Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Chapter-13 (section)

==== 13.5.1.4 Forestry and Forest Products ====

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Climate change is altering the structure and function of European forests via changes in temperature, precipitation and atmospheric CO 2 , as well as through interaction with pests and fire ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#13.3.1|Section 13.3.1]] ; [[#Moreno--2018|Moreno et al., 2018]] ; [[#Morin--2018|Morin et al., 2018]] ; [[#Senf--2018|Senf et al., 2018]] ; [[#Orlova-Bienkowskaja--2020|Orlova-Bienkowskaja et al., 2020]] ). Species-specific responses of trees to drier summers ( [[#Vitali--2018|Vitali et al., 2018]] ) shape regional variability in European forest productivity in response to water and nutrient availability, heatwave and evaporative demand ( [[#Reyer--2014|Reyer et al., 2014]] ; [[#Kellomäki--2018|Kellomäki et al., 2018]] ). While warming and extended growing seasons have positive impacts on forest growth in cold areas in WCE and NEU ( [[#Pretzsch--2014|Pretzsch et al., 2014]] ; [[#Matskovsky--2020|Matskovsky et al., 2020]] ), EEU ( [[#Tei--2017|Tei et al., 2017]] ) and higher altitude ( [[#Sedmáková--2019|Sedmáková et al., 2019]] ), drought stress across Europe has been increasing ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#Primicia--2015|Primicia et al., 2015]] ; [[#Marqués--2018|Marqués et al., 2018]] ; [[#Ruiz-Pérez--2020|Ruiz-Pérez and Vico, 2020]] ). Combined with land use, climate change has increased large-scale forest mortality since the 1980s ( [[#Senf--2018|Senf et al., 2018]] ). Extreme events, such as the 2018 drought in WCE, caused widespread leaf shedding and tree mortality ( [[#Buras--2020|Buras et al., 2020]] ) with carryovers into 2019 ( [[#Schuldt--2020|Schuldt et al., 2020]] ), as well as bark beetle outbreaks ( [[#Netherer--2019|Netherer et al., 2019]] ) resulting in felling and cutting of more than 1 million ha of spruce forest and disrupting timber markets ( [[#Mauser--2021|Mauser, 2021]] ).

In response to 3°C GWL, forest productivity is projected to increase in NEU and altitudes, show mixed trends in WCE and decrease in SEU ( ''medium confidence'' ) ( [[#Reyer--2014|Reyer et al., 2014]] ). This trend is driven by increases in productivity of pine and spruce, and decreases of beech and oak, and excludes disturbances and management options ( [[#Reyer--2014|Reyer et al., 2014]] ). Water stress exacerbates the incidence from and effects of fire and other natural disturbances ( [[#13.3.1|Section 13.3.1]] ), resulting in forest productivity declines or cancelling out productivity gains from CO 2 ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#Seidl--2014|Seidl et al., 2014]] ; [[#Reyer--2017|Reyer et al., 2017]] ). In response to 1.7°C GLW, managed forest and unmanaged woodland areas are projected to decrease only minimally, while at GWL &gt;2.5°C losses are increasing for managed forest and unmanaged woodland ( [[#Harrison--2019|Harrison et al., 2019]] ). Reducing warming from 4°C GLW to below 1.7°C GLW would reduce the Europe-wide impacts on managed forest by 34% ( [[#Harrison--2019|Harrison et al., 2019]] ).

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