Editing IPCC:AR6/WGI/Chapter-Atlas (section)

=== Cryosphere, Polar Regions and Small Islands ===

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'''Many aspects of the cryosphere either have seen significant changes in the recent past or will see them during the 21st century (''' ''high confidence'' '''). Snow cover duration has''' ''very likely'' '''reduced over Siberia and Eastern and Northern Europe. Also, it is''' ''virtually certain'' '''that snow cover will experience a decline in these regions and over most of North America during the 21st century, in terms of water equivalent, extent and annual duration. Over the Hindu Kush Himalaya, glacier mass is''' ''likely'' '''to decrease considerably (nearly 50%) under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios.''' Snow cover has declined over Australia as has annual maximum snow mass over North America ( ''medium confidence'' ). Some high-latitude regions have experienced increases in winter snow (parts of North Asia, ''medium confidence'' ) or will do so in the future ( ''very likely'' in parts of northern North America) due to the effect of increased snowfall prevailing over warming-induced increased snowmelt. { [[#2.3.2.2|2.3.2.2]] , [[#3.4.2|3.4.2]] ,, [[#Atlas.5.2.2|Atlas.5.2.2]] , [[#Atlas.5.3.4|Atlas.5.3.4]] , [[#Atlas.6.2|Atlas.6.2]] , [[#Atlas.8.2|Atlas.8.2]] , [[#Atlas.8.4|Atlas.8.4]] , [[#Atlas.9.2|Atlas.9.2]] , [[#Atlas.9.4|Atlas.9.4]] }

'''It is''' ''very likely'' '''that the Arctic has warmed at more than twice the global rate over the past 50 years and that the Antarctic Peninsula experienced a strong warming trend starting in 1950s. It is''' ''likely'' '''that Arctic annual precipitation has increased, with the highest increases during the cold season. Antarctic precipitation and surface mass balance showed a significant positive trend over the 20th century, while strong interannual variability masks any existing trend over recent decades''' [[#footnote-000|1]] '''(''' ''medium confidence'' ''').''' Significant warming trends are observed in other West Antarctic regions and at selected stations in East Antarctica since the 1950s ( ''medium confidence'' ). Under all assessed emissions scenarios, both polar regions are ''very likely'' to have higher annual mean surface air temperatures and more precipitation, with temperature increases higher than the global mean, most prominently in the Arctic. { [[#Atlas.11.1.2|Atlas.11.1.2]] , [[#Atlas.11.1.4|Atlas.11.1.4]] , [[#Atlas.11.2.2|Atlas.11.2.2]] , [[#Atlas.11.2.4|Atlas.11.2.4]] }

'''It is''' ''very likely'' '''that most Small Islands have warmed over the period of instrumental records. Precipitation has''' ''likely'' '''decreased since the mid-20th century in some parts of the Pacific poleward of 20° latitude in both hemispheres and in the Caribbean in June–July–August. It is''' ''very likely'' '''that sea levels will continue to rise in Small Island regions and that this will result in increased coastal flooding.''' Observed temperature trends are generally in the range of 0.15°C–0.2°C per decade. Rainfall trends in most other Pacific Ocean and Indian Ocean Small Islands are mixed and largely non-significant. There is ''limited evidence'' and ''low agreement'' on the cause of the Caribbean drying trend, though it is ''likely'' that both this and the Pacific drying trends will continue in coming decades with drying also projected in the part of the Western Indian and Atlantic oceans. Small Island regions in the western and Equatorial Pacific Ocean, and in the northern Indian Ocean are ''likely'' to be wetter in the future. { Cross-Chapter Box Atlas.2, [[#Atlas.10.2|Atlas.10.2]] , [[#Atlas.10.4|Atlas.10.4]] }

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