Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Chapter-13 (section)

===== What Are the Solutions, Limits and Opportunities of Adaptation? =====

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'''There are a growing range of adaptation options available today to deal with future climate risks (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''').''' Examples of adaptation to the key risks include: behavioural change combined with building interventions, space cooling and urban planning to manage heat risks (KR1); restoration, expansion and connection of protected areas for ecosystems, while generating adaptation and mitigation benefits for people (KR1: heat); irrigation, vegetation cover, changes in farming practices, crop and animal species, and shifting planting (KR2: agriculture); efficiency improvements, water storage, water reuse, early warning systems and land-use change (KR3: water scarcity); early warning systems, reserving space for water and ecosystem-based adaptation, sediment or engineering-based options, land-use change and managed retreat (KR4: flooding). Nature-based Solutions for flood protection and heat alleviation are themselves under threat from warming, extreme heat, drought and SLR ( ''high confidence'' ) {13.2.2;13.3.2;13.4.2;13.5.2;13.6.2;13.7.2;13.8.2;13.9.4;13.10.2;13.11} .

'''In many parts of Europe, existing and planned adaptation measures are not sufficient to avoid the residual risk, especially beyond 1.5''' ° '''C GWL (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''').''' Residual risk can result in losses of habitat and ecosystem services, heat related deaths (KR1), crop failures (KR2), water rationing during droughts in Southern Europe (KR3) and loss of land (KR4) ( ''medium confidence'' ). At 3°C GWL and beyond, a combination of many, maybe even all, adaptation options are needed, including transformational changes, to reduce residual risk ( ''medium confidence'' ). {13.2.2;13.3.2;13.4.2;13.5.2;13.6.2;13.7.2;13.8.2;13.9.4;13.10.2;13.11} .

'''Although adaptation is happening across Europe, it is not implemented at the scale, depth and speed needed to avoid the risks (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''').''' Many sectors and systems, such as flood risk management, critical infrastructure and reforestation, are on self-reinforcing development paths that can result in lock-ins and prevent changes needed to reduce risks in the long term and achieve adaptation targets. Forward-looking and adaptive planning can prevent path dependencies and maladaptation, and ensure timely action ( ''high confidence'' ). Monitoring climate change, socioeconomic developments and progress on implementation is critical in assessing if and when further actions are needed, and evaluating whether adaptation is successful {13.2.2;13.10.2;13.11.1;13.11.2;13.11.3; Cross-Chapter Box DEEP in Chapter 17} .

'''Systemic barriers constrain the implementation of adaptation options in vulnerable sectors, regions and societal groups (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''').''' Key barriers are limited resources, lack of private-sector and citizen engagement, insufficient mobilisation of finance, lack of political leadership and low sense of urgency. Most of the adaptation options to the key risks depend on limited water and land resources, creating competition and trade-offs, also with mitigation options and socioeconomic developments ( ''high confidence'' ). Europe will face difficult decisions balancing these trade-offs. Novel adaptation options are pilot tested across Europe, but upscaling remains challenging. Prioritisation of options and transitions from incremental to transformational adaptation are limited due to vested interests, economic lock-ins, institutional path dependencies and prevalent practices, cultures, norms and belief systems {13.11.1;13.11.2;13.11.3} .

'''Several windows of opportunity emerge to accelerate climate resilient development (CRD) (''' '''''medium confidence''''' ''').''' Such windows are either institutionalised (e.g., budget cycles, policy reforms and evaluations, infrastructure investment cycles) or open unexpectedly (e.g., extreme events, COVID-19 recovery programmes). These windows can be used to accelerate action through mainstreaming and transformational actions ( ''medium confidence'' ). This CRD is visible in European cities, particularly in green infrastructure, energy-efficient buildings and construction, and where co-benefits (e.g., to health, biodiversity) have been identified. Private-sector adaptation takes place mostly in response to extreme events or regulatory, shareholder or consumer pressures and incentives ( ''medium confidence'' ) {13.11.3; Box 13.3; Cross-Chapter Box COVID in Chapter 7} .

'''Closing the adaptation gap requires moving beyond short-term planning and ensuring timely and adequate implementation''' '''(''' '''''high confidence''''' ''').''' Inclusive, equitable and just adaptation pathways are critical for CRD. Such pathways require consideration of SDGs, gender and Indigenous knowledge and local knowledge (IKLK) and practices. The success of adaptation will depend on our understanding of which adaptation options are feasible and effective in their local context (high confidence). Long lead times for nature-based and infrastructure solutions or planned relocation require implementation in the coming decade to reduce risks in time. To close the adaptation gap, political commitment, persistence and consistent action across scales of government, and upfront mobilisation of human and financial capital, is key (high confidence), even when the benefits are not immediately visible {13.2.2;13.8;13.11; Cross-Chapter Box GENDER in Chapter 18} .

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