Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Chapter-12 (section)

===== What are the projected impacts and key risks? =====

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'''Climate change is projected to convert existing risks in the region into severe key risks (''' '''''medium confidence''''' ''').''' Key risks are assessed as follows: 1. Risk of food insecurity due to droughts; 2. Risk to people and infrastructure due to floods and landslides; 3. Risk of water insecurity due to declining snow cover, shrinking glaciers and rainfall variability; 4. Risk of increasing epidemics, particularly of vector-borne diseases; 5. Cascading risks surpassing public service systems; 6. Risk of large-scale changes and biome shifts in the Amazon; 7. Risks to coral reef ecosystems; and 8. Risks to coastal socioecological systems due to sea level rise (SLR), storm surges and coastal erosion. {12.3, 12.4, Figure 12.9, Figure 12.11, Table 12.6, Table SM12.5}

'''Impacts on rural livelihoods and food security, particularly for small and medium-sized farmers and Indigenous peoples in the mountains, are projected to worsen, including the overall reduction of agricultural production, suitable farming area and water availability (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''').''' Projected yield reductions by 2050 under the A2 scenario are as follows: beans 19%, maize 4–21%, rice 23% in CA with seasonal droughts projected to lengthen, intensify and increase in frequency. Small fisheries and farming of seafood will be negatively affected as El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events become more frequent and intense and ocean warming and acidification continues ( ''medium confidence'' ). {12.2, 12.3, 12.4, Figure 12.9, Figure 12.11, Table 12.4}

'''Extreme precipitation events, which result in floods, landslides and droughts, are projected to intensify in magnitude and frequency due to climate change (''' '''''medium confidence''''' ''').''' Floods and landslides pose a risk to life and infrastructure; a 1.5°C increase would result in an increase of 100–200% in the population affected by floods in Colombia, Brazil and Argentina, 300% in Ecuador and 400% in Peru ( ''medium confidence'' ). {12.3, Figure 12.7, Figure 12.9, Table SM12.5}

'''Increasing water scarcity and competition over water are projected (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''').''' Disruption in water flows will significantly degrade ecosystems such as high-elevation wetlands and affect farming communities, public health and energy production ( ''high confidence'' ). {12.3, Figure 12.3, Figure 12.9, Figure 12.11}

'''In coming decades, endemic and emerging climate-sensitive infectious diseases are projected to increase (''' '''''medium confidence''''' ''').''' This can happen through expanded distribution of vectors, especially viral infectious diseases of zoonotic origin in transition areas between urban and suburban, or rural settings, and upslope in the mountains ( ''medium confidence'' ). {12.3.2, 12.3.5, 12.3.7, Figure 12.5, Figure 12.9, Figure 12.11, Table 12.6, Table SM12.5}

'''The positive feedback between climate change and land use change, particularly deforestation, is projected to increase the threat to the Amazon forest, resulting in the increase of fire occurrence, forest degradation (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''') and long-term loss of forest structure (''' '''''medium confidence''''' ''').''' The combined effect of both impacts will lead to a long-term decrease in carbon stocks in forest biomass, compromising Amazonia’s role as a carbon sink, largely conditioned on the forest’s responses to elevated atmospheric CO 2 ( ''medium confidence'' ). The southern portion of the Amazon has become a net carbon source to the atmosphere in the past decade ( ''high confidence'' ). {12.3.3, 12.3.4, Figure 12.9, Figure 12.11, Table 12.6, Table SM12.5}

'''Up to 85% of natural systems (plant and animal species, habitats and communities) evaluated in the literature for biodiversity hotspots in the region are projected to be negatively impacted by climate change (''' '''''medium confidence''''' ''').''' Available studies focus mainly on vertebrates and plants of the Atlantic Forest and Cerrado in Brazil and in CA, with a large knowledge gap on freshwater ecosystems {12.3, 12.5.1, CCP1}

'''Ocean and coastal ecosystems in the region will continue to be highly impacted by climate change (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''').''' Coral reefs are projected to lose their habitat, change their distribution range and suffer more bleaching events driven by ocean warming. In the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, by 2050, virtually every coral reef will experience at least one severe bleaching event per year ( ''high confidence'' ). Under all RCP scenarios of climate change, there will be changes in the geographical distribution of marine species and ocean and coastal ecosystems such as mangroves, estuaries and rocky shores, as well as those species held in fisheries ( ''medium confidence'' ). {Figure 12.9, Table SM12.3, Table SM12.4}

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