Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Chapter-13 (section)

==== 13.5.2.1 Crops and Livestock ====

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Farm management adaptation options to climate change include changing sowing and harvest dates, changes in cultivars and irrigation, and selecting alternative crops (Figures 13.14, 13.15; [[#Donatelli--2015|Donatelli et al., 2015]] ). Irrigation is effective at reducing yield loss from heat stress and drought, for example, for wheat and maize (Figures 13.14, 13.15), but it increases demand for water withdrawals ( [[#Siebert--2017|Siebert et al., 2017]] ; [[#Ruiz-Ramos--2018|Ruiz-Ramos et al., 2018]] ; [[#Feyen--2020|Feyen et al., 2020]] ). Where sufficient water and infrastructure is available, irrigation of wheat reverses yield losses across Europe at 2°C GWL to become gains, while yield losses in maize in SEU are reduced from as much as 80 to 11% ( [[#Feyen--2020|Feyen et al., 2020]] ). Extensive droughts during the past two decades have caused many irrigated systems in SEU to cease production ( [[#Stahl--2016|Stahl et al., 2016]] ) indicating limited adaptive capacity to heat and drought ( ''medium confidence'' ). Water management for food production on land is becoming increasingly complex due to the need to satisfy other social and environmental water demands (KR3, [[#13.10|Section 13.10]] ) and is limited by costs and institutional coordination ( [[#Iglesias--2015|Iglesias and Garrote, 2015]] ). Agricultural water management adaptation practices include irrigation, reallocating water to other crops, improving use efficiency and soil water conservation practices ( [[#Iglesias--2015|Iglesias and Garrote, 2015]] ). In-season forecasts of climate impacts on yield were successfully used for European wheat during the 2018 drought ( [[#van%20der%20Velde--2018|van der Velde et al., 2018]] ).

Changes to cultivars and sowing dates can reduce yield losses (Figure 13.15) but are insufficient to fully ameliorate losses projected &gt;3°C GWL, with an increase of risk from north to south and for crops growing later in the season such as maize and wheat ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#Ruiz-Ramos--2018|Ruiz-Ramos et al., 2018]] ; [[#Feyen--2020|Feyen et al., 2020]] ). Adaptations for early maturing reduce yield loss by moving the cycle towards a cooler part of year, and also constrains the increases in irrigation water demands, but reduce the period for photosynthesis and grain filling ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#Ruiz-Ramos--2018|Ruiz-Ramos et al., 2018]] ; [[#Holzkämper--2020|Holzkämper, 2020]] ). Crop breeding for drought and heat tolerance can improve sustainability of agricultural production under future climate ( [[#Costa--2019|Costa et al., 2019]] ), particularly in SEU where drought-tolerant varieties provide 30% higher yields than drought-sensitive varieties at 3°C GWL ( [[#Senapati--2019|Senapati et al., 2019]] ). Soil management practices, such as crop residue retention or improved crop rotations, generally undertaken as a mitigation option to increase soil carbon sequestration, are not commonly evaluated for adaptation in European agriculture ( [[#Hamidov--2018|Hamidov et al., 2018]] ).

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'''Figure 13.15 |''' '''Projected yield changes with climate change for 1.''' '''5°C (RCP2.6), 1.7°C (RCP4.5) and 2°C GWL (RCP8.5).''' Altered crop management and associated water demand shows:

'''(a)''' relative yield changes under climate change and elevated CO 2 for current production systems (i.e., rain-fed and irrigated simulations weighted by current the share of rain-fed and irrigated areas);

'''(b)''' yield increase if current predominantly rain-fed areas are fully irrigated;

'''(c)''' additional yield increases for irrigated production systems if new varieties are used to avoid losses associated with faster development and earlier maturity under climate change; and

'''(d)''' water demand for irrigated systems with current varieties in currently rain-fed areas ( [[#Webber--2018|Webber et al., 2018]] ). Relative yield changes to a period centred on 2055 relative to a baseline period centred on 1995. Box plots are Europe’s aggregate results considering current production areas (a) or current rain-fed areas (b,c), showing uncertainty across crop models and general circulation models. The maps are for the crop model median for RCP4.5 (1.7°C GWL) with GFDL-CM3.

