Editing IPCC:AR6/WGIII/Chapter-6 (section)

=== 6.5.4 Impacts on Electricity System Vulnerability ===

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While long-term trends are important for electricity system planning, short-term effects associated with loss of power can be disruptive and lead to significant economic losses along with cascading impacts on health and safety. Extreme weather and storms threaten the electricity system in different ways, affecting system resilience, reliability, and adequacy ( [[#Moreno-Mateos--2020|Moreno-Mateos et al. 2020]] ). The implications of climate change for electricity system vulnerability will depend on the degree to which climate change alters the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events. The complex compounding effects of simultaneous events (e.g., high winds and lightning occurring at the same time) are not well understood.

'''High wind speeds''' can shear lines through mechanical failure or cause lines to collide, causing transient events ( [[#Panteli--2015|Panteli and Mancarella 2015]] ; [[#Yalew--2020|Yalew et al. 2020]] ). Hurricane conditions can damage electricity system infrastructures, including utility-scale wind and solar PV plants. Electricity systems may experience high demand when lines are particularly at risk from mechanical failure from wind and storm-related effects. However, except for medium evidence of increases in heavy precipitation associated with tropical cyclones, there is limited evidence that extreme wind events will increase in frequency or intensity in the future ( [[#Kumar--2015|Kumar et al. 2015]] ; [[#Pryor--2020|Pryor et al. 2020]] ).

'''Wildfires''' pose a significant threat to electricity systems in dry conditions and arid regions ( [[#Dian--2019|Dian et al. 2019]] ). With climate change, wildfires will probably become more frequent ( [[#Flannigan--2013|Flannigan et al. 2013]] ) and more difficult to address, given that they frequently coincide with dry air and can be exacerbated by high winds ( [[#Mitchell--2013|Mitchell 2013]] ).

'''Lightning''' can cause wildfires or common-mode faults on electricity systems associated with vegetation falling on power substations or overhead lines but is more generally associated with flashovers and overloads ( [[#Balijepalli--2005|Balijepalli et al. 2005]] ). Climate change may change the probability of lightning-related events ( [[#Romps--2014|Romps et al. 2014]] ).

'''Snow and icing''' can impact overhead power lines by weighing them down beyond their mechanical limits, leading to collapse and cascading outages ( [[#Feng--2015|Feng et al. 2015]] ). Snow can also lead to flashovers on lines due to wet snow accumulation on insulators ( [[#Yaji--2014|Yaji et al. 2014]] ; [[#Croce--2018|Croce et al. 2018]] ) and snow and ice can impact wind turbines ( [[#Davis--2016|Davis et al. 2016]] ). Climate change will lower the risk of snow and ice conditions ( [[#McColl--2012|McColl et al. 2012]] ), but there is still an underlying risk of sporadic acute cold conditions such as those associated with the winter storms in Texas in 2021 (Box 6.6).

'''Flooding''' poses a threat to the transmission and distribution systems by inundating low-lying substations and underground cables. Coastal flooding also poses a threat to electricity system infrastructure. Rising sea levels from climate change and associated storm surge may also pose a significant risk for coastal electricity systems ( [[#Entriken--2012|Entriken and Lordan 2012]] ).

'''Temperature increases''' influence electricity load profiles and electricity generation, as well as potentially impact supporting information and communication infrastructure. Heat can pose direct impacts to electricity system equipment such as transformers. Referred to as ‘solar heat faults’, they occur under high temperatures and low wind speeds and can be exacerbated by the urban heat island effect ( [[#McColl--2012|McColl et al. 2012]] ). Increasing temperatures affect system adequacy by reducing electric transmission capacity, simultaneously increasing peak load due to increased air conditioning needs ( [[#Bartos--2016|Bartos et al. 2016]] ).

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