Editing IPCC:AR6/WGI/Chapter-4 (section)

==== 4.4.3.2 El Niño–Southern Oscillation ====

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The AR5 assessed that it is ''very likely'' that the ENSO will remain the dominant mode of interannual variability in the future but did not specify its change in near term. A subset of CMIP5 models that simulate the ENSO Bjerknes index most realistically show an increase of ENSO SST amplitude in the near-term future and decline thereafter ( [[#Kim--2014|Kim et al., 2014]] ). However, detection of robust near-term changes of ENSO SST variability in response to anthropogenic forcing is difficult to achieve due to pronounced unforced low-frequency modulations of ENSO ( [[#Wittenberg--2009|Wittenberg, 2009]] ; [[#Maher--2018|Maher et al., 2018]] ; [[#Wengel--2018|Wengel et al., 2018]] ). Figure 4.10 in [[#4.3.3.2|Section 4.3.3.2]] , using CMIP6 models, also shows no robust change in ENSO SST variability in the near term.

While there is no strong model consensus on the change in amplitude of ENSO SST variability, the amplitude of ENSO-associated rainfall variability ''likely'' increases ( [[#Power--2013|Power et al., 2013]] ; [[#Cai--2015|Cai et al., 2015]] ). Analysis of CMIP6 models shows a slight increasing trend in amplitude of rainfall variability over Niño 3.4 region in the near term attributable to mean moisture increase, regardless of changes in ENSO SST variability (Figure 4.10). However, there are no distinguishable changes in the rainfall variability among five SSPs with significant model spread in the near term. Hence, no robust change in amplitude of ENSO SST and rainfall variability is expected in the near term although the rainfall variability slightly increases ( ''medium confidence'' ).

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