Editing IPCC:AR6/SROCC/Chapter-2 (section)

=== 2.3.7 Migration, Habitability and Livelihoods ===

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High mountain communities have historically included mobility in their sets of livelihood strategies, as a means to gain access to production zones at different elevations within mountain zones and in lowland areas, and as a response to the strong seasonality of agricultural and pastoral livelihoods. Cryosphere changes in high mountain areas have influenced human mobility and migration during this century by altering water availability and increasing exposure to mass movements and floods and other cryospheric induced disasters (Figure 2.7) (Barnett et al., 2005 <sup>[[#fn:r989|989]]</sup> ; Carey et al., 2017 <sup>[[#fn:r990|990]]</sup> ; Rasul and Molden, 2019 <sup>[[#fn:r991|991]]</sup> ). These changes affect three forms of human mobility: transhumant pastoralism, temporary or permanent wage labour migration and displacement, in which entire communities resettle in new areas.

Transhumant pastoralism, involving movements between summer and winter pastures, is a centuries old practice in high mountain areas (Lozny, 2013 <sup>[[#fn:r992|992]]</sup> ). In High Mountain Asia and other regions, it is declining due to both climatic factors, including changes in snow distribution and glaciers, and to non-climatic factors, and is projected to continue declining, at least in the short term ( ''medium evidence, high agreement'' ). The changes in snow and glaciers adversely affect herders at their summer residences and winter camps in the Himalaya (Namgay et al., 2014 <sup>[[#fn:r993|993]]</sup> ) and in Scandinavian mountains (Mallory and Boyce, 2018 <sup>[[#fn:r994|994]]</sup> ). Reduced winter snowfall has led to poorer pasture quality in Nepal (Gentle and Maraseni, 2012 <sup>[[#fn:r995|995]]</sup> ) and India (Ingty, 2017 <sup>[[#fn:r996|996]]</sup> ). Other climate change impacts, including erratic snowfall patterns and a decrease in rainfall, are perceived by herders in Afghanistan, Nepal and Pakistan to have resulted in vegetation of lower quality and quantity (Shaoliang et al., 2012 <sup>[[#fn:r997|997]]</sup> ; Joshi et al., 2013 <sup>[[#fn:r998|998]]</sup> ; Gentle and Thwaites, 2016 <sup>[[#fn:r999|999]]</sup> ). Heavy snowfall incidents in winter caused deaths of a large number of livestock in northern Pakistan in 2009 (Shaoliang et al., 2012 <sup>[[#fn:r1000|1000]]</sup> ). Herders in Nepal reported of water scarcity in traditional water sources along migration routes (Gentle and Thwaites, 2016 <sup>[[#fn:r1001|1001]]</sup> ). Increased glacier melt water has caused lakes on the Tibetan Plateau to increase in size, covering pasture areas and leading pastoralists to alter their patterns of seasonal movement (Nyima and Hopping, 2019 <sup>[[#fn:r1002|1002]]</sup> ). However, rising temperatures, with associated effects on snow cover, have some positive impacts. Seasonal migration from winter to summer pastures start earlier in Northern Pakistan, and residence in summer pasture lasts longer (Joshi et al., 2013 <sup>[[#fn:r1003|1003]]</sup> ), as it does in Afghanistan (Shaoliang et al., 2012 <sup>[[#fn:r1004|1004]]</sup> ).

Wage labour migration is also a centuries old practice in the Himalaya, the Andes and the European Alps (Macfarlane, 1976 <sup>[[#fn:r1005|1005]]</sup> ; Cole, 1985 <sup>[[#fn:r1006|1006]]</sup> ; Viazzo, 1989 <sup>[[#fn:r1007|1007]]</sup> ). Studies show that migration is a second-order effect of cryosphere changes, since the first-order effects, a decrease in agricultural production (Section 2.3.1.3.2), have led to increased wage labour migration to provide supplementary income in a number of regions ( ''medium evidence, high agreement)'' . Wage labour migration linked to cryosphere changes occurs on several time scales, including short-term, long-term and permanent migration, and on different spatial scales. Though migration usually takes place within the country of origin, and sometimes within the region, cases of international migration have also been recorded (Merrey et al., 2018 <sup>[[#fn:r1008|1008]]</sup> ). The studies since AR5 on migration driven by cryosphere changes are concentrated in High Mountain Asia and the Andes, supporting the finding, reported in AR5 Working Group II (Section 12.7), that stress on livelihoods is an important driver of climate change induced migration. The research on such migration also supports the finding in SR15 (Section 4.3.5.6) that migration can have mixed outcomes on reducing socioeconomic vulnerability, since cases of increase and of reduction of vulnerability are both found in migration from high mountain regions that is driven by cryosphere changes.

