Editing IPCC:AR6/WGI/Chapter-4 (section)

==== 4.4.3.3 Indian Ocean Basin and Dipole Modes ====

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Important modes of interannual climate variability with pronounced climate impacts in the Africa–Indo-Pacific areas of the globe are the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), which is closely related to, and often coincides with, ENSO phases ( [[#Stuecker--2017|Stuecker et al., 2017]] ), and the Indian Ocean basin (IOB) mode. This is often described as a capacitor effect in response to ENSO ( [[#Xie--2009|Xie et al., 2009]] ; [[#Du--2013|Du et al., 2013]] ) and can feed back onto ENSO evolution ( [[#Cai--2019|Cai et al., 2019]] ). IOD and IOB are extensively described in [[IPCC:Wg1:Chapter:Annex-iv|Annex IV]] (Section AIV2.4).

The projected climate mean state changes in the tropical Indian Ocean resemble a positive IOD state, with faster warming in the west compared to the east. This mean state change will potentially lead to a reduction in the amplitude of IOD events, albeit with no robust change in IOD frequency ( [[#Cai--2014b|Cai et al., 2014b]] ). There is no robust evidence yet suggesting a cessation of IOD variability or a significant change in the IOB mode in the near-term.

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