Editing IPCC:AR6/WGI/TS (section)

===== TS.4.3.2.1 Africa =====

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'''Additional regional changes in Africa, besides those described in Section TS.4.3.1, include a projected decrease in total precipitation in the northernmost and southernmost regions ( ''high confidence'' ), with Western Africa having a west-to-east pattern of decreasing-to-increasing precipitation ( ''medium confidence'' ). Increases in heavy precipitation that can lead to pluvial floods ( ''high confidence'' ) are projected for most African regions, even as increasing dry CIDs (aridity; hydrological, agricultural and ecological droughts; fire weather) are projected in the western part of Western Africa, Southern Africa and Northern Africa and the Mediterranean regions ( ''medium'' to ''high confidence'' ). Links to chapters 8.4, 11.3, 11.6, 11.9, 12.4, Atlas.4'''
In addition to the main changes summarized above and in Section TS.4.3.1, additional details per CID are given below.

'''Heat and cold:''' Observed and projected increases in mean temperature and a shift toward heat extreme characteristics are broadly similar to the generic pattern described in Section TS.4.3.1. Links to chapters 2.3.1.1.2, 11.3, 11.9, 12.4.1.1, Atlas.4.2, Atlas.4.4

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[[File:727e1fb83cd7f937f79ce8d9d92b8312 IPCC_AR6_WGI_TS_Figure_25.png]]

'''Figure TS.25 |''' '''Distribution of projected changes in selected climatic impact-driver (CID) indices for selected regions for Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phases 5 and 6 (CMIP6, CMIP5) and Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) model ensembles.''' ''The intent of this figure is to show that many CID projections for multiple global warming levels and scenarios time slices are available for all the AR6 WGI reference regions and are based on both global (CMIP5, CMIP6) and regional (CORDEX) model ensembles.'' Different indices are shown for different region: for Eastern Europe and North Asia, the mean number of days per year with maximum temperature exceeding 35°C; for Central America, the Caribbean, South West Asia, South Asia and South East Asia, the mean number of days per year with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Heat Index exceeding 41°C; for Australasia, East Asia and Russian Far East, the average shoreline position change; for South America, Europe and Africa, the mean change in 1-in-100-year river discharge per unit catchment area (m <sup>3</sup> s <sup>–1</sup> km <sup>–2</sup> ); and for North America, the median change in the number of days with snow water equivalent (SWE) over 100 mm. For each box plot, the changes or the climatological values are reported with respect to, or compared to, the recent past (1995–2014) period for 1.5°C, 2 <sup>°</sup> C and 4 <sup>°</sup> C global warming levels and for mid-century (2041–2060) or end-century (2081–2100) periods for the CMIP5 and CORDEX RCP8.5 and RCP2.6 and CMIP6 SSP5-8.5 and SSP1-2.6 scenarios ensembles. Links to chapters Figures 12.5, 12.6, 12.9, 12.SM.1, 12.SM.2, and 12.SM.6

'''Wet and dry:''' Mean precipitation changes have been observed over Africa, but the historical trends are not spatially coherent ( ''high confidence'' ). North Eastern Africa, East Southern Africa and Central Africa have experienced a decline in rainfall since about 1980 and parts of West Africa an increase ( ''high confidence'' ). Increases in the frequency and/or the intensity of heavy rainfall have been observed in East and West Southern Africa, and the eastern Mediterranean region ( ''medium confidence'' ). Increasing trends in river flood occurrence can be identified beyond 1980 in East and West Southern Africa ( ''medium confidence'' ) and Western Africa ( ''high confidence'' ). However, Northern Africa and West Southern Africa are ''likely'' to have a reduction in precipitation. Over West Africa, rainfall is projected to decrease in the western Sahel subregion and increase along the Guinea Coast subregion ( ''medium confidence'' ). Rainfall is projected to increase over Eastern Africa ( ''medium confidence'' ). Links to chapters 8.3.1.6, 11.4, 11.9, 12.4.1.2, Atlas.4.2, Atlas.4.4, Atlas.4.5

Precipitation declines and aridity trends in Western Africa, Central Africa, Southern Africa and the Mediterranean co-occur with trends towards increased agricultural and ecological droughts in the same regions ( ''medium confidence'' ). Trends towards increased hydrological droughts have been observed in the Mediterranean ( ''high confidence'' ) and Western Africa ( ''medium confidence'' ). These trends correspond with projected regional increases in aridity and fire weather conditions ( ''high confidence'' ). Links to chapters 8.3.1.6, 8.4.1.6, 11.6, 11.9, 12.4.1.2

'''Wind:''' Mean wind, extreme winds and the wind energy potential in North Africa and the Mediterranean are projected to decrease across all scenarios ( ''high confidence'' ). Over Western Africa and Southern Africa, a future significant increase in wind speed and wind energy potential is projected ( ''medium confidence'' ). There is a projected decrease in the frequency of tropical cyclones making landfall over Madagascar, East Southern Africa and East Africa ( ''medium confidence'' ). Links to chapters 12.4.1.3

'''Snow and ice:''' There is ''high confidence'' that African glaciers and snow have very significantly decreased in the last decades and that this trend will continue in the 21st century. Links to chapters 12.4.1.4

'''Coastal and oceanic:''' Relative sea level has increased at a higher rate than GMSL around Africa over the last 3 decades. The present day 1-in-100-year extreme total water level (ETWL) is between 0.1 m and 1.2 m around Africa, with values around 1 m or above along the East and West Southern and Central Eastern Africa coasts. Satellite-derived shoreline retreat rates up to 1 m yr <sup>–1</sup> have been observed around the continent from 1984 to 2015, except in South Eastern Africa, which has experienced a shoreline progradation (growth) rate of 0.1 m yr <sup>–1</sup> over the same period. Links to chapters 12.4.1.5

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