Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Chapter-4 (section)

=== 4.5.7 Projected Risks to Human Mobility and Migration ===

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SR1.5 found with ''medium confidence'' that migration is expected to increase with further warming, but that there are major knowledge gaps preventing more detailed assessments ( [[#Hoegh-Guldberg--2018|Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2018]] ). However, as in AR5, there was no specific focus on hydrological changes-induced migration.

In general, the projected population growth in at-risk areas, especially in low-income countries, is expected to increase future migration and displacement ( [[#McLeman--2016|McLeman et al., 2016]] ; [[#Rigaud--2018|Rigaud et al., 2018]] ). For example, a study looking at potential flood exposure found that low-income countries, particularly in Africa, are at higher risk for flood-induced displacement ( [[#Kakinuma--2020|Kakinuma et al., 2020]] ). One model, focusing on slow-onset climate impacts, such as water stress, crop failure and sea level rise, projected between 31–72 million people (RCP2.6, SSP4) and 90–143 million people (RCP8.5, SSP4) internally displaced by 2050 in sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia and Latin America ( [[#Rigaud--2018|Rigaud et al., 2018]] ). Another estimate, incorporating temperature increase and precipitation, projects that asylum applications to the EU could increase by between 0.098 million (RCP4.5) and 0.66 million (RCP8.5) yr –1 , as a consequence of temperature increases in agricultural areas of low-income countries ( [[#Missirian--2017|Missirian and Schlenker, 2017]] ) ( ''limited evidence; medium agreement'' ).

More detailed local and regional models are needed, incorporating migrant destinations ( [[#Abel--2019|Abel et al., 2019]] ) and immobility ( [[#Zickgraf--2018|Zickgraf, 2018]] ).

In summary, research that projects future migration changes due to climate-induced hydrological changes is ''limited'' and shows significant uncertainties about the number of migrants and their destinations ( ''limited evidence; medium agreement'' ).

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