Changing water availability, mass movements and floods are cryosphere processes which drive wage labour migration ( ''medium evidence, high agreement'' ). A debris flow in central Nepal in 2014, in a region where landslides have increased in recent decades, led more than half the households to migrate for months (van der Geest and Schindler, 2016 <sup>[[#fn:r1009|1009]]</sup> ). In the Santa River drainage, Peru, rural populations have declined 10% between 1970–2000, and the area of several major subsistence crops also declined (Bury et al., 2013 <sup>[[#fn:r1010|1010]]</sup> ). Research in this region suggests that seasonal wage labour migration from small basins within the main Santa basin is largest in the small drainages in which glacier retreat has reduced melt water flow most significantly; where this process is not as acute, and streamflow is less reduced, migration rates are lower  (Wrathall et al., 2014 <sup>[[#fn:r1011|1011]]</sup> ). A study from a region in the central Peruvian Andes shows that the residents of the villages that have the highest dependence on glacier melt water travel further and stay away longer than the residents of the villages where glacier melt water forms a smaller portion of stream flow (Milan and Ho, 2014 <sup>[[#fn:r1012|1012]]</sup> ). However, the inverse relation between reliance on cryosphere-related water sources and migration was noted in a case in the Naryn River drainage in Kyrgyzstan, where the villages that are more dependent on glacier melt water had lower, rather than higher, rates of wage labour migration than the villages which were less dependent on it; the villages with lower rates of such migration also had more efficient water management institutions than the others (Hill et al., 2017 <sup>[[#fn:r1013|1013]]</sup> ). Several studies, which project cryosphere-related emigration to continue in the short term, emphasise decreased water availability, due to glacier retreat as a driver in Kyrgyzstan (Chandonnet et al., 2016 <sup>[[#fn:r1014|1014]]</sup> ) and Peru (Oliver-Smith, 2014 <sup>[[#fn:r1015|1015]]</sup> ), and to reduced snow cover in Nepal (Prasain, 2018 <sup>[[#fn:r1016|1016]]</sup> ). In most cases, climate is only one of several drivers (employment opportunities and better educational and health services in lowland areas are others).

Several studies show that wage labour migration is more frequent among young adults than among other age groups, supporting the observation in AR5 that climate change migrants worldwide are concentrated in this age ( ''limited evidence, high agreement'' ). This age-specific pattern is found in a valley in Northern Pakistan in which agriculture relies on glacier melt water for irrigation; as river flow decreases, the returns to agricultural labour have declined, and emigration has increased, particularly among the youth, who are assigned, by local cultural practices, to carry out the heaviest work (Parveen et al., 2015 <sup>[[#fn:r1017|1017]]</sup> ). Emigration has increased in recent decades from two valleys in highland Bolivia which rely on glacier melt water, as water supplies have declined, though other factors also contribute to emigration, including land fragmentation, increasing household needs for income, the lack of local wage-labour opportunities and an interest among the young in educational opportunities located in cities (Brandt et al., 2016 <sup>[[#fn:r1018|1018]]</sup> ). In Nepal, young members of high-elevation pastoral households impacted by cryosphere change have been increasingly engaged in tourism and labour migration since 2000 (Shaoliang et al., 2012 <sup>[[#fn:r1019|1019]]</sup> ); similar responses are reported for Sikkim in the Indian Himalaya (Ingty, 2017 <sup>[[#fn:r1020|1020]]</sup> ). A recent study documents the inter-generational dynamics of emigration from a livestock raising community in the Peruvian Andes, where glacier retreat has led to reduced streamflow that supports crucial dry season pasture (Alata et al., 2018 <sup>[[#fn:r1021|1021]]</sup> ). Though people 50 years old or older in this community are accustomed to living in the high pasture zones, younger people use livestock raising as a means of accumulating capital. They sell off their animals and move to towns at lower elevations. This loss of young adults has reduced the capacity of households to undertake the most demanding tasks, particularly in periods of inclement weather, accelerating the decline of herding. As a result, the human and animal populations of the communities are shrinking.

