Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Chapter-16 (section)

=== 16.4.2 Insights from Regions and Sectors about Limits to Adaptation ===

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Here we provide example case studies to highlight constraints that may lead to soft limits, potential incremental and transformational adaptation options that may overcome soft limits, evidence of hard limits, and residual risks.

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==== 16.4.2.1 Small Island Developing States ====

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An expanding volume of empirical research highlights existing adaptation constraints that may lead to soft limits in Small Island Developing States (SIDS). Investigation of national communications among 19 SIDS found that financial constraints, institutional challenges and poor resource endowments were the most frequently reported as inhibiting adaptation for a range of climate impacts ( [[#Robinson--2018b|Robinson, 2018b]] ). Governance, financial and information constraints such as unclear property rights and lack of donor flexibility have led to hasty implementation of adaptation projects in Kiribati, whereas in Vanuatu and the Solomon Islands, limited awareness of rural adaptation needs and weak linkages between central governance and local communities have resulted in an urban bias in resource allocation ( [[#Kuruppu--2015|Kuruppu and Willie, 2015]] ). Limited availability and use of information and technology also present constraints to adaptation; many SIDS suffer from lack of data and established routines to identify losses and damages, and the combination of poor monitoring of slow-onset changes and influence of non-climatic determinants of observed impacts challenges attribution ( [[#Thomas--2018|Thomas and Benjamin, 2018]] ). The fact that climate information is often available only in the English language represents another common constraint for island communities ( [[#Betzold--2015|Betzold, 2015]] ). Although Indigenous and local knowledge systems can provide important experience-based input to adaptation policies ( [[#Miyan--2017|Miyan et al., 2017]] ), socio-cultural values and traditions such as attachment to place, religious beliefs and traditions can also constrain adaptation in island communities, particularly for more transformational forms of adaptation ( [[#Ha’apio--2018|Ha’apio et al., 2018]] ; [[#Oakes--2019|Oakes, 2019]] ).

Soft limits to adaptation for coastal flooding and erosion are already being experienced in Samoa owing largely to financial, physical and technological constraints ( [[#Crichton--2018|Crichton and Esteban, 2018]] ). While sea walls have been erected to minimise coastal erosion, these defences need regular upgrading and replacement as high swells, tropical cyclones and constant wave action erode their effectiveness. The high costs of installing, upgrading and enlarging such infrastructure has led to sea walls only being used in specific locations, leaving communities that are beyond the extent of these measures exposed to inundation and erosion. Native tree replanting has also been implemented, but coastal flooding and erosion persist as large swells lead to high failure rates of replanting efforts. Across SIDS, adaptation to coastal flooding and erosion in particular is increasingly facing soft limits due to high costs, unavailability of technological options and limited physical space or environmental suitability for hard engineering or ecosystem-based approaches ( [[#Mackey--2018|Mackey and Ware, 2018]] ; [[#Nalau--2018|Nalau et al., 2018]] ).

Retreat and relocation constitute transformative adaptation options, although evidence of permanent community-scale relocation in response to climate change remains limited at present ( [[#Kelman--2015|Kelman, 2015]] ; [[#McNamara--2015|McNamara and Des Combes, 2015]] ). Material and emotional cost of emigration as well as loss of homeland, nationhood, and other intangible assets and values imply that relocation is generally considered a last resort ( [[#Jamero--2017|Jamero et al., 2017]] ) and may mean abandoning objectives of remaining in existing locations, hence exceeding adaptation limits.

Hard limits in SIDS are mostly due to adaptation being unable to prevent intolerable risks from escalating climate hazards such as SLR and related risks of flooding and surges, severe tropical cyclones, and contamination of groundwater. Emerging evidence suggests that shortage of water and land degradation have already contributed to migration of multiple island communities in the Pacific ( [[#Handmer--2019|Handmer and Nalau, 2019]] ).

Residual risks for SIDS include loss of marine and terrestrial biodiversity and ecosystem services, increased food and water insecurity, destruction of settlements and infrastructure, loss of cultural resources and heritage, collapse of economies and livelihoods, and reduced habitability of islands ( [[IPCC:Wg2:Chapter:Chapter-3#3.5.1|Section 3.5.1]] , [[IPCC:Wg2:Chapter:Chapter-15#15.3|Section 15.3]] ).

