Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Chapter-10 (section)

==== 10.4.5.3 Food Security ====

<div id="h3-21-siblings" class="h3-siblings"></div>

[[#FAO--2001|FAO (2001)]] defines food security as ‘a situation that exists when all people, at all times, have physical, social and economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food that meets their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life’. There is significant evidence that climate change significantly undermines both agricultural production and food security in Asia ( [[#ADB--2017b|ADB, 2017b]] ). Increasing evidence from sub-regions and individual countries suggests that climate-related hazards, such as increasing temperature, changing rainfall, SLR, drought, flooding and the more frequent and intense occurrences of El Niño–Southern Oscillation events, all impact agricultural production with significant effects on food security. All these hazards interact with non-climatic factors, such as competing demand for scarce water resources, rural–urban migration, food prices and increasing food demand in the long term, and poor governance, among other things, that may worsen food insecurity in the region ( [[#Montesclaros--2021|Montesclaros and Teng, 2021]] ).

In West Asia, particularly in Saudi Arabia and Yemen, increasing water scarcity brought about by temperature rise is anticipated to have a severe impact on agriculture and food production that undermines food security ( [[#Al-Zahrani--2019|Al-Zahrani et al., 2019]] ; [[#Baig--2019|Baig et al., 2019]] ). Saudi Arabia, for instance, was forced to phase out its wheat production starting in 2016 and fully rely on importation to conserve its drying fossil water resources ( [[#Al-Zahrani--2019|Al-Zahrani et al., 2019]] ), a situation which is also linked to a water governance issue.

In Central Asia, a study using a bioeconomic farm model shows very large differences in climate change impacts across farming systems at the subnational level. Large-scale commercial farms in the northern regions of Kazakhstan will have positive income gains, while small-scale farms in arid zones of Tajikistan will experience a negative impact with ''likely'' effects on farm income security ( [[#Bobojonov--2014|Bobojonov and Aw-Hassan, 2014]] ). Impacts on farmers’ income in western Uzbekistan will also significantly vary and could fall by as much as 25% depending on the extent of temperature increase and water-use efficiency ( [[#Bobojonov--2016|Bobojonov et al., 2016]] ).

In a regional study among South Asian countries using an integrated assessment modelling framework, changes in rice and wheat productions brought about by climate change are anticipated to engender wild price volatilities in the markets ( [[#Cai--2016|Cai et al., 2016]] ). Price spikes are projected for 2015–2040 in all South Asian regions with India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka predicted to experience increasingly much higher rice and wheat prices than under the baseline scenario, creating major concerns about food affordability and food security. This will ''likely'' severely affect the overall economic growth of these countries since they are mainly agriculture-driven economies.

A study on mapping global patterns of drought risk projected an increase in drought frequency and intensity in the populated areas of South to Central Asia extensively used for crop and livestock production with serious repercussion to food security and potential civil conflict in the medium to long term ( [[#Carrão--2016|Carrão et al., 2016]] ). In Southeast Asia, a Philippine study on the relationship between seasonal rainfall, agricultural production and civil conflict suggests that the projected change towards wetter rainy seasons and drier dry seasons in many parts of the country will lead to more civil conflict ( [[#Crost--2018|Crost et al., 2018]] ) with negative implications for food and human security. Similarly, floods and higher food prices are also associated with higher risks of social unrest in Asia that may undermine food security ( [[#Hendrix--2015|Hendrix and Haggard, 2015]] ; [[#Ide--2021|Ide et al., 2021]] ).

Food insecurity will be localised across Asia where one part of the country or sub-region will be more food secured while the others, more insecure. This will require in-country or sub-regional trade and development cooperation to minimise the adverse impacts of food insecurity associated with the changing climate ( [[#Li--2014a|Li et al., 2014a]] ; [[#Abid--2016|Abid et al., 2016]] ).

<div id="10.4.5.4" class="h3-container"></div>

<span id="key-drivers-to-vulnerability-1"></span>