Editing IPCC:AR6/SRCCL/Chapter-2 (section)

==== 2.4.1.3 Future changes of dust emissions ====

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There is no agreement about the direction of future changes in dust emissions. Atmospheric dust loading is projected to increase over the southern edge of the Sahara in association with surface wind and precipitation changes (Pu and Ginoux, 2018 <sup>[[#fn:r832|832]]</sup> ), while Evan et al. (2016) <sup>[[#fn:r833|833]]</sup> project a decline in African dust emissions. Dust optical depth (DOD) is also projected to increase over the central Arabian peninsula in all seasons, and to decrease over northern China from March-April-May to September-October-November (Pu and Ginoux 2018 <sup>[[#fn:r834|834]]</sup> ). Climate models project rising drought risks over the south-western and central US in the 21st century. The projected drier regions largely overlay the major dust sources in the US. However, whether dust activity in the US will increase in the future is not clear, due to the large uncertainty in dust modelling (Pu and Ginoux 2017 <sup>[[#fn:r835|835]]</sup> ). Future trends of dust emissions will depend on changes in precipitation patterns and atmospheric circulation ( ''limited evidence, high agreement'' ). However, implication of changes in human activities, including mitigation (e.g., bioenergy production) and adaption (e.g., irrigation) are not characterised in the current literature.

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