Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Chapter-8 (section)

==== 8.4.5.4 Future Livelihood Challenges in the Context of Risks and Adaptation Limits ====

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The climate change risks in this section are addressed through the lens of livelihoods, human, food, water and ecosystem security, building on key impacts and risks since AR5 ( [[#Oppenheimer--2014|Oppenheimer et al., 2014]] ) and key findings from SR1.5°C ( [[#Hoegh-Guldberg--2018|Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2018]] ; [[#Roy--2018|Roy et al., 2018]] ), SROCC ( [[#IPCC--2019b|IPCC, 2019b]] ), and SRCCL ( [[#IPCC--2019a|IPCC, 2019a]] ). The AR5 WGII risk tables ( [[#IPCC--2014b|IPCC, 2014b]] ), updated in SR1.5°C ( [[#Roy--2018|Roy et al., 2018]] ) offer an interesting entry point as they show ''high confidence'' on key observed impacts and limits to the adaptation of natural and social systems that are compounded by the effects of poverty and inequality on water scarcity, ecosystem alteration and degradation, coastal cities in relation to sea level rise, cyclones and coastal erosion, food systems and human health ( [[#Hoegh-Guldberg--2018|Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2018]] ; [[#Roy--2018|Roy et al., 2018]] ). As a consequence, climate change risks pose substantially negative impacts on climate-sensitive livelihoods of smallholder farmers, fisheries communities, urban poor, Indigenous Peoples and informal settlements, with limits to adaptation evidenced by the loss of income, ecosystems and health, and increasing migration ( [[#Roy--2018|Roy et al., 2018]] ). The compounded effects of socioeconomic development patterns and climate change impacts are worst in climate-sensitive ecosystems in the Arctic and SIDS ( [[#Roy--2018|Roy et al., 2018]] ). The future risks to these climate-sensitive ecosystems and livelihoods are potentially severe given their current high exposure to climate hazards, and high number of vulnerable of people exposed for example in the SIDS (see also Chapter 16; [[#Ahmadalipour--2019|Ahmadalipour et al., 2019]] ; [[#Liu--2021|Liu and Chen, 2021]] ). Residual losses then may be unavoidable for some ecosystems and livelihoods affecting the vulnerable groups of people and countries as consequences of structural poverty, socioeconomic, gender and ethnic inequalities, that marginalise and exclude and limit the development of adaptive capacity for future changes ( [[#Olsson--2014|Olsson et al., 2014]] ; [[#Roy--2018|Roy et al., 2018]] ).

In SIDS, key risks are represented by losses of livelihoods of coastal settlements, ecosystem services, infrastructure and economic stability, exhibiting limits to adaptation in the face of local people’s coping strategies capacity ( [[#Hoegh-Guldberg--2019a|Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2019a]] ). There is ''high confidence'' that sea level rise in SIDS combined with extreme flooding events will threaten the future livelihoods of coastal communities ( [[#Hoegh-Guldberg--2018|Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2018]] ; [[#Roy--2018|Roy et al., 2018]] ).

In the Global South, the increasing heat associated with warming global temperature represents an important risk due to losses in labour productivity, crop failures and livelihood security. These involve economic losses and health effects, as well as increasing deaths that are anticipated to have significant implications for poverty, inequality and equity ( [[#Carleton--2017|Carleton, 2017]] ; [[#Roy--2018|Roy et al., 2018]] ). The increasing temperature, droughts and excessive rain lead to successive crop failures and reduced productivity that are affecting children’s growth and health in developing countries ( [[#Hanna--2016|Hanna and Oliva, 2016]] ). Likewise, the expected global temperature increase by the end of the century will have devastating health consequences for children, associated with sea level rise, heatwaves, affecting the incidence of malaria and dengue, and malnutrition, especially in Asian ( [[#Ghosh--2018|Ghosh et al., 2018]] ) and African countries, such as Chad, Mali, Niger and Somalia ( [[#Hanna--2016|Hanna and Oliva, 2016]] ; [[#Ghosh--2018|Ghosh et al., 2018]] ; [[#Clark--2020|Clark et al., 2020]] ).

