Editing IPCC:AR6/WGI/TS (section)

==== TS.4.1.2 Regional Climate Information Distillation and Climate Services ====

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The construction of regional climate information involves people with a variety of backgrounds, from various disciplines, who have different sets of experiences, capabilities and values. The process of synthesizing climate information from different lines of evidence from a number of sources, taking into account the context of a user vulnerable to climate variability and change and the values of all relevant actors, is called distillation. Distillation is conditioned by the sources available, the actors involved, and the context, which all depend heavily on the regions considered, and is framed by the question being addressed. Distilling regional climate information from multiple lines of evidence and taking the user context into account increases fitness, usefulness, relevance and trust in that information for use in climate services (Box TS.11) and decision-making (''high confidence''). Links to chapters 1.2.3, 10.1.4, 10.5, Cross-Chapter Box 10.3, 12.6

The distillation process can vary substantially, as it needs to consider multiple lines of evidence on all physically plausible outcomes (especially when they are contrasting) relevant to a specific decision required in response to a changing climate. Confidence in the distilled regional climate information is enhanced when there is agreement across multiple lines of evidence, so the outcome can be limited if these are inconsistent or contradictory. For example, in the Mediterranean region the agreement between different lines of evidence, such as observations, projections by regional and global models, and understanding of the underlying mechanisms, provides ''high confidence'' in summer warming that exceeds the global average (see Box TS.12). In a less clear-cut case for Cape Town, South Africa, despite consistency among global model future projections, there is ''medium confidence'' in a projected future drier climate due to the lack of consistency in links between increasing greenhouse gases, changes in a key mode of variability (the Southern Annular Mode) and drought in Cape Town among different observation periods and in model simulations. Links to chapters 10.5.3, 10.6, 10.6.2, 10.6.4, Cross-Chapter Box 10.3, 12.4

Since AR5, physical climate storyline approaches have emerged as a complementary instrument to provide a different perspective, or additional climate information, to facilitate communication of the information or provide a more flexible consideration of risk. Storylines that condition climatic events and processes on a set of plausible but distinct large-scale climatic changes enable the exploration of uncertainties in regional climate projections. For example, they can explicitly address low-likelihood, high-impact outcomes, which would be less emphasized in a probabilistic approach, and can be embedded in a user’s risk landscape, taking account of socio-economic factors as well as physical climate changes. Storylines can also be used to communicate climate information by narrative elements describing and contextualizing the main climatological features and the relevant consequences in the user context and, as such, can be used as part of a climate information distillation process. Links to chapters 1.4.4., Box 10.2, 11.2, Box 11.2, Cross-Chapter Box 12.2

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