Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Chapter-12 (section)

==== 12.3.8.1 Hazards ====

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There were inconsistent trends and insufficient data coverage on extreme temperatures and precipitation ( ''low confidence'' ), but an increase in the frequency of meteorological droughts was observed with ''medium confidence'' ( [[#Dereczynski--2020|Dereczynski et al., 2020]] ; [[#Dunn--2020|Dunn et al., 2020]] ; WGI AR6 Tables 11.13, 11.14, 11.15, [[#Seneviratne--2021|Seneviratne et al., 2021]] ; WGI AR6 Table 12.3, [[#Ranasinghe--2021|Ranasinghe et al., 2021]] ). An increase in precipitation in Trelew, no change for Comodoro Rivadavia, both stations located in eastern Patagonia, and negative trends in austral summer rainfall in the southern Andes were observed ( [[#Vera--2015|Vera and Díaz, 2015]] ; [[#Saurral--2017|Saurral et al., 2017]] ). Chile’s wildfires in Patagonia (fire frequency and intensity) have grown at an alarming rate ( [[#Úbeda--2016|Úbeda and Sarricolea, 2016]] ). Decreasing rainfall patterns in Punta Arenas is closely associated with variability at interannual to inter-decadal time scales of the main forcing system of climate in Patagonia. Snow cover extension (SCE) and snow cover duration decreased by an average of approximately 13 ± 2% and 43 ± 20 d respectively from 2000 to 2016, due to warming rather than drying ( [[#Rasmussen--2007|Rasmussen et al., 2007]] ). In particular, analysis of spatial patterns of SCE indicates a slightly greater reduction on the eastern side (approximately 14 ± 2%) of the Andes Cordillera compared to the western side (approximately 12 ± 3%). According to the longest time series of glacier mass balance data in the Southern Hemisphere, the Echaurren Norte glacier lost 65% of its original area in the period 1955–2015 and disaggregated into two ice bodies in the late 1990s ( [[#Malmros--2018|Malmros et al., 2018]] ; [[#Pérez--2018|Pérez et al., 2018]] ).

Mean temperatures in the SSA sub-region are projected to continue to rise up to +2.5°C by 2080 with respect to the present climate ( [[#Kreps--2012|Kreps et al., 2012]] ). A rise in temperature means that an isotherm of 0°C will move up mountains, leaving less surface for accumulation of snow ( [[#Barros--2015|Barros et al., 2015]] ).

An increase in the intensity and frequency of hot extremes and a decrease in the intensity and frequency of cold extremes are projected to be ''likely'' (WGI AR6 Table 11.13, [[#Seneviratne--2021|Seneviratne et al., 2021]] ); CMIP6 models project an increase in the intensity and frequency of heavy precipitation ( ''medium confidence'' ) ''.''

It is expected that an increase in the intensity of heavy precipitation, droughts and fire weather will intensify through the 21st century in SSA, but mean wind will decrease ( ''medium confidence'' ) ( [[#Kitoh--2011|Kitoh et al., 2011]] ; WGI AR6 Tables 11.14 and Table 11.15, [[#Seneviratne--2021|Seneviratne et al., 2021]] ). The probability of extended droughts, such as the recently experienced mega-drought (2010–2015), increases to up to 5 events/100 yr ( [[#Bozkurt--2017|Bozkurt et al., 2017]] ). Snow, glaciers, permafrost and ice sheets will decrease with ''high confidence'' (WGI AR6 Table 12.6, [[#Ranasinghe--2021|Ranasinghe et al., 2021]] ). The observed area and the elevation changes indicate that the Echaurren Norte glacier may disappear in the coming years if negative mass balance rates prevail ( ''medium confidence'' ) ( [[#Farías-Barahona--2019|Farías-Barahona et al., 2019]] ).

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