Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Chapter-8 (section)

==== 8.4.5.7 Compounding Future Risks on Equity and Sustainability ====

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The compounding future effects on equity and sustainability emerge when multiple stressors linked to environmental and/or climate change, together with underlying structural poverty, exclusion, marginalisation, and conflicts creating risks that need to be addressed simultaneously. Compounding risks of climate change received attention in AR5 ( [[#Oppenheimer--2014|Oppenheimer et al., 2014]] ). This included risks associated with compound hazards ( [[#O’Neill--2017b|O’Neill et al., 2017b]] ) and their implications for future risk when repeated impacts erode human and ecosystem capacity, including through transboundary effects. In SRCCL ( [[#IPCC--2019a|IPCC, 2019a]] ), land degradation and climate change compounded to highly expose the livelihoods of the poor to climate hazards and caused food insecurity ( ''high confidence'' ), migration, conflict and loss of cultural heritage ( ''low confidence'' ) ( [[#Olsson--2019|Olsson et al., 2019]] ).

The evidence of compounded risks emerges from specific climate and environmental hazards, as in relation to heatwaves, droughts, altered precipitation regimes and increasing aridity, cyclones, floods, hurricanes and wildfires (Table 8.7). Other evidence shows that the structural poverty and socioeconomic inequalities ( [[#Lusseau--2019|Lusseau and Mancini, 2019]] ), disability ( [[#Sun--2017|Sun et al., 2017]] ), corruption ( [[#Markkanen--2019|Markkanen, 2019]] ) and isolation ( [[#Reyer--2017|Reyer et al., 2017]] ) (Table 8.7) compound to amplify climate risks among rural and urban poor, smallholder farms, coastal settlements, with health impacts on children’s development ( [[#Perera--2017|Perera, 2017]] ) and urban elderly ( [[#Sun--2017|Sun et al., 2017]] ). In Tanzania, a greater exposure of households to climate change impacts and risks is associated with increasing land value and variable tenure, compounded by declining farm yields, accelerating the negative effects among the population ( [[#Röschel--2018|Röschel et al., 2018]] ). In India, extreme droughts and heatwaves compound extreme poverty and high dependence on agriculture for income and food production will affect crop productivity, income and food prices among smallholder farms ( [[#Singh--2017|Singh and Leua, 2017]] ). In Mozambique, soil degradation and fertility, compounded by incidence of droughts, increase the vulnerability of already poor smallholders who lack access to technological advances for crop yield management and drought-resistant crops ( [[#Kidane--2019|Kidane et al., 2019]] ).

'''Table 8.7 |''' Effects of compounded risks on the poor. Climate hazards: flooding, hurricanes, drought and heatwaves.

{| class="wikitable"
|-
! Dimensions of compounded risk effects on the poor

! Equity

! Sustainability

|-
| Poverty (9)**

| ✓

| ✓

|-
| Environmental (ecological change, soil degradation, fertility and aridity) and socioeconomic changes (8)**

| ✓

| ✓

|-
| Inequalities (4)*

| ✓

|
|-
| Governance (3)*

| ✓

| ✓

|-
| Geographical (isolation) (1)

| ✓

| ✓

|-
| Population growth (3)*

|
| ✓

|-
| Diseases (3)*

| ✓

| ✓

|-
| Uncertainty (1)*

|
|-
| Finance (1)*

|
|-
| Informality urban (2)*

| ✓

| ✓

|-
| Disability (1)*

| ✓

|
|-
| Climate-sensitive livelihoods (1)*

|
| ✓

|-
| Infrastructure (1)*

|
| ✓

|}

Notes:

Confidence level: *** ''high'' (≥10 papers); ** ''medium'' (5–9 papers); * ''low'' (≤4 papers).

In the context of urbanisation, in fast growing cities in Asia, Africa and Latin America that are highly socially and economically unequal, the climate change impacts from events such as flooding and droughts, are amplified as water crises, mostly among the poor and marginalised population, challenging governance for risk reduction ( [[#Gore--2015|Gore, 2015]] ; [[#Dodman--2017|Dodman et al., 2017]] ; [[#Jiang--2017|Jiang and O’Neill, 2017]] ; [[#Pelling--2018|Pelling et al., 2018]] ; [[#Solecki--2018|Solecki et al., 2018]] ). In the Global South, over 880 million people are living in precarious and informal conditions without access to water and sanitation, mostly in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia (see Chapter 6; [[#Rosenzweig--2018|Rosenzweig et al., 2018]] ; [[#Satterthwaite--2018|Satterthwaite et al., 2018]] ; [[#Tusting--2019|Tusting et al., 2019]] ). In rapidly urbanising sub-Saharan African countries, around 53 (50–57) million urban inhabitants (50% of urban population ) and 595 (585–607) million rural inhabitants (82% of the rural population) were still living in unimproved housing in 2015 ( [[#Tusting--2019|Tusting et al., 2019]] ).

