Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Chapter-12 (section)

==== 12.3.7.3 Vulnerability ====

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Rapid changes in temperature and precipitation regimes make terrestrial ecosystems highly vulnerable to climate change ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#Salas--2016|Salas et al., 2016]] ; [[#Fuentes-Castillo--2020|Fuentes-Castillo et al., 2020]] ) (Figure 12.7). Terrestrial ecosystems dominated by exotic species (e.g., pine) with lower landscape heterogeneity and degraded soils and that are close to settlements and roads are highly vulnerable to wildfires in comparison to forests dominated by native trees ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#Altamirano--2013|Altamirano et al., 2013]] ; [[#Castillo-Soto--2013|Castillo-Soto et al., 2013]] ; [[#Cóbar-Carranza--2014|Cóbar-Carranza et al., 2014]] ; [[#Salas--2016|Salas et al., 2016]] ; [[#Bañales-Seguel--2018|Bañales-Seguel et al., 2018]] ; [[#Gómez-González--2018|Gómez-González et al., 2018]] ; [[#Sarricolea--2020|Sarricolea et al., 2020]] ). Changes in land use, artificial forestation, deforestation, agricultural abandonment and urbanisation have provoked a permanent degradation of old-growth forests, putting at risk the biodiversity, recreation and ecotourism ( ''medium confidence: medium evidence, high agreement'' ) ( [[#Rojas--2013|Rojas et al., 2013]] ; [[#Nahuelhual--2014|Nahuelhual et al., 2014]] ). Marine coastal ecosystems such as dunes, sandy beaches and wetlands show high deterioration, decreasing their ability to mitigate extreme events ( ''medium confidence: low evidence'' , ''high agreement'' ) ( [[#González--2017|González and Holtmann-Ahumada, 2017]] ; [[#Ministerio%20de%20Medio%20Ambiente%20de%20Chile--2019|Ministerio de Medio Ambiente de Chile, 2019]] ).

The water sector shows a very high vulnerability ( ''high confidence'' ) (Figure 12.7) mainly due to weak water governance focused on market aspects (e.g., inter-sectoral water transactions, setting rates, granting concessions, waiving the water right) ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#Hurlbert--2013|Hurlbert and Diaz, 2013]] ; [[#Valdés-Pineda--2014|Valdés-Pineda et al., 2014]] ; [[#Barría--2019|Barría et al., 2019]] ; [[#Hurlbert--2019|Hurlbert and Gupta, 2019]] ; [[#Muñoz--2020a|Muñoz et al., 2020a]] ; [[#Urquiza--2020b|Urquiza and Billi, 2020b]] ). Potable water and adequate sanitation are available in SWS; however, water availability in Chile is unevenly distributed in rural communities ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#Valdés-Pineda--2014|Valdés-Pineda et al., 2014]] ; [[#Nelson-Nuñez--2019|Nelson-Nuñez et al., 2019]] ). Spatial differences in water availability are enhanced by strong population growth, economic development, mining activities and the high dependence of agriculture on irrigation ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#Stathatou--2016|Stathatou et al., 2016]] ; [[#Northey--2017|Northey et al., 2017]] ; [[#Fercovic--2019|Fercovic et al., 2019]] ). Droughts in SWS are a major threat to water security ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#Aitken--2016|Aitken et al., 2016]] ; [[#Núñez--2017|Núñez et al., 2017]] ) as river streamflows are highly dependent on the interannual to decadal climate conditions, snow melting processes and rainfall events ( [[#Boisier--2016|Boisier et al., 2016]] ) and impacted by land uses and changes in irrigated agriculture ( ''medium confidence: medium evidence, high agreement'' ) ( [[#Vicuña--2013|Vicuña et al., 2013]] ; [[#Fuentes--2021|Fuentes et al., 2021]] ).

Energy and water needs of large-scale mining activities make this socioeconomic sector particularly vulnerable to climate change; additionally, the relative lack of power of resource-poor communities living in areas where such mining makes claims on water and energy resources renders these communities even more vulnerable ( [[#Odell--2018|Odell et al., 2018]] ). Given new conditions generated by changes in a growing demand and climate change, mining companies will need to increase resilience to extreme events; additionally, the declining concentrations of minerals of interest in raw materials require greater energy input for extraction and processing and new methods to avoid associated emissions are required ( [[#Hodgkinson--2018|Hodgkinson and Smith, 2018]] ).