The incidence of floods also increases the occurrence of diseases (e.g., diarrhoea and respiratory infections) and undernutrition in children living in informal settlements and slums in Asia ( [[#Ghosh--2018|Ghosh, 2018]] ) and Africa ( [[#Clark--2020|Clark et al., 2020]] ). Women and children are currently bearing the worst impacts of climate hazards, and are unable to move due to assigned gender roles to avoid flooding risks in highly vulnerable slums in Bangladesh. This results in poor living conditions and causes the women emotional distress ( [[#Ayeb-Karlsson--2020|Ayeb-Karlsson et al., 2020]] ). This region experienced severe floods associated with death, injury, infectious disease, mental and emotional stress and cultural disruptions—dimensions of non-economic losses that are often not accounted for in disaster relief policies ( [[#Chiba--2017|Chiba et al., 2017]] ) and these greatly influence the ability to build adaptive capacities for future hazards ( [[#Roy--2018|Roy et al., 2018]] ). In the same way, risks to female-headed households that have insecure tenure rights are greater. This group was the most affected by flooding in 2018 in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, costing 3–4% of the country’s GDP and affecting 4.5 million people ( [[#Erman--2019|Erman et al., 2019]] ).

In the Himalayas (part of the Hindu Kush Himalaya, HKH) temperature warming is expected to increase up to 2°C by 2050 ( ''high confidence'' ), increasing flooding and bringing larger risks to food and water security for mountain communities that are already highly vulnerable given limited livelihood options and supporting infrastructure in these regions ( [[#Mishra--2017|Mishra et al., 2017]] ). In Nepal, agriculture-orientated livelihoods are reported to be negatively affected by an increase in landslide frequency (92.6%) and intensity (97.3%) over a 20 years period (1996–2016) ( [[#van%20Der%20Geest--2016|van Der Geest and Schindler, 2016]] ). The catastrophic landslide in 2014 caused material losses associated with loss of crops and land to poor households that were 14 times greater than their annual gains. The NELD losses were emotional distress and fear of new event occurrence, showing that poorest households may not fully recover following an extreme event. This example is indicative of the representative future climate risks to these populations. Livelihood diversification is commonly adopted by poor households and smallholders in Nepal to reduce the impacts of extreme rainfall and landslides. However, there are limits to these strategies given poor household infrastructure that challenge risk reduction, as a result, it is expected that migration to neighbouring countries as Bhutan or India will increase ( [[#van%20Der%20Geest--2016|van Der Geest and Schindler, 2016]] ).

Expected future risks to vulnerable communities and Indigenous Peoples include losses across a range of impacts. A larger household comparative analysis across mountain regions in Africa, Asia and Southeast Asia shows that more than 60% of the population reported losses from residual impacts concerning droughts, floods, cyclones, sea level rise, glacier retreat and desertification, despite autonomous adaptation involving changing food consumption and formal aid from the government ( [[#Warner--2013|Warner and Van der Geest, 2013]] ). Among Indigenous Peoples in the Global South, for example in the Brazilian Amazon, Australia and Botswana, locally autonomous adaptive measures were not sufficient to avoid significant losses (some irreversible in case of lost habitats). The barriers and insufficient adaptive capacities are also intrinsically linked to historical marginalisation and vulnerability of the population in these countries ( [[#Maru--2014|Maru et al., 2014]] ).

In the Arctic, warming temperature and sea level rise constitute key risks to the loss of identity and culture of Indigenous People. This is associated with migration and relocation due to livelihood deterioration resulting from coastal erosion, permafrost thaw and reduced fisheries productivity ( [[#Roberts--2015|Roberts and Andrei, 2015]] ; [[#Roy--2018|Roy et al., 2018]] ). These risks and losses often encompass various non-economic losses, such as the loss of identity, that cannot be replaced or economically compensated (see also [[#8.3.5|Section 8.3.5]] ).

