Editing IPCC:AR6/SR15/Chapter-5 (section)

== 5.1 Scope and Delineations ==

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This chapter takes sustainable development as the starting point and focus for analysis, considering the broader bi-directional interplay and multifaceted interactions between development patterns and climate actions in a 1.5°C warmer world and in the context of eradicating poverty and reducing inequality. It assesses the impacts of keeping temperatures at or below 1.5°C of global warming above pre-industrial levels on sustainable development and compares the impacts avoided at 1.5°C compared to 2°C (Section 5.2). It then examines the interactions, synergies and trade-offs of adaptation (Section 5.3) and mitigation (Section 5.4) measures with sustainable development and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The chapter offers insights into possible pathways towards a 1.5°C warmer world, especially through climate-resilient development pathways providing a comprehensive vision across different contexts (Section 5.5). The chapter also identifies the conditions that would be needed to simultaneously achieve sustainable development, poverty eradication, the reduction of inequalities, and the 1.5°C climate objective (Section 5.6).

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=== 5.1.1 Sustainable Development, SDGs, Poverty Eradication and Reducing Inequalities ===

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Chapter 1 (see Cross-Chapter Box 4 in Chapter 1) defines sustainable development as ‘development that meets the needs of the present and future generations’ through balancing economic, social and environmental considerations, and then introduces the United Nations (UN) 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, which sets out 17 ambitious goals for sustainable development for all countries by 2030. These SDGs are: no poverty (SDG 1), zero hunger (SDG 2), good health and well-being (SDG 3), quality education (SDG 4), gender equality (SDG 5), clean water and sanitation (SDG 6), affordable and clean energy (SDG 7), decent work and economic growth (SDG 8), industry, innovation and infrastructure (SDG 9), reduced inequalities (SDG 10), sustainable cities and communities (SDG 11), responsible consumption and production (SDG 12), climate action (SDG 13), life below water (SDG 14), life on land (SDG 15), peace, justice and strong institutions (SDG 16) and partnerships for the goals (SDG 17).

The IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) included extensive discussion of links between climate and sustainable development, especially in Chapter 13 (Olsson et al., 2014) <sup>[[#fn:r1|1]]</sup> and Chapter 20 (Denton et al., 2014) <sup>[[#fn:r2|2]]</sup> in Working Group II and Chapter 4 (Fleurbaey et al., 2014) <sup>[[#fn:r3|3]]</sup> in Working Group III. However, the AR5 preceded the 2015 adoption of the SDGs and the literature that argues for their fundamental links to climate (Wright et al., 2015; Salleh, 2016; von Stechow et al., 2016; Hammill and Price-Kelly, 2017; ICSU, 2017; Maupin, 2017; Gomez-Echeverri, 2018) <sup>[[#fn:r4|4]]</sup> .

The SDGs build on efforts under the UN Millennium Development Goals to reduce poverty, hunger, and other deprivations. According to the UN, the Millennium Development Goals were successful in reducing poverty and hunger and improving water security (UN, 2015a) <sup>[[#fn:r5|5]]</sup> . However, critics argued that they failed to address within-country disparities, human rights and key environmental concerns, focused only on developing countries, and had numerous measurement and attribution problems (Langford et al., 2013; Fukuda-Parr et al., 2014) <sup>[[#fn:r6|6]]</sup> . While improvements in water security, slums and health may have reduced some aspects of climate vulnerability, increases in incomes were linked to rising greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and thus to a trade-off between development and climate change (Janetos et al., 2012; UN, 2015a; Hubacek et al., 2017) <sup>[[#fn:r7|7]]</sup> .

