Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Chapter-8 (section)

==== 8.4.5.5 Maladaptation as a Projected Future Risk Particularly for the Poor and Marginalised ====

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There is increasing evidence that maladaptation can lead to future risks to socio-ecological security. Adaptation measures focusing on short-term action can lead to adverse longer-term impacts to livelihoods and failures to address transboundary scales to avoid negative consequences for social and ecological systems ( [[#Warner--2013|Warner and Van der Geest, 2013]] ; [[#Roy--2018|Roy et al., 2018]] ; [[#Mechler--2019a|Mechler et al., 2019a]] ; see also [[IPCC:Wg2:Chapter:Chapter-5#5.13.3|Section 5.13.3]] ). Hence, maladaptation can intensify and even accelerate future risks as a result of climate change mitigation and adaptation policies when responses to climate change hazards are embedded within business-as-usual development approaches ( [[#Work--2019|Work et al., 2019]] ). For instance, in Cambodia, the conventional development strategies intertwined with climate change mitigation and adaptation initiatives are increasing the probability of maladaptive outcomes in the context of high informality, and conflicts among poor farmers exposed and vulnerable to flooding ( [[#Work--2019|Work et al., 2019]] ). The potential for maladaptation emerges from the vulnerability of precarious living conditions of informal poor farmers, not accounted for in climate mitigation and adaptation strategies for irrigation, protected areas management and reforestation projects funded by multilateral donors ( [[#Work--2019|Work et al., 2019]] ). As a consequence, losses emerge despite actions to prevent adverse impacts, and maladaptation instead becomes a vector of increased vulnerability for poor and vulnerable communities ( [[#Mechler--2019a|Mechler et al., 2019a]] ).

The maladaptation outcome also emerges as a failure of adaptation. In Ghana, poor farmers, facing crop yield failure during severe droughts further exacerbated by water use for irrigation have diversified their livelihoods (e.g., selling firewood for charcoal production).This is a form of maladaptation that can further increase their vulnerability to climate risks, compromising food production, income generation and sustainability ( [[#Antwi-Agyei--2018b|Antwi-Agyei et al., 2018b]] ). In Cambodia, governmental adaptation strategies focusing on reforestation and conservation measures are eroding local biodiversity, and crop irrigation strategies are compromising scarce water resources and also excluding poor farmers, who are susceptible to flooding, from decision making and benefits ( [[#Work--2019|Work et al., 2019]] ). Likewise, in Ethiopia, efforts of adaptation programmes to address droughts contribute to current unsustainable development trajectories among pastoralist communities, resulting in charcoal production, overgrazing, migration, conflict with other groups and marginalisation of livelihoods ( [[#Magnan--2016|Magnan et al., 2016]] ). In the Sudan, maladaptation outcomes for the poor population are linked to a dependency on a war economy and post-conflict power dynamics that are and will continue to affect sustainability and equity in the context of drought incidence ( [[#Young--2019|Young and Ismail, 2019]] ).

In Bangladesh, an expensive coastal climate-resilient infrastructure project could potentially increase the vulnerability of urban poor as they will remain in areas that are highly susceptible to flooding brought by sea level rise ( [[#Magnan--2016|Magnan et al., 2016]] ). In Central America, the lack of assessments of future climate variability on crop yield scenarios, coupled with lack of policymakers to incorporate autonomous local adaptation practices, could lead to an unsustainable trajectory for local communities and risk of maladaptation ( [[#Beveridge--2018|Beveridge et al., 2018]] ). In Bhutan, small-scale rice farmers have adopted water-sharing measures to avoid the impacts of reduced and uncertain precipitation levels associated with monsoons. However, these measures led to disruptions in social cohesion as conflicts over water sharing escalated ( [[#Mathew--2015|Mathew and Akter, 2015]] ). In the same region, local governments prioritise the glacier retreat as a perceived risk to flooding from dams, but overlook the slow and gradual impact of the deficit in precipitation that is negatively affecting rice productivity ( [[#Mathew--2015|Mathew and Akter, 2015]] ). In Burkina Faso, a region highly impacted by severe droughts, local communities have become less able to cope with droughts given a decline in cultural pastoralism and increased dependence on crops ( [[#van%20der%20Geest--2019|van der Geest et al., 2019]] ).

As seen, maladaptive responses to droughts, sea level rise and flooding are negatively affecting poor farmers, pastoralists, and rural and urban informal workers, increasing loss of crops, infrastructure, income, conflict and migration. Given the high risks of maladaptation to poor people this agenda should be given priority by development and planning sectors ( [[#Magnan--2016|Magnan et al., 2016]] ). The categories in Table 8.5 also represent important future compounding and complex risks that can emerge due to maladaptation ( ''high confidence'' ).

'''Table 8.5 |''' Categories of maladaptation as future risk and examples of outcomes and world regions based on literature assessment evidence.

{| class="wikitable"
|-
! Categories of risks to maladaptation

! Examples of outcomes

|-
| Uncertainty (climate events)

| Lack of knowledge of future climate extreme events hinder adaptation actions for the poor

|-
| Inequalities

| Exclusion of rights and access, and benefits of adaptation

|-
| Sustainability

| Further ecological degradation and biodiversity loss

|-
| Informality

| Reinforced vulnerabilities of the poor and marginalised populations

|-
| Poverty

| Increased vulnerabilities and risks of maladaptation

|-
| Scales (temporal and spatial)

| Negative trade-offs across short- and longer-term decisions, as well as transboundary issues resulting in increased likelihood of maladaptation

|-
| rowspan="5"| Regional evidence

| South Asia and Southeast Asia (Bangladesh, India, Indonesia, Maldives, Nepal and Thailand) (6) **

|-
| Africa (Ethiopia, Ghana, Malawi ) (3)

|-
| Central America (1)

|-
| Global South (2)

|-
| Global (1)

|}

Notes:

Confidence level ** ''medium'' (5–9 papers).

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