Editing IPCC:AR6/WGI/TS (section)

===== TS.4.3.2.5 Europe =====

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'''Additional regional changes in Europe, besides those features described in Section TS.4.3.1, include observed increases in pluvial flooding in Northern Europe and hydrological and agricultural/ecological droughts in the Mediterranean ( ''high confidence'' ), which have been attributed to human influence with ''high'' and ''medium confidence'' , respectively. Increased mean precipitation amounts at high latitudes in boreal winter and reduced summer precipitation in southern Europe are projected starting from a 2°C GWL ( ''high confidence'' ). Aridity, agricultural and hydrological droughts and fire weather conditions will increase in the Mediterranean region starting from 2°C GWL ( ''high confidence'' ). Pluvial flooding will increase everywhere with ''high confidence'' except for ''medium confidence'' in the Mediterranean; in Western and Central Europe this also applies to river flooding starting from a 2°C GWL ( ''high confidence'' ). Most periglacial processes in Northern Europe are projected to disappear by the end of the 21st century, even for a low warming scenario ( ''medium confidence'' ). Links to chapters 8.3, 11.3, 11.9, 12.4.5, 12.5.2, Atlas.8.2, Atlas.8.4'''
In addition to the main changes summarized above and in Section TS.4.3.1, further details are given below.

'''Heat and cold:''' Observed and projected increases in mean temperature and a shift toward heat extreme characteristics are broadly similar to the generic pattern described in Section TS.4.3.1. Links to chapters 11.3, 11.9, 12.4.5.1, 12.5.2, Atlas.8.2, Atlas.8.4

'''Wet and dry:''' There is ''medium confidence'' that annual mean precipitation has increased in Northern Europe, West and Central Europe, and Eastern Europe since the early 20th century and ''high confidence'' for increases in extreme precipitation. In the European Mediterranean, the magnitude and sign of observed land precipitation trends depend on time period and exact study region ( ''medium confidence'' ). There is ''medium confidence'' that river floods will decrease in Northern, Eastern and southern Europe for high warming levels. Links to chapters 8.3.1.3, 11.3, 11.9, 12.4.5.2, Atlas.8.2, Atlas.8.4

'''Wind:''' Mean wind speed over land has decreased ( ''medium confidence'' ), but the role of human-induced climate change has not been established. There is ''high confidence'' that mean wind speeds will decrease in Mediterranean areas and ''medium confidence'' for such decreases in Northern Europe for GWLs exceeding 2°C. The frequency of Medicanes (tropical-like cyclones in the Mediterranean) is projected to decrease ( ''medium confidence'' ). Links to chapters 11.9, 12.4.5.3

'''Snow and ice:''' In the Alps, snow cover will decrease below elevations of 1500–2000 m throughout the 21st century ( ''high confidence'' ). A reduction of glacier ice volume is projected in the European Alps and Scandinavia with ''high confidence'' and with ''medium confidence'' for the timing and mass change rates. Links to chapters 9.5.2, 12.4.5.4

'''Coastal and oceanic:''' Over the last three decades, relative sea level has increased at a lower rate than GMSL in the sub-polar North Atlantic coasts of Europe. The present-day 1-in-100-year ETWL is between 0.5–1.5 m in the Mediterranean basin and 2.5–5.0 m in the western Atlantic European coasts, around the United Kingdom and along the North Sea coast, and lower at 1.5–2.5 m along the Baltic Sea coast. Satellite-derived shoreline change estimates over 1984–2015 indicate shoreline retreat rates of around 0.5 m yr <sup>–1</sup> along the sandy coasts of Central Europe and the Mediterranean and more or less stable shorelines in Northern Europe. Over the period 1982–2016, the coastlines of Europe experienced on average more than 2.0 MHW per year, with the eastern Mediterranean and Scandinavia experiencing 2.5–3 MHWs per year. Links to chapters 12.4.5.5

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