Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Chapter-10 (section)

===== 10.4.5.2.2 Crop production =====

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Since IPCC AR5, more studies have been done on different scales from local to global that focus on the differentiated projected impacts of climate change on the production and economics of various crops with rice, maize and wheat among the major crops receiving more attention. New research findings affirm that climate-change impacts, and will continue to significantly affect, crop production in diverse ways in particular areas all over Asia (Figure 10.6). An increasing number of sub-regional and regional studies using various modelling tools provide significant evidence on the overall projected impacts of climate change on crop production at the sub-regional and regional scales with clear indications of winners and losers among and within nations (see, for instance, [[#Mendelsohn--2014|Mendelsohn, 2014]] ; [[#Cai--2016|Cai et al., 2016]] ; [[#Chen--2016b|Chen et al., 2016b]] ; [[#Schleussner--2016|Schleussner et al., 2016]] ).

Beyond the usual research interest in crop yields which has dominated the current literature, recent studies, such as those in Japan, focus on the impacts of climate change on the ''quality'' of crops (see, for instance, [[#Sugiura--2013|Sugiura et al., 2013]] , for apple; as well as [[#Morita--2016|Morita et al., 2016]] , and [[#Masutomi--2019|Masutomi et al., 2019]] , for rice). A large-scale evaluation by [[#Ishigooka--2017|Ishigooka et al. (2017)]] shows that the increased risk in rice production brought about by temperature increase may be avoided by selecting an optimum transplanting date considering both yield and quality. More studies of this nature have to be conducted for other crops in different locations to better understand and adapt to the negative impacts of the changing climate on the quality of crops ( [[#Ahmed--2016|Ahmed and Stepp, 2016]] ).

New studies have projected the ''likely'' negative impact of pests in Asian agriculture. The golden apple snail ( ''Pomacea canaliculate'' ), which is among the world’s 100 most notorious invasive alien species, threatens the top Asian rice-producing countries, including China, India, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Vietnam, Thailand, Myanmar, the Philippines and Japan, with the predicted increase in climatically suitable habitats in 2080 ( [[#Lei--2017|Lei et al., 2017]] ). Similarly, a study by ( [[#Shabani--2018|Shabani et al., 2018]] ) in Oman projected that the pest of date palm trees, Dubas bug ( ''Ommatissus lybicus'' Bergevin), could reduce the crop yield by 50% under future climate scenarios.

While there is general agreement that CO 2 promotes growth and productivity of plants through enhanced photosynthesis, there remains uncertainty on the extent to which carbon fertilisation will influence agricultural production in Asia as it interacts with increasing temperatures, changing water availability and the different adaptation measures employed ( [[#Ju--2013|Ju et al., 2013]] ; [[#Jat--2016|Jat et al., 2016]] ; [[#ADB--2017b|ADB, 2017b]] ). As global warming compounds beyond 1.5°C, however, the likelihood of adverse impacts on agricultural and food security in many parts of developing Asia increases ( [[#Mendelsohn--2014|Mendelsohn, 2014]] ; [[#IPCC--2018b|IPCC, 2018b]] ). There is a growing trend towards more integrated studies and modelling that combines biophysical and socioeconomic variables (including management practices) in the context of changing climate to reduce uncertainty associated with future impacts of climate change on the agriculture sector (see, for instance, [[#Mason-D’Croz--2016|Mason-D’Croz et al., 2016]] ; [[#Smeets%20Kristkova--2016|Smeets Kristkova et al., 2016]] ; [[#Gaydon--2017|Gaydon et al., 2017]] ).

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