Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Chapter-15 (section)

== 15.7 Climate Resilient Development Pathways and Future Solutions in Small Islands ==

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Synergies exist between climate resilient development pathways and implementation of SDGs in small islands because development decisions and outcomes are strengthened by consideration of climate and disaster risk ( [[#Robinson--2017b|Robinson, 2017b]] ; [[#Hay--2019a|Hay et al., 2019a]] ). However, monitoring progress of SDGs is challenging for small islands, in part due to large numbers of indicators and inadequate data. Literature on SDG implementation is generally lacking for small islands as is the integration of climate risk into infrastructure decisions.

Decisions that are optimal for adaptation may not be acceptable in the wider development context within which they operate. In the Pacific region, where 67% of infrastructure is located within 500 m of coastline, commercial, public and industrial infrastructures are particularly vulnerable due to the location of urban centres ( [[#Kumar--2015|Kumar and Taylor, 2015]] ). Yet the Parliamentary Complex in Samoa was redeveloped at the original site owing to cultural and historical factors despite strong evidence of the need to relocate ( [[#Hay--2019b|Hay et al., 2019b]] ).

Energy transitions in the Pacific islands demonstrate development synergies such as reduced dependency on volatile fossil fuel markets, increased resilience to weather-related disasters and less need for investment in large-scale centralised energy systems ( [[#Dornan--2014|Dornan, 2014]] ; [[#Cole--2017|Cole and Banks, 2017]] ; [[#Weir--2018|Weir, 2018]] ; [[#Weir--2020|Weir and Kumar, 2020]] ). However, high and rapid energy transition ambitions can lead to trade-offs for rural electrification (Box 18.4; [[#Dornan--2014|Dornan, 2014]] ; [[#Cole--2017|Cole and Banks, 2017]] ; [[#Hills--2018|Hills et al., 2018]] ).

Tourism system transitions can enable the sector to contribute to climate resilient development pathways through managing climate risks and improving ecological, economic and social outcomes for small islands ( ''medium evidence, high agreement'' ) ( [[#Loehr--2019|Loehr, 2019]] ; [[#Mahadew--2019|Mahadew and Appadoo, 2019]] ; [[#Loehr--2020|Loehr et al., 2020]] ; [[#Sheller--2020|Sheller, 2020]] ).

There is a clear role for local governments to work closely with the informal private sector to achieve a ‘trifecta’ of climate change adaptation, economic development and DRR, especially for women ( [[#McNamara--2020|McNamara et al., 2020]] ). Yet, many cities and local governments in the Pacific region are severely resource constrained ( [[#Kelman--2014|Kelman, 2014]] ; [[#Kiddle--2017|Kiddle et al., 2017]] ; [[#Keen--2019|Keen and Connell, 2019]] ; [[#Nunn--2019|Nunn and McNamara, 2019]] ).

Broader innovation in climate resilient development policy-making has taken place in the Pacific ( [[#Hay--2019a|Hay et al., 2019a]] ) and Caribbean ( [[#Mycoo--2018a|Mycoo, 2018a]] ). The Pacific region is bringing together DRM, low carbon growth and climate change adaptation with broader development efforts for the first time ( [[#SPC--2016|SPC, 2016]] ). Improvements in cross-sectoral and cross-agency coordination are creating opportunities for improved disaster preparedness and resilience measures in small islands ( [[#Webb--2015|Webb et al., 2015]] ; [[#Nalau--2016|Nalau et al., 2016]] ). Further integration between development priorities and risk management in national budgetary and development processes is necessary, as is continued investment in coordination mechanisms ( [[#Hay--2019a|Hay et al., 2019a]] ).

Early research on the response to COVID-19 indicates that existing disaster response mechanisms in the Caribbean islands have assisted in rapid responses to COVID-19 ( [[#Hambleton--2020|Hambleton et al., 2020]] ). Many small islands are highly dependent on tourism for their economies and are facing worsening crises associated with climate-related disasters and more recently COVID-19 disruptions of travel ( [[#Sheller--2020|Sheller, 2020]] ). The adaptive capacity and innovations demonstrated by SIDS during COVID-19, moving beyond dependence on ‘extractive’ international tourism, demonstrate the potential benefits of diversified and sustainable economies (and ecologies) for the enhanced resilience of both human and ecological communities ( [[#Sheller--2020|Sheller, 2020]] ).

In the context of small islands, climate justice research is expanding beyond initial debates about nation-states responsibilities for the causes and responses to climate change, to demonstrate complex and dynamic intergenerational and multiscalar dilemmas of climate justice ( [[#Ferdinand--2018|Ferdinand, 2018]] ; [[#Sheller--2018|Sheller, 2018]] ; [[#Baptiste--2019|Baptiste and Devonish, 2019]] ; [[#Look--2019|Look et al., 2019]] ; [[#Douglass--2020|Douglass and Cooper, 2020]] ; [[#Kotsinas--2020|Kotsinas, 2020]] ; [[#Sheller--2020|Sheller, 2020]] ). In Caribbean SIDS, research highlights how intersecting external and internal socioeconomic and political processes are leading marginalised populations to become increasingly socially and economically disadvantaged and politically marginalised, which in turn heightens climate vulnerability and impedes sustainable development efforts ( [[#Baptiste--2019|Baptiste and Devonish, 2019]] ) ( [[#Moulton--2019|Moulton and Machado, 2019]] ; [[#Gahman--2020|Gahman and Thongs, 2020]] ; [[#Rhiney--2020|Rhiney, 2020]] ; [[#Duvat--2021b|Duvat et al., 2021b]] ). Inequity extends to how development and disaster aid was coordinated and distributed within various nations after hurricanes Irma, Maria and Harvey in 2017.

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