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==== 16.4.2.2 Agriculture in Asia ====

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Lack of financial resources is found to be a significant constraint that contributes to soft limits to adaptation in agriculture across Asia. Although smallholder farmers are currently adapting to climate impacts, lack of finance and access to credit prevents upscaling of adaptive responses and has led to losses ( [[#Bauer--2013|Bauer, 2013]] ; [[#Patnaik--2015|Patnaik and Narayanan, 2015]] ; [[#Bhatta--2016|Bhatta and Aggarwal, 2016]] ; [[#Loria--2016|Loria, 2016]] ). Other constraints further contribute to soft limits, including governance and associated institutional factors such as ineffective agricultural policies and organisational capacities ( [[#Tun%20Oo--2017|Tun Oo et al., 2017]] ), information and technology challenges such as limited availability and access to technologies on the ground ( [[#Singh--2018|Singh et al., 2018]] ), socio-cultural factors such as the social acceptability of adaptation measures that are affected by gender ( [[#Huyer--2016|Huyer, 2016]] ; [[#Ravera--2016|Ravera et al., 2016]] ), and limited human capacity ( [[#Masud--2017|Masud et al., 2017]] ). A wide range of pests and pathogens are predicted to become problematic to regional food crop production as average global temperatures rise ( [[#Deutsch--2018|Deutsch et al., 2018]] ), increasing crop loss across Asia for which farmers are already experiencing a variety of adaptation constraints, including financial, economic and technological challenges ( [[#Sada--2014|Sada et al., 2014]] ; [[#Tun%20Oo--2017|Tun Oo et al., 2017]] ; [[#Fahad--2018|Fahad and Wang, 2018]] ). Extreme heatwaves are projected in the densely populated agricultural regions of South Asia, leading to increased risk of heat stress for farmers and resultant constraints on their ability to implement adaptive actions ( [[#Im--2017|Im et al., 2017]] ). However, socioeconomic constraints appear to have a higher influence on soft limits to adaptation in agriculture than biophysical constraints ( [[#Thomas--2021|Thomas et al., 2021]] ). For example, an examination of farmers’ adaptation to climate change in Turkey found that constraints related to access to climate information and access to credit will likely limit the yield benefits of incremental adaptation ( [[#Karapinar--2020|Karapinar and Özertan, 2020]] ). In Nepal, conservation policies restrict traditional grazing inside national parks, which promotes intensive agriculture and limits other cropping systems that have been implemented as climate change adaptation ( [[#Aryal--2014|Aryal et al., 2014]] ).

In Bangladesh, small and landless farm households are already approaching soft limits in adapting to riverbank erosion ( [[#Alam--2018|Alam et al., 2018]] ). While wealthier farming households can implement a range of adaptation responses, including changing planting times and cultivating different crops, poorer households have limited access to financial institutions and credit to implement such measures. Their adaptation responses of shifting to homestead gardening and animal rearing are insufficient to maintain their livelihoods, and these households are more likely to engage in off-farm work or migrate.

Palao et al.. (2019) identify the possible need for transformational adaptation in Asian-Pacific agricultural practices due to changes in biophysical parameters as global average temperatures rise. In this context, transformational adaptation would consist of changing farming locations to different provinces or different elevations for the production of specific crops or introducing new farming systems. Nearly 50% of maize in the region along with 18% of potato and 8% of rice crops would need to either be shifted in location or use new cropping systems, with the most significant transformation being needed in China, India, Myanmar and the Philippines. For maize suitability by 2030, seven provinces in the east and northeast of China are projected to experience over 50% reduction in suitability, and two northern states in India may experience 70% reduction in suitability. Cassava and sweet potato may play a critical role in food resilience in these areas, as these crops are more resilient to climate change ( [[#Prain--2019|Prain and Naziri, 2019]] ).

In terms of hard limits, the rate and extent of climate change is critical as agriculture is climate-dependent and sensitive to changes in climate parameters. [[#Poudel--2017|Poudel and Duex (2017)]] document that over 70% of the springs used as water sources in Nepalese mountain agricultural communities had a decreased flow, and approximately 12% had dried up over the past decade. While there are some adaptation measures to address reduced water availability—such as the introduction of water-saving irrigation technology among Beijing farmers to alleviate water scarcity in metropolitan suburbs ( [[#Zhang--2019|Zhang et al., 2019]] )—these actions still depend on some level of water availability. If climate hazards intensify to the point where water supply cannot meet agricultural demands, hard limits to adaptation will occur.