Recent research on cryosphere driven migration shows some cases of complex livelihood interactions or feedback loops, in which migration is not merely a result of changes in agricultural livelihoods, but also has impacts, either positive or negative, on these livelihoods ( ''medium confidence).'' In some instances, the different livelihood strategies complement each other to support income and well-being. A review of migration in the Himalaya and Hindu Kush found that households that participated in labour migration and received remittances had improved adaptive capacity, and lowered exposure to natural hazards (Banerjee et al., 2018 <sup>[[#fn:r1022|1022]]</sup> ). In other cases, the households and communities, which undertake wage labour migration, encounter conflicts or incompatibilities between migration and agricultural livelihoods. Sustainable management of land, water and other resources is highly labour intensive, and hence labour mobility constrains and limits the adoption of sustainable practices (Gilles et al., 2013 <sup>[[#fn:r1023|1023]]</sup> ). Moreover, the labour available to a household is differentiated by age. In Northern Pakistan, where cryosphere changes are reducing streamflow the emigration of young people has led to a decline not only in the labour in fields and orchards, but also a decline in the maintenance of irrigation infrastructure, leading to an overall reduction of the agricultural livelihoods in the community (Parveen et al., 2015 <sup>[[#fn:r1024|1024]]</sup> ).

In addition to affecting pastoral transhumance and increasing wage labour migration, cryosphere changes impact human mobility by creating cases of displacement. These cases differ from wage labour migration because they involve entire communities. As a result, they are irreversible, unlike cases in which individuals undertake long-term or permanent migration from their communities but retain the possibility of returning, because, for example, some relatives or former neighbours have remained in place. In this way, these cases of displacement represent cryosphere driven challenges to habitability. Though natural hazards have historically led some communities to relocate, cryosphere changes have contributed to instances of displacement. Unreliable water availability and increased risks of natural hazards are responsible for resettlement of villages in certain high mountain areas (McDonald, 1989 <sup>[[#fn:r1025|1025]]</sup> ; Parveen et al., 2015 <sup>[[#fn:r1026|1026]]</sup> ). A village in Western Nepal moved to lower elevation after decreasing snowfall reduced the flow of water in the river on which their pastoralism and agriculture depended (Barnett et al., 2005 <sup>[[#fn:r1027|1027]]</sup> ). Three villages in Nepal faced severe declines in agricultural and pastoral livelihoods because decreased snow cover led to reduced soil moisture and to the drying up of springs, which were the historical source of irrigation water; in conjunction with an international non-governmental organisation (INGO), the residents planned a move to a lower area (Prasain, 2018 <sup>[[#fn:r1028|1028]]</sup> ).

The issue of habitability arises in the cases, mentioned above, of communities that relocate after floods or debris flows destroy houses and irrigation infrastructure, or damage fields and pastures. It occurs as well in the cases of households with extensive long-term migration, where agricultural and pastoral livelihoods are undermined by reduced water supply caused by cryospheric change (Barnett et al., 2005 <sup>[[#fn:r1029|1029]]</sup> ). In addition, the loss of cultural values, including spiritual and intrinsic values (Section 2.3.6), can contribute to decisions to migrate (Kaenzig, 2015 <sup>[[#fn:r1030|1030]]</sup> ). Combined with the patterns of permanent emigration, this issue of habitability raises the issue of limits to adaptation in mountain areas (Huggel et al., 2019 <sup>[[#fn:r1031|1031]]</sup> ). Projections of decreased streamflow by 2100 in watersheds with strong glacier melt water components in Asia, Europe, and North and South America (Section 2.3.1.1) indicate that threats to habitability may continue through this period and affect the endeavours of achieving the SDGs in developing countries (Rasul et al., 2019 <sup>[[#fn:r1032|1032]]</sup> ).

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