While the SDGs capture many important aspects of sustainable development, including the explicit goals of poverty eradication and reducing inequality, there are direct connections from climate to other measures of sustainable development including multidimensional poverty, equity, ethics, human security, well-being and climate-resilient development (Bebbington and Larrinaga, 2014; Robertson, 2014; Redclift and Springett, 2015; Barrington-Leigh, 2016; Helliwell et al., 2018; Kirby and O’Mahony, 2018) <sup>[[#fn:r8|8]]</sup> (see Glossary). The UN proposes sustainable development as ‘eradicating poverty in all its forms and dimensions, combating inequality within and among countries, preserving the planet, creating sustained, inclusive and sustainable economic growth and fostering social inclusion’ (UN, 2015b) <sup>[[#fn:r9|9]]</sup> . There is ''robust evidence'' of the links between climate change and poverty (see Chapter 1, Cross-Chapter Box 4). The AR5 concluded with ''high confidence'' that disruptive levels of climate change would preclude reducing poverty (Denton et al., 2014; Fleurbaey et al., 2014) <sup>[[#fn:r10|10]]</sup> . International organizations have since stated that climate changes ‘undermine the ability of all countries to achieve sustainable development’ (UN, 2015b) <sup>[[#fn:r11|11]]</sup> and can reverse or erase improvements in living conditions and decades of development (Hallegatte et al., 2016) <sup>[[#fn:r12|12]]</sup> .

Climate warming has unequal impacts on different people and places as a result of differences in regional climate changes, vulnerabilities and impacts, and these differences then result in unequal impacts on sustainable development and poverty (Section 5.2). Responses to climate change also interact in complex ways with goals of poverty reduction. The benefits of adaptation and mitigation projects and funding may accrue to some and not others, responses may be costly and unaffordable to some people and countries, and projects may disadvantage some individuals, groups and development initiatives (Sections 5.3 and 5.4, Cross-Chapter Box 11 in Chapter 4).

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=== 5.1.2 Pathways to 1.5°C ===

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Pathways to 1.5°C (see Chapter 1, Cross-Chapter Box 1 in Chapter 1, Glossary) include ambitious reductions in emissions and strategies for adaptation that are transformational, as well as complex interactions with sustainable development, poverty eradication and reducing inequalities. The AR5 WGII introduced the concept of climate-resilient development pathways (CRDPs) (see Glossary) which combine adaptation and mitigation to reduce climate change and its impacts, and emphasize the importance of addressing structural and intersecting inequalities, marginalization and multidimensional poverty to ‘transform […] the development pathways themselves towards greater social and environmental sustainability, equity, resilience, and justice’ (Olsson et al., 2014) <sup>[[#fn:r13|13]]</sup> . This chapter assesses literature on CRDPs relevant to 1.5°C global warming (Section 5.5.3), to understand better the possible societal and systems transformations (see Glossary) that reduce inequality and increase well-being (Figure 5.1). It also summarizes the knowledge on conditions to achieve such transformations, including changes in technologies, culture, values, financing and institutions that support low-carbon and resilient pathways and sustainable development (Section 5.6).

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'''Figure 5.1'''

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'''Climate-resilient development pathways (CRDPs) (green arrows) between a current world in which countries and communities exist at different levels of development (A) and future worlds that range from climate-resilient (bottom) to unsustainable (top) (D).'''
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[[File:b4ee3a82a32d70714082a88a7c6435f5 Figure5.1-1024x612.jpg]]

CRDPs involve societal transformation rather than business-as-usual approaches, and all pathways involve adaptation and mitigation choices and trade-offs (B). Pathways that achieve the Sustainable Development Goals by 2030 and beyond, strive for net zero emissions around mid-21st century, and stay within the global 1.5°C warming target by the end of the 21st century, while ensuring equity and well-being for all, are best positioned to achieve climate-resilient futures (C). Overshooting on the path to 1.5°C will make achieving CRDPs and other sustainable trajectories more difficult; yet, the limited literature does not allow meaningful estimates.

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=== 5.1.3 Types of Evidence ===

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A variety of sources of evidence are used to assess the interactions of sustainable development and the SDGs with the causes, impacts and responses to climate change of 1.5°C warming. This chapter builds on Chapter 3 to assess the sustainable development implications of impacts at 1.5°C and 2°C, and on Chapter 4 to examine the implications of response measures. Scientific and grey literature, with a post-AR5 focus, and data that evaluate, measure and model sustainable development–climate links from various perspectives, quantitatively and qualitatively, across scales, and through well-documented case studies are assessed.

Literature that explicitly links 1.5°C global warming to sustainable development across scales remains scarce; yet we find relevant insights in many recent publications on climate and development that assess impacts across warming levels, the effects of adaptation and mitigation response measures, and interactions with the SDGs. Relevant evidence also stems from emerging literature on possible pathways, overshoot and enabling conditions (see Glossary) for integrating sustainable development, poverty eradication and reducing inequalities in the context of 1.5°C.

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