Residual risks associated with agriculture in Asia include declines in fisheries, aquaculture and crop production, particularly in South and Southeast Asia ( [[IPCC:Wg2:Chapter:Chapter-10#10.3|Section 10.3.5]] ), increased food insecurity ( [[IPCC:Wg2:Chapter:Chapter-10#10.4.5|Section 10.4.5]] ), reductions of farmers’ incomes by up to 25% ( [[IPCC:Wg2:Chapter:Chapter-10#10.4.5|Section 10.4.5]] ), loss of production areas ( [[IPCC:Wg2:Chapter:Chapter-10#10.4.5|Section 10.4.5]] ) and reduced physical work capacity for farmers—between 5% and 15% decline in south-southwest Asia and China under RCP8.5 ( [[IPCC:Wg2:Chapter:Chapter-5#5.12.4|Section 5.12.4]] ).

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==== 16.4.2.3 Livelihoods in Africa ====

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For livelihoods dependent on small-scale rain-fed agriculture in Africa, climate hazards include floods and droughts. However, governance, financial and information/awareness/technology challenges are identified as the most significant constraints leading to soft limits, followed by social and human capacity constraints ( [[#Thomas--2021|Thomas et al., 2021]] ). Finance and land tenure constraints restrict Ghanaian farmers when considering adaptation responses due to climate variability ( [[#Guodaar--2017|Guodaar et al., 2017]] ). Similarly, in East Africa, farmers with small pieces of land have limited economic profitability, making it difficult to invest in drought and/or flood management measures ( [[#Gbegbelegbe--2018|Gbegbelegbe et al., 2018]] ).

Increasing droughts and floods require costlier adaptation responses to reduce risks, such as using drought-tolerant species ( [[#Berhanu--2015|Berhanu and Beyene, 2015]] ) and coping strategies for flood-prone households ( [[#Schaer--2015|Schaer, 2015]] ; [[#Musyoki--2016|Musyoki et al., 2016]] ), resulting in soft limits for poorer households who cannot afford these responses. In Namibia, weak governance and poor integration of information, such as disregarding knowledge of urban and rural residents in flood management strategies, has resulted in soft limits to adaptation, leading to temporary or permanent relocation of communities ( [[#Hooli--2016|Hooli, 2016]] ). Shortage of land—namely high population pressure and small per capita land holding—leads to continuous cultivation and results in poor soil fertility. This low productivity is further aggravated by erratic rainfall causing soft limits as farmers cannot produce enough and must depend on food aid ( [[#Asfaw--2019|Asfaw et al., 2019]] ).

Relocation due to flooding is discussed as a transformation adaptation action taken in Botswana where the government decided to permanently relocate hundreds of residents to a nearby dryland area ( [[#Shinn--2014|Shinn et al., 2014]] ). Some residents permanently relocated, whereas others only temporarily relocated against the government’s instructions. Such relocation processes must attend to micro-politics and risks of existing systemic issues of inequality and vulnerability.

In terms of hard limits, land scarcity poses a hard limit when implementing organic cotton production, an adaptation response supporting sustainable livelihoods ( [[#Kloos--2014|Kloos and Renaud, 2014]] ).

Residual risks associated with livelihoods in Africa include poorer households becoming trapped in cycles of poverty ( [[IPCC:Wg2:Chapter:Chapter-9#9.9.3|Section 9.9.3]] ), increased rates of rural–urban migration ( [[IPCC:Wg2:Chapter:Chapter-9#9.8.4|Section 9.8.4]] ), decline of traditional livelihoods such as in agriculture (Sections 9.9.3, 9.11.3.1) and fisheries ( [[IPCC:Wg2:Chapter:Chapter-9#9.11.1.2|Section 9.11.1.2]] ), and loss of traditional practices and cultural heritage ( [[IPCC:Wg2:Chapter:Chapter-9#9.9.2|Section 9.9.2]] ).

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