Editing IPCC:AR6/WGIII/Chapter-10 (section)

=== Box 10.4 | Three Illustrative Mitigation Pathways ===

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[[#10.7|Section 10.7]] presents the full set of scenarios in the AR6 database and highlights the broader trends of how the transport sector may transform in order to be compliant with different warming levels. This box elaborates on three illustrative mitigation pathways (IMPs) to exemplify a few different ways the sector may transform. Seven illustrative pathways are introduced in [[IPCC:Wg3:Chapter:Chapter-3#3.2.5|Section 3.2.5]] . In this box we focus on three of the IMPs: (i) focus on deep renewable energy penetration and electrification (IMP-Ren), (ii) low demand (IMP-LD), and (iii) pathways that align with both Sustainable Development Goals and climate policies (IMP-SP). In particular, the variants of these three scenarios limit warming to 1.5°C with no or limited overshoot (C1).

All of the three selected pathways reach global net zero CO 2 emissions across all sectors between 2060 and 2070, but not all reach net zero GHG emissions (Figure 3.4). Panel (a) in Box 10.4, Figure 1 below shows the CO 2 trajectories for the transport sector for the selected IMPs. Please note that the year 2020 is modelled in these scenarios, therefore, the scenarios do not reflect the effects of

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'''Box 10.4, Figure 1 | Three Illustrative mitigation pathways for the Transport sector.''' Panel '''(a)''' shows CO 2 emissions from the transport sector indexed to simulated non-COVID-2019 2020 levels. Panels '''(b)''' , '''(c)''' , and '''(d)''' show fuels mix to achieve 1.5°C warming through three illustrative mitigation pathways: IMP-SP, 1.5 IMP-Ren and IMP-LD, respectively. All data from IPCC AR6 scenario database.

the COVID-19 pandemic. For the low demand scenarios IMP-LD and renewables pathway IMP-Ren, CO 2 emissions from the transport sector decreases to 10% and 20% of modelled 2020 levels by 2050 respectively. In contrast, the IMP-SP has a steady decline of transport sector CO 2 emissions over the century. By 2050, this scenario has a 50% reduction in emissions compared to modelled 2020 levels. Panels (b), (c) and (d) show energy by different fuels for the three selected IMPs. The IMP-SP yields a drop in energy for transport of about 40% by the end of the century. CO 2 emissions reductions are obtained through a phase-out of fossil fuels with electricity and biofuels, complemented by a minor share of hydrogen, by the end of the century. In IMP-Ren, the fuel energy demand at the end of the century is on a par with the 2020 levels, but the fuel mix has shifted towards a larger share of electricity complimented by biofuels and a minor share of hydrogen. For the IMP-LD scenario, the overall fuel demand decreases by 45% compared to 2020 levels by the end of the century. Oil is largely phased out by mid century, with electricity and hydrogen becoming the major fuels in the second half of the century. Across the three IMPs, electricity plays a major role, in combination with biofuels, hydrogen, or both.

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