Editing IPCC:AR6/WGIII/Chapter-6 (section)

==== 6.5.2.4 Bioenergy ====

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Climate change can affect biomass resource potential directly, via changes in the suitable range (i.e., the area where bioenergy crops can grow) and/or changes in yield, and indirectly, through changes in land availability. Increases in CO 2 concentration increase biomass yield; climate changes (e.g., temperature, precipitation, and so on) can either increase or decrease the yield and suitable range.

Climate change will shift the suitable range for bioenergy towards higher latitudes, but the net change in the total suitable area is uncertain ( ''high confidence'' ). Several studies show northward shifts in the suitable range for bioenergy in the northern hemisphere ( [[#Tuck--2006|Tuck et al. 2006]] ; [[#Barney--2010|Barney and DiTomaso 2010]] ; [[#Bellarby--2010|Bellarby et al. 2010]] ; [[#Hager--2014|Hager et al. 2014]] ; [[#Wang--2014a|Wang et al. 2014a]] ; [[#Preston--2016|Preston et al. 2016]] ; [[#Conant--2018|Conant et al. 2018]] ; [[#Cronin--2018|Cronin et al. 2018]] ), but the net effect of climate change on total suitable area varies by region, species, and climate model ( [[#Barney--2010|Barney and DiTomaso 2010]] ; [[#Hager--2014|Hager et al. 2014]] ; [[#Wang--2014a|Wang et al. 2014a]] ).

The effect of climate change on bioenergy crop yields will vary across region and feedstock ( ''high confidence'' ); however, in general, yields will decline in low latitudes ( ''medium confidence'' ) and increase in high latitudes ( ''low confidence'' ) ( [[#Haberl--2010|Haberl et al. 2010]] ; [[#Cosentino--2012|Cosentino et al. 2012]] ; [[#Preston--2016|Preston et al. 2016]] ; [[#Cronin--2018|Cronin et al. 2018]] ; [[#Mbow--2019|Mbow et al. 2019]] ). However, the average change in yield varies significantly across studies, depending on the feedstock, region, and other factors (Beringer et al. 2011; [[#Kyle--2014|Kyle et al. 2014]] ; [[#Mbow--2019|Mbow et al. 2019]] ; [[#Dolan--2020|Dolan et al. 2020]] ). Only a few studies extend the modelling of climate change impacts on bioenergy to quantify the effect on bioenergy deployment or its implications on the energy system ( [[#Calvin--2013|Calvin et al. 2013]] , 2019; [[#Kyle--2014|Kyle et al. 2014]] ; [[#Thornton--2017|Thornton et al. 2017]] ). These studies find that changes in deployment are of the same sign as changes in yield; that is, if yields increase, then deployment increases.

Some of the uncertainty in the sign and magnitude of the impacts of climate change on bioenergy potential is due to uncertainties in CO 2 fertilisation (the increase in photosynthesis due to increases in atmospheric CO 2 concentration) ( [[#Haberl--2011|Haberl et al. 2011]] ; [[#Bonjean%20Stanton--2016|Bonjean Stanton et al. 2016]] ; [[#Cronin--2018|Cronin et al. 2018]] ; [[#Solaun--2019|Solaun and Cerdá 2019]] ; [[#Yalew--2020|Yalew et al. 2020]] ). For example, earlier studies found that, without CO 2 fertilisation, climate change will reduce global bioenergy potential by about 16%; with CO 2 fertilisation, however, climate change increases this potential by 45% ( [[#Haberl--2011|Haberl et al. 2011]] ). However, newer studies in the USA find little effect of CO 2 fertilisation on switchgrass yield ( [[#Dolan--2020|Dolan et al. 2020]] ). There is also a considerable uncertainty across climate and crop models in estimating bioenergy potential ( [[#Hager--2014|Hager et al. 2014]] ).

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