Adaptation practices for livestock systems on European farms commonly focus on controlling cooling, shade provision and management of feeding times ( [[#Gauly--2013|Gauly et al., 2013]] ). These options are used in indoors-reared species ( [[#Gauly--2013|Gauly et al., 2013]] ) but are limited in mountain pastures ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#Deléglise--2019|Deléglise et al., 2019]] ). Response options to insufficient amounts and quality of fodder include changing feeding strategies ( [[#Kaufman--2017|Kaufman et al., 2017]] ; [[#Ammer--2018|Ammer et al., 2018]] ), feed additives ( [[#Ghizzi--2018|Ghizzi et al., 2018]] ), relocating livestock linked to improved pasture management, organic farming ( [[#Rojas-Downing--2017|Rojas-Downing et al., 2017]] ; [[#EEA--2019c|EEA, 2019c]] ), importing fodder and reducing stock ( [[#Toreti--2019b|Toreti et al., 2019b]] ). Dairy systems that maximise the use of grazed pasture are considered more environmentally sustainable but are not fully supported by policy and markets ( ''medium confidence'' ) ( [[#Hennessy--2020|Hennessy et al., 2020]] ). Genetic adaptation of crops, pasture and animals could be a long-term adaptation strategy ( [[#Anzures-Olvera--2019|Anzures-Olvera et al., 2019]] ; [[#Deléglise--2019|Deléglise et al., 2019]] ). Control strategies for pathogens and vectors include indoor or outdoor rearing and applying new diagnostic tools or drugs ( [[#Bett--2017|Bett et al., 2017]] ; [[#Vercruysse--2018|Vercruysse et al., 2018]] ), and regulations to ensure safe trade and reduce the risk of introducing or spreading pests (European Comission, 2016).

Agroecological systems provide adaptation options that rely on ecological process (e.g., soil organic matter recycling and functional diversification) to lower inputs without impacting productivity (Cross-Chapter Box NATURAL in Chapter 2; [[#Aguilera--2020|Aguilera et al., 2020]] ). High-frequency rotational grazing and mixed livestock systems are agroecological strategies to control pathogens ( [[#Aguilera--2020|Aguilera et al., 2020]] ). Agroforestry, integrating trees with crops (silvoarable), livestock (silvopasture), or both (agrosilvopasture), can enhance resilience to climate change (Chapter 5), but implementation in Europe needs improved training programmes and policy support ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#Hernández-Morcillo--2018|Hernández-Morcillo et al., 2018]] ).

Technological innovations, including ‘smart farming’ and knowledge training, can strengthen farmers’ responses to climate impacts ( [[#Deléglise--2019|Deléglise et al., 2019]] ; [[#Kernecker--2019|Kernecker et al., 2019]] ), although strong belief in ‘technosalvation’ by farmers ( [[#Ricart--2019|Ricart et al., 2019]] ) can reduce the solution space and timing of adaptation options. Agricultural policy, market prices, new technology and socioeconomic factors play a more important role in short-term farm-level investment decisions than climate-change impacts ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#Juhola--2016|Juhola et al., 2016]] ; [[#Hamidov--2018|Hamidov et al., 2018]] ).

Effective policy guidance is needed to increase the climate resilience of agriculture ( [[#Spinoni--2018|Spinoni et al., 2018]] ; [[#Toreti--2019b|Toreti et al., 2019b]] ). Financial measures include simplifying procedures for obtaining subsidies, and insurance premiums and interest rates that incentivise adoption of climate-friendly agricultural methods ( [[#Garrote--2015|Garrote et al., 2015]] ; [[#Iglesias--2015|Iglesias and Garrote, 2015]] ; [[#Zakharov--2017|Zakharov and Sharipova, 2017]] ; [[#Hamidov--2018|Hamidov et al., 2018]] ; [[#Wiréhn--2018|Wiréhn, 2018]] ). The EU’s Common Agricultural Policy has increasingly focused on environmental outcomes ( [[#Alliance%20Environnement--2018|Alliance Environnement, 2018]] ) but does not sufficiently provide for adaptation measures ( [[#Leventon--2017|Leventon et al., 2017]] ; [[#Pe’er--2020|Pe’er et al., 2020]] ). Limits to European farm-level adaptation include lack of resources for investment, political urgency to adapt, institutional capacity, access to adaptation knowledge and information from other countries ( [[#EEA--2019c|EEA, 2019c]] ).

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