L&amp;D from climate extremes, such as fatalities or economic losses due to droughts or floods (see also Figure 8.6) also matter for future vulnerability and risk, since the poorest segments of society take longer to recover after shocks ( [[#Gupta--2006|Gupta and Sharma, 2006]] ; [[#van%20der%20Geest--2018|van der Geest, 2018]] ). In some cases, poor households might never be able to fully recover post-disaster, especially in the context of increasing global temperature increase ( [[#van%20der%20Geest--2018|van der Geest, 2018]] ). Another example of compounding effects of climate change to equity and sustainability is migration, which is underpinned by the underlying socioeconomic and political context of vulnerability (see [[#8.2|Section 8.2]] ).

In Latin America, compounding effects of climate change impacts (disasters) and armed conflict has contributed to forced migration to the point that in 2018 alone, 1.7 million people migrated due to extreme events, four times as many as the number of people leaving their homeland due to armed conflict ( [[#Serraglio--2019|Serraglio and Schraven, 2019]] ). In South America, migration within and between countries can stem from climate extremes, primarily felt by the poorest and marginalised (by gender, age, ethnicity) populations that might not be able to adapt to the fast pace and scale of changes at the local level ( [[#Maru--2014|Maru et al., 2014]] ; [[#Pinho--2015|Pinho et al., 2015]] ; [[#Serraglio--2019|Serraglio and Schraven, 2019]] ). In mountain regions, intersections of people’s marginalisation, difficulty in access and environmental sensitivity in the context of incidence of climate extremes have combined to reduce the ability of mountain agro-pastoralists to cope with climate extremes ( [[#Mishra--2019|Mishra et al., 2019]] ). Mountain ecosystems are also highly susceptible to disasters and disturbances, which can lead to irreversible loss and challenge poverty reduction efforts ( [[#Mishra--2019|Mishra et al., 2019]] ) Some risks associated with the degradation and loss of habitats and ecosystem services associated with land use changes and commodities in many countries have compounding impacts on equity and sustainability, associated with permanent losses to the livelihoods of poor and marginalised groups, such as Indigenous Peoples and traditional communities around the world ( [[#Roy--2018|Roy et al., 2018]] ). For instance, high deforestation rates and increased forest burning in many Amazonian countries are further exposing vulnerable Indigenous Peoples and traditional populations to health problems, crop failures and shortages of freshwater supply, especially in the context of extreme droughts and non-supportive governance ( [[#Leal%20Filho--2020a|Leal Filho et al., 2020a]] ; [[#Walker--2020|Walker et al., 2020]] ).

Overall, there is increasing evidence that the compounding effects of climate hazards intertwined with dimensions of poverty, environmental degradation and inequalities, represent a key risk to equity and sustainability among poor and vulnerable populations ( ''medium evidence'' and ''high agreement'' ). Compounding risks—compared to compounding hazards—can also be significantly influenced by societal tipping points and by different factors of human vulnerability that determine underlying destabilisation processes of societies and communities exposed to climate change, including issues of governance.

