Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Chapter-2 (section)

=== FAQ 2.1 | Will species become extinct with climate change and is there anything we can do to prevent this? ===

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''Climate change is already posing major threats to biodiversity, and the most vulnerable plants and animals will probably go extinct. If climate change continues to worsen, it is expected to cause many more species to become extinct unless we take actions to improve the resilience of natural areas, through protection, connection and restoration. We can also help individual species that we care most about by reducing the stress that they are under from human activities, and even helping them move to new places as their climate space shifts and they need to shift to keep up.''

Climate change has already caused some species to become extinct and is expected to drive more species to extinction. Extinction of species has always occurred in the history of our planet, but human activities are accelerating this process, such that the estimated 10% of species that humans have driven to extinction in the past 10,000 years is roughly 1,000 times the natural background rate. Recent research predicts that climate change would add to that, with estimates that about one-third of all plant and animal species are at high risk of extinction by 2070 if climate change continues at its current rate. Species can adapt to some extent to these rapidly changing climate patterns. We are seeing changes in behaviour, dispersal to new areas as the climate becomes more suitable, and genetic evolution. However, these changes are small, and adaptations are limited. Species that cannot adapt beyond their basic climate tolerances (their ability to survive extremes of temperature or rainfall) or successfully reproduce in a different climate environment from that in which they have evolved, will simply disappear. In the Arctic, for example, the sea ice is melting and, unless there are deep cuts in greenhouse-gas emissions, will probably disappear in summer within the century. This means that the animals that have evolved to live on sea ice—polar bears and some seals—will become extinct soon after the ice disappears.

Fortunately, there are some things we can do to help. We can take action to assist, protect and conserve natural ecosystems and prevent the loss of our planet’s endangered wildlife, such as:

''‘Assisting’ the migration of species.'' This has many names, ‘assisted colonisation’, ‘assisted translocation’, ‘assisted migration’ and ‘assisted movement’. In effect, it is about helping endangered species to move to a new area with a good habitat for them to survive. ‘Passive’ assisted colonisation focusses on helping species move themselves, while the most ‘active’ form implies picking up individuals and transporting them to a new location. This is different from reintroductions that are already a normal part of conservation programs. Climate-driven translocations constitute moving plants or animals to an area where they have never lived historically, a new location that is now suitable for them due to climate change.

This active form of ‘assisted colonisation’ has been controversial, because exotic species can become invasive when they are moved between continents or oceans. For example, no one would advocate moving polar bears to Antarctica, as they would likely feast on native penguins, thus causing another conservation problem. However, moving species only a few hundred kilometers avoids most adverse outcomes, and this is often all that is needed to help a wild plant or animal cope with lower levels of climate change. In extreme cases, another type of assisted adaptation is to preserve species until we can stabilize then reverse climate change, and then reintroduce them to the wild. This might include moving them into zoos or into seed or frozen embryo banks.

''Extending protected zones and their connectivity.'' The ability of species to move to new locations and track climate change are very limited, particularly when a habitat has been turned into a crop field or a city. To help species move between their natural habitats, we can increase the connectedness of protected areas, or simply create small patches or corridors of semi-wild nature within a largely agricultural or inhabited region that encourages wildlife to move through an area, and in which they are protected from hunting and poisons. These semi-wild protected areas can be very small, like the hedgerows between fields in England that provide both a habitat for many flowers, birds and insects and corridors to move between larger protected areas. Alternatively, it can just be an abandoned field that is now growing ‘weeds’ and with a ban on use of pesticides or herbicides, hunting or farming. For instance, in the USA, private landowners get a tax break by making their land a ‘wildlife conservation’ area by using no pesticide, not cutting weeds too often, putting up brush piles and bird boxes for nesting by mammals and birds, and providing a stable water source.

Assisting, protecting and conserving natural ecosystems would help enhance biodiversity overall as well as aiding already endangered species. Diverse plant and animal communities are more resilient to disturbances, including climate change. A healthy ecosystem also recovers more quickly from increases in extreme events, such as floods, droughts and heat waves, that are a part of human-driven climate change. Healthy ecosystems are critical to prevent species’ extinctions from climate change, but are also important for human health and well-being, providing clean, plentiful water, cleaning the air, providing recreation and holiday adventures, and making people feel happier, calmer and more content.

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'''Figure FAQ2.1.1 |''' '''Possible actions to assist, protect and conserve natural ecosystems and prevent the loss of our planet’s endangered wildlife in the face of continued climate change.''' (Inspired by the Natural Alliance website© Chris Heward/GWCT).

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