Urban and agriculture sectors are vulnerable to climate change ( ''medium confidence: medium evidence, high agreement'' ) (Figure 12.7), increasing problems and demand for water ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#Monsalves-Gavilán--2013|Monsalves-Gavilán et al., 2013]] ; [[#Meza--2014|Meza et al., 2014]] ; [[#Fercovic--2019|Fercovic et al., 2019]] ). Important health problems (e.g., pathogenic infections, changes in vector-borne diseases, heat-related mortality, lower neurobehavioural performance) have been associated with agriculture, mining and thermal power production activities in SWS ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#Muñoz-Zanzi--2014|Muñoz-Zanzi et al., 2014]] ; [[#Valdés-Pineda--2014|Valdés-Pineda et al., 2014]] ; [[#Pino--2015|Pino et al., 2015]] ; [[#Cortés--2016|Cortés, 2016]] ; [[#Berasaluce--2019|Berasaluce et al., 2019]] ; [[#Muñoz--2019a|Muñoz et al., 2019a]] ; [[#Ramírez-Santana--2020|Ramírez-Santana et al., 2020]] ).

Large-scale agricultural growth has increased vulnerability to climate change by disfavouring traditional agriculture, the homogenisation of the biophysical landscape and the replacement of traditional crops and native forests with exotic species like pines and eucalyptus ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#Torres--2015|Torres et al., 2015]] ), where farmers’ perceptions of climate change are highly dependent on educational level and access to meteorological information ( ''low confidence'' ) ( [[#Roco--2015|Roco et al., 2015]] ). Agricultural systems owned by Indigenous Peoples (i.e., Mapuche, Quechua and Aymara farmers) seem to pose a lower level of vulnerability to drought and higher response capacity than non-Indigenous farmers thanks to the use of the traditional knowledge of specific management techniques and the tendency to conserve species or varieties of crops tolerant to water scarcity ( ''low confidence'' ) ( [[#Montalba--2015|Montalba et al., 2015]] ; [[#Saylor--2017|Saylor et al., 2017]] ; [[#Meldrum--2018|Meldrum et al., 2018]] ). Fishery- and aquaculture-related livelihoods are vulnerable to climate and non-climate drivers ( ''medium confidence: medium evidence, high agreement'' ), such as sea surface warming and precipitation reduction ( [[#Handisyde--2017|Handisyde et al., 2017]] ; [[#Soto--2019|Soto et al., 2019]] ; [[#González--2021|González et al., 2021]] ), changes in upwelling intensity ( ''low confidence'' ) ( [[#Oyarzún--2019|Oyarzún and Brierley, 2019]] ; [[#Ramajo--2020|Ramajo et al., 2020]] ), eutrophication and harmful algal bloom (HAB) events ( [[#Almanza--2019|Almanza et al., 2019]] ), a lack of observational elements and data management ( [[#Garçon--2019|Garçon et al., 2019]] ) and events such as earthquakes and tsunamis ( [[#Marín--2019|Marín, 2019]] ).

Chile has experienced accelerated economic growth, which has reduced poverty; however, important geographical, economic and educational inequalities remain ( [[#Repetto--2016|Repetto, 2016]] ). The Chilean healthcare system has become more equitable and responsive to the population’s needs (e.g., the Bono AUGE healthcare reform programme); however, the high relative inequalities in terms of income ( [[#OECD--2018|OECD, 2018]] ), education level and rural–urban factors are determinants of quality of care, health system barriers and differential access to healthcare ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#Frenz--2014|Frenz et al., 2014]] ). Exposure and vulnerability to psychosocial risks in SWS show significant inequalities in times of disasters such as earthquakes according to socioeconomic, geographic and gender factors ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#Labra--2002|Labra, 2002]] ; [[#Vitriol--2014|Vitriol et al., 2014]] ; [[#Quijada--2018|Quijada et al., 2018]] ), which are increased by the absence of local planning and drills and the lack of coordination ( [[#Vitriol--2014|Vitriol et al., 2014]] ). Indigenous Peoples have the highest levels of vulnerability in Chile in terms of income, basic needs and access to services to climate change ( ''low confidence'' ) ( [[#Parraguez-Vergara--2016|Parraguez-Vergara et al., 2016]] ).

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