Likewise, in the Amazon basin, climate change hazards of severe droughts and floods ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#Cox--2004|Cox et al., 2004]] ; [[#IPCC--2019a|IPCC, 2019a]] ) are revealing limits to adaptation among the majority of riverine communities and smallholder farmers with residual impacts associated with losses of income, fisheries and agricultural productivity, as well as affecting non-economic livelihood dimensions, such as the ability to attend school and losses of place and identity through forced migration ( [[#Maru--2014|Maru et al., 2014]] ; [[#Pinho--2015|Pinho et al., 2015]] ; [[#Lapola--2018|Lapola et al., 2018]] ). Furthermore, the expansion of the agricultural frontier and construction of large dams to supply energy needs in the Amazon basin are amplifying the vulnerabilities and reducing future adaptive capacities of smallholders and the fisheries communities to climate risk ( [[#Bro--2018|Bro et al., 2018]] ; [[#Castro-Diaz--2018|Castro-Diaz et al., 2018]] ). It is expected that a global temperature warming level of 2°C by 2050 in the Amazon will lead to a significant reduction of water flow in major rivers leading to further food and water insecurity ( [[#Betts--2018|Betts et al., 2018]] ). This is affecting forest- and river-dependent livelihoods in the region (Box 8.6; [[#Lapola--2018|Lapola et al., 2018]] ).

The glacier retreat associated with the increase in global warming temperature has also shown losses that are permanent and related to a sense of belonging and cultural heritage for glacier countries. The most negative livelihood impacts are experienced by poor households in the Peruvian Andes and Himalayas ( [[#Jurt--2015|Jurt et al., 2015]] ). The risks for smallholder livelihoods in glaciated regions are expected to increase as the shrinking glaciers result in increased water competition, crop failure and extreme flooding ( [[#Kraaijenbrink--2017|Kraaijenbrink et al., 2017]] ). For example, in Bhutan adaptive measures such as changing crops, developing irrigation channels and sharing water among community members are still insufficient to avoid L&amp;D associated with the dramatically reduced water availability ( [[#Kusters--2013|Kusters and Wangdi, 2013]] ; [[#Warner--2013|Warner and Van der Geest, 2013]] ). In high-mountain regions, the intersections of agro-pastoralist marginalisation, difficulty of access and ecological sensitivity contribute to residual impacts associated with extreme climate hazards, which can lead to irreversible losses and challenge poverty reduction efforts ( [[#Mishra--2019|Mishra et al., 2019]] ).

In semiarid West Africa, longer-term local adaptation is in place to help poor households deal with severe droughts. This involves reducing household and cattle water consumption, planting drought-tolerant crops and adopting integrated crop–livestock production for efficiency, with migration being either seasonal and or permanent. These measures are mostly effective ( [[#van%20der%20Geest--2019|van der Geest et al., 2019]] ). Likewise, in Ethiopia, Northern Kenya and Senegal, adaptation has advanced with external government and non-government organisation (NGO) support ( [[#Schäfer--2019|Schäfer et al., 2019]] ). This includes technological innovations and insurance for households ( [[#Schäfer--2019|Schäfer et al., 2019]] ), but is not enough to prevent losses in already impoverished households ( [[#Schäfer--2019|Schäfer et al., 2019]] ).

There is ''robust evidence'' that future risks to climate-sensitive livelihoods, such as agriculture, livestock and fisheries are amplified by gender, age, wealth inequalities ( [[#Wangui--2018|Wangui and Smucker, 2018]] ), ethical background and geography ( [[#Piggott-McKellar--2020|Piggott-McKellar et al., 2020]] ; [[#Thomas--2020|Thomas and Benjamin, 2020]] ), as well as by ecological thresholds that challenge autonomous adaptation among vulnerable disadvantaged communities mostly in the Global South ( [[#Roy--2018|Roy et al., 2018]] ; [[#Mechler--2020|Mechler et al., 2020]] ).

The assessment also points towards the fact that there are strong linkages between national-level vulnerability (e.g., Figure 8.6) and individual vulnerability at household or livelihood scale. Various disadvantaged and marginalised groups or communities within a society are significantly constrained in terms of the ability to build adaptive capacities for future climate change threats due to limited access to resources or government support for planned adaptation. Consequently, these linkages between regional, national and local vulnerability need more attention in research and practical adaptation strategies (vertical integration).

The next section discusses how risks emerge as a result of the failure in adaptation or failure to implement it, with particular attention to risks that are impossible to adapt to and lead to inevitable L&amp;D among poor households, livelihoods and countries.

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