Editing IPCC:AR6/WGIII/Chapter-6 (section)

==== 6.5.2.5 Thermal Power Plants ====

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The operation of thermal power plants will be affected by climate change, deriving from changes in the ambient conditions like temperature, humidity and water availability ( [[#Schaeffer--2012|Schaeffer et al. 2012]] ) ( ''high confidence'' ). Changes in ambient temperature have relatively small impacts on coal-fired and nuclear power plants (Rankine cycle); however, gas-fired power plants (Brayton or combined-cycle) may have their thermal efficiency and power output significantly decreased ( [[#De%20Sa--2011|De Sa and Al Zubaidy 2011]] ; [[#Schaeffer--2012|Schaeffer et al. 2012]] ). Droughts decrease potential cooling water for thermal power plants and increase the probability of water outlet temperatures exceeding regulatory limits, leading to lower production or shutdowns. Thermal power utilisation has been reported to be, on average, 3.8% lower during drought years globally ( [[#van%20Vliet--2016c|van Vliet et al. 2016c]] ), and further significant decreases in available thermal power plant capacity due to climate change are projected ( [[#Koch--2014|Koch et al. 2014]] ; [[#van%20Vliet--2016b|van Vliet et al. 2016b]] ; [[#Yalew--2020|Yalew et al. 2020]] ). An increase in climate-related nuclear power disruptions has been reported in the past decades globally ( [[#Ahmad--2021|Ahmad 2021]] ).

Carbon capture may increase cooling water usage significantly, especially in retrofits, with up to 50% increase in water usage for coal-fired power plants globally, depending on the CCS technology (Rosa et al. 2020) ( [[#6.4|Section 6.4]] ). In Asia, planned coal capacity is expected to be vulnerable to droughts, sea level rise, and rising air temperatures, and this may be exacerbated by incorporating carbon capture ( [[#Wang--2019c|Wang et al. 2019c]] ). Recently, however, studies have proposed designs of CCS with a minimal increase in water requirements ( [[#Magneschi--2017|Magneschi et al. 2017]] ; [[#Mikunda--2021|Mikunda et al. 2021]] ).

Older thermal power plants can be retrofitted to mitigate climate impacts by altering and redesigning the cooling systems ( [[#Westlén--2018|Westlén 2018]] ), although the costs for these solutions may be high. For example, dry cooling may be used instead of once-through cooling; however, it lowers thermal efficiency and would leave plants vulnerable to ambient temperature increase ( [[#Ahmad--2021|Ahmad 2021]] ). Closed-circuit cooling is much less sensitive to water temperature than once-through cooling ( [[#Bonjean%20Stanton--2016|Bonjean Stanton et al. 2016]] ). Modifying policies and regulation of water and heat emissions from power plants may also be used to mitigate plant reliability problems induced by climate change ( [[#Eisenack--2016|Eisenack 2016]] ; [[#Mu--2020|Mu et al. 2020]] ), albeit with potential impacts for other water users and ecology. Improvements in water use and thermal efficiencies and the use of transmission capabilities over large geographical regions to mitigate risks on individual plants are also possible mitigation options ( [[#Miara--2017|Miara et al. 2017]] ).

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