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'''Box 8.6 | Social dimensions of the Amazonia forest fires and future risks'''
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The Amazon ecosystem, together with the Arctic, is listed as the first of five IPCC Reasons for Concern due to climate change, given the ''high confidence'' level that different temperature warming and GHG emissions will pose significant risks that threaten these unique ecosystems ( [[#O’Neill--2017b|O’Neill et al., 2017b]] ; [[#Roy--2018|Roy et al., 2018]] ). In addition to the scientific evidence, a resurgence of cross-national collective expressions about the fate of the Amazon forest, Indigenous Peoples and traditional communities, in the context of an unprecedented climate crisis and sustainable future, have gained pronounced importance. On 19 August 2019, the skies of Sao Paulo State were dark by 3 pm due to the formation of a ‘smoke corridor’ associated with the extensive burning of the Amazon forest ( [[#Seymour--2019|Seymour and Harris, 2019]] ). The fire outbreaks were a consequence of multiple factors related to political, social, economic and environmental scenarios concomitant with the weakening of environmental governance, such as control and monitoring of deforestation and fire incidences programmes ( [[#Escobar--2019|Escobar, 2019]] ; [[#Seymour--2019|Seymour and Harris, 2019]] ). The deforestation rate and incidences of fire are both increasing in the Amazon of Brazil, Colombia and Peru ( [[#Seymour--2019|Seymour and Harris, 2019]] ). Accordingly, 2019 registered an increase of 60% in the cumulative fire count in Brazil, Bolivia and Peru in comparison with the same period in 2018, and a 12% increase in comparison with the same period in an extremely dry year in 2016 (GFED, 2019). In this context, looking at this case study through the lenses of poverty, inequality and the SDGs, it addresses the compound effect of climate and land use change in the Amazon forest fires and its cascading impacts and risks on the social domain in the region. There is evidence that both climate and land use change impacts and risks are disproportionately borne by poor and vulnerable ethnic groups, remote rural communities and poor urban households in the Amazon ( [[#Pinho--2015|Pinho et al., 2015]] ; [[#Brondízio--2016|Brondízio et al., 2016]] ; [[#Mansur--2016|Mansur et al., 2016]] ; [[#Pinho--2016|Pinho, 2016]] ).

Fires are not a natural phenomenon in the Amazon region ( [[#Bush--2004|Bush et al., 2004]] ; [[#McMichael--2012|McMichael et al., 2012]] ); they are used for food security, hunting and religious rituals by Indigenous Peoples and traditional communities ( [[#Hecht--2006|Hecht, 2006]] ; [[#Carmenta--2019|Carmenta et al., 2019]] ; [[#da%20Cunha--2020|da Cunha, 2020]] ), and also as a widespread technique for land clearing for small- and large-scale farms for agriculture ( [[#Morello--2019|Morello et al., 2019]] ). The dramatically increased forest burning observed in the Amazon recently are the result of illegal land grabbing, the small-a and large-scale cattle ranching sector and agribusiness practices coupled with loosening of land tenure policies and decision makers’ neglect of deforestation and burning monitoring data ( [[#Nobre--2016|Nobre et al., 2016]] ; [[#Lovejoy--2018|Lovejoy and Nobre, 2018]] ; [[#Leal%20Filho--2020a|Leal Filho et al., 2020a]] ). The fire outbreaks intensified substantially to the point that, in August 2019, there were approximately 3500 fires in 148 Indigenous territories (DETER and INPE, 2019; ISA, 2019). Although most of the burning in the Legal Amazon in Brazil occurred on private land of medium and larger sizes (about 67%), around 33% was observed within Indigenous territories and protected areas called conservation units (UCs) (DETER and INPE, 2019; ISA, 2019). In 2019, 40% of the deforestation occurred in public forests, which encompasses undesignated forest lands, Indigenous territories and UCs. This deforestation came accompanied by fires: 18% of the 2019 fires occurred on undesignated lands, 7% on Indigenous territories and 6% on UCs, where many traditional populations live ( [[#Alencar--2020|Alencar et al., 2020]] ). During 2019, 46% of the deforestation and 52% of the fires occurred on private rural properties and settlements, respectively, where legal accountability for these crimes is possible. The 2020 deforestation rate increased by 47% and 9.5% compared to 2018 and 2019, respectively, and was the highest in the decade ( [[#Silveira--2020|Silveira et al., 2020]] ). The clear-cut inside indigenous territories more than doubled from 2018 to 2019 ( [[#Brasilis--2021|Brasilis, 2021]] ) and, despite it decreasing from the 2019 rate, during 2020 it was the highest since 2008. On average, at least 50% of yearly active fires were within 5 km of deforested areas in the same year, reaching 74% during 2019 ( [[#Silveira--2020|Silveira et al., 2020]] ). This means, that fires and deforestation have an increased threat to Indigenous populations ( [[#Oliveira--2020|Oliveira et al., 2020]] ), particularly during the year 2020 and currently in 2021, since COVID-19 and air pollution from agricultural burning greatly impacts respiratory health in the Amazon ( [[#Morello--2021|Morello, 2021]] ).

