Editing IPCC:AR6/WGIII/Chapter-4 (section)

==== 4.3.1.1 What are Development Pathways? ====

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The term development pathway is defined in various ways in the literature, and these definitions invariably refer to the evolution over time of a society’s defining features. A society’s development pathway can be described, analysed, and explained from a variety of perspectives, capturing a range of possible features, trends, processes, and mechanisms. It can be examined in terms of specific quantitative indicators, such as population, urbanisation level, life expectancy, literacy rate, GDP, carbon dioxide emission rate, average surface temperature, etc. Alternately, it can be described with reference to trends and shifts in broad socio-political or cultural features, such as democratisation, liberalisation, colonisation, globalisation, consumerism, etc. Or, it can be described in a way that highlights and details a particular domain of interest; for example, as an ‘economic pathway’, ‘technological pathway’, ‘demographic pathway’, or others. Any such focused description of a pathway is more limited, by definition, than the general and encompassing notion of a development pathway.

Development pathways represent societal evolution over time, and can be assessed retrospectively and interpreted in a historical light, or explored prospectively by anticipating and assessing alternative future pathways. Development pathways, and prospective development pathways in particular, can reflect societal objectives, as in ‘low-emission development pathways’, ‘climate-resilient development pathways’, ‘sustainable development pathways’, ‘inclusive development pathway’, and as such can embed normative assumptions or preferences, or can reflect potential dystopian futures to be avoided. A national development plan ( [[#4.3.2|Section 4.3.2]] ) is a representation of a possible development pathway for a given society reflecting its objectives, as refracted through its development planning process.

One approach for exploring shifts in future development pathways is through scenarios. Some examples of scenario exercises in the literature are provided in Table 4.11.

Different narratives of development pathways can have distinct and even competing focuses such as economic growth, shifts in industrial structure, technological determinism, and can embody alternative framings of development itself (from growth to well-being, see Chapter 5), and of sustainable development in particular (Sections 1.6 and 17.1). Scenario exercises are structured undertakings to explore alternative future development pathways, often drawing on stakeholder input and accepting the deep and irreducible uncertainty inherent in societal development into the future ( [[#Schweizer--2012|Schweizer and Kriegler 2012]] ; [[#Kahane--2012|Kahane 2012]] ; [[#Raskin--2020|Raskin and Swart 2020]] ). The results of scenario explorations, including modelling exercises, thus help clarify the characteristics of a particular future pathway, in light of a particular set of assumptions and choice of indicators for assessment. Processes of developing scenarios can inform choices by decision makers of various kinds.

Scenarios are useful to clarify societal objectives, understand constraints, and explore future shifts. Scenario exercises are effective when they enable multi-dimensional assessment, and accommodate divergent normative viewpoints ( [[#Kowarsch--2017|Kowarsch et al. 2017]] ). Such processes might take into account participants’ explicit and implicit priorities, values, disciplinary backgrounds, and world views. The process of defining and describing a society’s development pathway contributes to the ongoing process of understanding, explaining and defining the historical and contemporary meaning and significance of a society. The imagination of facilitated stakeholder process combined with the rigour of modelling helps improve understanding of constraints, trade-offs, and choices. ‘Scenario analysis offers a structured approach for illuminating the vast range of possibilities. A scenario is a story, told in words and numbers, describing the way events might unfold. If constructed with rigor and imagination, scenarios help us to explore where we might be headed, but more, offering guidance on how to act now to direct the flow of events toward a desirable future’ ( [[#Raskin--2002|Raskin et al. 2002]] ). Scenario processes are valuable for the quantitative and qualitative insights they can provide, and also for the role they can play in providing a forum and process by which diverse institutions and even antagonistic stakeholders can come together, build trust, improve understanding, and ultimately converge in their objectives ( [[#Kane--2018|Kane and Boulle 2018]] ; [[#Dubash--2021|Dubash 2021]] ).

'''Table 4.11 | Prospective development pathways at global, national a''' '''nd local scale.'''

{| class="wikitable"
|-
! Scale

! Process and publication

! Description of development pathways

|-
| Global

| IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios (Nakicenovic et al. 2000)

| Four different narrative storylines describing relationships between driving forces and the evolution of emission scenarios over the 21st century.

|-
| Global

| Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs)

( [[#Riahi--2017|Riahi et al. 2017]] ; [[#O’Neill--2017|O’Neill et al. 2017]] )

| Five narratives describing alternative socio-economic developments, including sustainable development, regional rivalry, inequality, fossil-fuelled development, and middle-of-the-road development, using alternative long-term projections of demographics, human development, economy and lifestyle, policies and institutions, technology, and environment and natural resources.

|-
| Global

| Income inequality projections for SSPs ( [[#Rao--2019|Rao et al. 2019]] )

| Alternative development pathways that explore several drivers of rising or falling inequality.

|-
| Global

| Futures of Work

( [[#World%20Economic%20Forum--2018|World Economic Forum 2018]] )

| Eight possible visions of the future of work in the year 2030, based on different combinations of three core variables: the rate of technological change and its impact on business models, the evolution of learning among the current and future workforce, and the magnitude of labour mobility across geographies – all of which are likely to strongly influence the nature of work in the future.

|-
| National

| Mont Fleur Scenarios

( [[#Galer--2004|Galer 2004]] )

| Four socio-political scenarios intended to explore possible futures of a newly post-apartheid South Africa, which included three dark prophecies and one bright vision which reportedly influenced the new leadership.

|-
| National

| Mitigation Action Plans and Scenarios (MAPS) ( [[#Winkler--2017|Winkler et al. 2017]] ; [[#Raubenheimer--2015|Raubenheimer et al. 2015]] )

| Mitigation and development-focused scenarios for Brazil, Chile, Peru, and Colombia, entailing linked sectoral and economy modelling including socio-economic implications, combined with intensive stakeholder engagement.

|-
| National

| Deep Decarbonisation Pathways (Bataille et al. 2016a; [[#Waisman--2019|Waisman et al. 2019]] )

| Mitigation-focused scenarios for sixteen countries from each country’s perspective, carried out by local institutes using national models. The common method is a tool for decision-makers in each context to debate differing concrete visions for deep decarbonisation, seek consensus on near-term policy packages, with aim to contribute to long-term global decarbonisation.

|-
| Local

| New Lenses on Future Cities

( [[#Shell%20Global--2014|Shell Global 2014]] )

| Six city archetypes used to create scenarios to help understand how cities could evolve through more sustainable urbanisation processes and become more efficient, while coping with major development challenges in the past.

|}

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