence'' ). Since 1970, mean temperature over East Africa has shown an increasing trend but showed a decreasing trend in the previous 40 years ( ''medium confidence'' ).

The Horn of Africa has experienced significantly decreased rainfall during the long rains season from March to May ( ''high confidence'' ) and drying trends in this and other parts of Africa are attributable to oceanic influences ( ''high confidence'' ), resulting from both internal variability and anthropogenic causes. Drying over the Sahel in the last century was attributed to an increase in the South Atlantic SST and more recently over southern African as a response to anthropogenic-forced Indian Ocean warming. Drying over East Africa is associated with decadal natural variability in SSTs over the Pacific Ocean. The enhanced rainfall intensity over the Sahel in the last two decades is associated with increased greenhouse gases indicating an anthropogenic influence ( ''medium confidence'' ) ''.''

Relative to the late 20th century, annual mean temperature over Africa is projected to rise faster than the global average ( ''very high confidence'' ) with the increase ''likely'' to exceed 4°C by the end of the century under RCP8.5 emissions. The central interiors of southern and northern Africa are ''likely'' to warm faster than equatorial and tropical regions ( ''high confidence'' ).

There are contrasting signals in the projections of rainfall over some parts of Africa until the end of the 21st century ( ''high confidence'' ) though changes in any given region are generally projected with ''medium confidence.'' In regions of high or complex topography such as the Ethiopian Highlands, downscaled projections indicate increases in rainfall by the end of the 21st century. However, northern Africa and the south-western parts of South Africa are ''likely'' to have a reduction in precipitation under higher warming levels ( ''high confidence'' ). Over Western Africa, rainfall is projected to decrease in the western Sahel sub-region ( ''medium confidence'' ) and increase in the central Sahel sub-region ( ''low confidence'' ) and along the Guinea coast sub-region ( ''medium confidence'' ). Rainfall amounts are projected to increase over Eastern Africa ( ''medium confidence'' ). Southern Africa is projected to have a reduction in annual mean rainfall but increases in rainfall intensity by 2100 ( ''medium confidence'' ).

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