Editing IPCC:AR6/WGI/TS (section)

===== TS.4.3.2.4 Central and South America =====

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'''Additional regional changes in Central and South America, besides those features described in Section TS.4.3.1, include increases in mean and extreme precipitation in South-Eastern South America since the 1960s ( ''high confidence'' ) (Section TS.4.2.3). Decreasing trends in mean precipitation and increasing trends in agricultural and ecological drought are observed over North-Eastern South America ( ''medium confidence'' ). The intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation and pluvial floods is projected to increase over South-Eastern South America, Southern South America, Northern South America, South American Monsoon and North-Eastern South America ( ''medium confidence'' ) for a 2°C GWL and above. Increases of agricultural and ecological drought are projected in South America Monsoon and Southern South America, and fire weather is projected to increase over several regions (Northern South America, the South American Monsoon, North-Eastern South America and South-Western South America) ( ''high confidence'' ). Links to chapters 8.3, 8.4, 11.3, 11.4, 11.9, Table 11.13, Table 11.14, Table 11.15, 12.4.4.2, Atlas.7.1, Atlas.7.2'''
In addition to the main changes summarized above and in Section TS.4.3.1, further details are given below.

'''Heat and cold:''' Observed and projected increases in mean temperature and a shift toward heat extreme characteristics are broadly similar to the generic pattern described in Section TS.4.3.1. Links to chapters 11.3.2, 11.3.5, Table 11.13, 12.4.4.1, Atlas.7.1.2, Atlas.7.2.2, Atlas.7.2.4

'''Wet and dry:''' Mean precipitation is projected to change in a dipole pattern with increases in North-Western and South-Eastern South America and decreases in North-Eastern and South-Western South America ( ''high confidence'' ) and with further decreases in Northern South America and Southern Central America ( ''medium confidence'' ). In Northern South America and Southern Central America, aridity and agricultural and ecological droughts are increasing with ''medium confidence'' . Fire weather is projected to increase over Southern Central America and Southern South America with ''medium confidence'' . Links to chapters 8.3.1.3, 8.4.2.4.5, 11.4.2, 11.9, Table 11.14, Table 11.15, 12.4.4.2, Atlas.7.2.2, Atlas.7.2.4

'''Wind:''' Climate projections indicate an increase in mean wind speed and in wind power potential over the Amazonian region (Northern South America, South American Monsoon, North-Eastern South America) ( ''medium confidence'' ). Links to chapters 12.4.4.3

'''Snow and ice:''' Glacier volume loss and permafrost thawing will ''likely'' continue in the Andes Cordillera under all climate scenarios, causing important reductions in river flow and potentially high-magnitude glacial lake outburst floods. Links to chapters 9.5.1.1, 12.4.4.4

'''Coastal and oceanic:''' Around Central and South America, relative sea level has increased at a higher rate than GMSL in the South Atlantic and the subtropical North Atlantic, and at a rate lower than GMSL in the East Pacific over the last 3 decades. The present day 1-in-100-year ETWL is highest in Southern and South-Western South America subregions, where it can be as large as 5 to 6 m. Satellite observations for 1984–2015 show shoreline retreat rates along the sandy coasts of Southern Central America, South-Eastern South America and Southern South America, while shoreline progradation rates have been observed in North-Western South America and Northern South America. Over the period 1982–2016, the coastlines experienced at least one MHW per year, and more along the Pacific coast of North Central America and the Atlantic coast of South-Eastern South America. Links to chapters 12.4.4.5

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