'''Health impacts, economic and non-economic losses'''
The health impacts and economic losses estimates are not homogeneously gathered for the entire Amazon basin countries, but some recent evidence associated with this knowledge gap shows the magnitude of the forest fire impacts, as well as where they spatially occur and who are the most affected by it. Fires associated with deforestation in the Amazon have been related to 1065–4714 deaths annually in South America ( [[#Reddington--2015|Reddington et al., 2015]] ). The recent fires in the Amazon basin are directly affecting 24 million Amazonians with the worst impacts felt by children and the elderly ( [[#Machado-Silva--2020|Machado-Silva et al., 2020]] ), Indigenous Peoples and traditional communities ( [[#Fellows--2020|Fellows et al., 2020]] ). Children under 5 years old and the elderly in rural areas are respectively 11 and 22 times more affected by the smoke from fire outbreaks and temperature increase in the Amazon ( [[#Machado-Silva--2020|Machado-Silva et al., 2020]] ).

In Acre State, the fire incidence coupled with extreme droughts in 2005 and 2010 led to an increase—from 1.2% to 27%—in hospitalisations of children (under 5 years) due to respiratory diseases ( [[#Smith--2015|Smith et al., 2015]] ). The same evidence was found among the rapidly deforested areas known as the ‘Arc of Deforestation’, with a dramatically higher number of respiratory diseases recorded, mainly in children under 5 years ( [[#do%20Carmo--2013|do Carmo et al., 2013]] ). There is also evidence for interlinked dynamics between deforestation, urbanisation and incidence of fire episodes providing an appropriate environment for ''Anopheles darlingi'' vector propagation and the increased incidence of malaria in the region ( [[#Hahn--2014|Hahn et al., 2014]] ). In the 2005 drought, burning in Acre alone recorded 400,000 people affected and the loss of 300,000 ha of forest with direct costs of USD 50 million ( [[#Brown--2006|Brown et al., 2006]] ). In 2010, the fires during the drought were approximately 16 times larger than those in the meteorologically normal years ( [[#Campanharo--2019|Campanharo et al., 2019]] ). The estimated total economic loss in 2010 was about USD 243.36 ± 85.05 million, representing 9.07 ± 2.46% of Acre’s GDP ( [[#Campanharo--2019|Campanharo et al., 2019]] ). The economic and non-economic losses associated with the impacts of climate change and future risks of fire outbreaks on native food crops (açai, guaraná), livelihoods, tourism, medicinal and spiritual sites, culture, migration patterns, place-based attachments, emotional and mental distress among the most affected and vulnerable population as Indigenous Peoples and traditional communities are still to be fully estimated for the region ( [[#Pinho--2015|Pinho et al., 2015]] ; [[#Brondízio--2016|Brondízio et al., 2016]] ). Also relevant is a trend of Amazonian forest fires spreading from the southern Brazilian Amazon to Bolivia and Peru, indicating that transboundary burning increases are systemic and will lead to extensive economic losses of wild crops, infrastructure and livelihoods, requiring a landscape level approach for deforestation and fire management and control ( [[#Kalamandeen--2018|Kalamandeen et al., 2018]] ).

'''Future vulnerabilities and risks for Indigenous Peoples and traditional communities'''
It is expected that by 2030 the incidence of extreme droughts in the Amazon will increase the costs of the health sector associated with treatment costs of respiratory diseases (20–50%) and malaria incidence (5–10%). This will also incur a high social cost as people will less able to carry out their livelihoods ( [[#Lapola--2018|Lapola et al., 2018]] ). It is also expected that the droughts will accelerate and intensify rural (traditional communities and Indigenous Peoples) migration to urban centres where migrants living standards are expected to decrease once they will occupy marginal areas within larger urban centres ( [[#Lapola--2018|Lapola et al., 2018]] ).

In terms of adaptation and risk reduction, priority should be given to strengthening multi-scale governance and partnerships among different private and public actors. Policies at national and sub-national levels are needed, such as control strategies to reduce deforestation and fire incidence, demarcating new Indigenous territories, payment for ecosystem services (REDD+) and investment in traceability for commodity production chains are needed ( [[#Morello--2017|Morello et al., 2017]] ; [[#Scarano--2017|Scarano, 2017]] ; [[#Carmenta--2019|Carmenta et al., 2019]] ; [[#Seymour--2019|Seymour and Harris, 2019]] ). The increase in global temperature level up to 2°C will exacerbate food and water insecurity in the Amazon ( [[#Betts--2018|Betts et al., 2018]] ; [[#Hoegh-Guldberg--2018|Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2018]] ) ( ''medium confidence'' ). Thus, curbing fire incidence and deforestation rate will make it easier for Indigenous Peoples, traditional and vulnerable populations to reach the SDGs, especially in terms of reducing poverty (SDG1), improving food security (SDG2), improving well-being and health (SDG3) and protecting terrestrial ecosystem (SDG15) ( [[#Roy--2018|Roy et al., 2018]] ).

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