Editing IPCC:AR6/WGIII/Chapter-6 (section)

=== 6.5.3 Impacts on Energy Consumption ===

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Heating demand will decrease, and cooling demand will increase in response to climate change. Peak load may increase more than energy consumption, and the changing spatial and temporal load patterns can impact transmission and needs for storage, demands-side management, and peak-generating capacity ( ''high confidence'' ).

Climate change will decrease heating demands, especially in cold regions, and it will increase cooling demands, especially in warm regions ( [[#Yalew--2020|Yalew et al. 2020]] ). Recent studies report significant net impacts, with the commercial and industrial sectors and substantial air condition penetration driving an increase in energy demand ( [[#Davis--2015|Davis and Gertler 2015]] ; [[#Levesque--2018|Levesque et al. 2018]] ; [[#De%20Cian--2019|De Cian and Sue Wing 2019]] ; [[#van%20Ruijven--2019|van Ruijven et al. 2019]] ; [[#Yalew--2020|Yalew et al. 2020]] ). For example, globally, [[#De%20Cian--2019|De Cian and Sue Wing (2019)]] found a 7–17% increase in energy consumption due to climate change in 2050, with the range depending on the climate change scenario. The overall effects of climate change on building energy consumption are regionally dependent. For example, Zhang et al. (2019) find that reduced heating will outweigh increased cooling in the residential buildings in Europe, but the reverse will be true in China.

While many studies have focused on energy consumption, climate extremes are expected to alter peak energy demands, with the potential for blackouts, brownouts, and other short-term energy system impacts ( [[#Yalew--2020|Yalew et al. 2020]] ). For example, peak energy demand during heatwaves can coincide with reduced transmission and distribution capacity at higher temperatures. In large cities, extreme heat events increase cooling degree days significantly, with the urban heat island effect compounding the impact ( [[#Morakinyo--2019|Morakinyo et al. 2019]] ). One study found that total electricity consumption at the end of the century in the USA could increase on average by 20% during summer months and decrease on average by 6% in the winter ( [[#Ralston%20Fonseca--2019|Ralston Fonseca et al. 2019]] ). While the average increase in consumption is modest, climate change is projected to have severe impacts on the frequency and intensity of peak electricity loads ( [[#Auffhammer--2017|Auffhammer et al. 2017]] ). [[#Bartos--2016|Bartos et al. (2016)]] find that peak per-capita summertime load in the USA may rise by 4.2–15% by mid-century. Efficient cooling technologies and other demand-side measures can limit cooling energy loads during periods of particularly high demand (IEA 2018; [[#Dreyfus--2020|Dreyfus et al. 2020]] ).

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