Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Chapter-15 (section)

===== Future Risks =====

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'''The reduced habitability of small islands is an overarching significant risk caused by a combination of several key risks facing most small islands even under a global temperature scenario of 1.5°C''' '''''(high confidence)''''' '''.''' These are loss of marine and coastal biodiversity and ecosystem services; submergence of reef islands; loss of terrestrial biodiversity and ecosystem services; water insecurity; destruction of settlements and infrastructure; degradation of health and well-being; economic decline and livelihood failure); and loss of cultural resources and heritage. Climate-related ocean changes, including those for slow-onset events, and changes in extreme events are projected to cause and/or amplify Keys Risks in most small islands. Identification of key risks facilitates the selection of optimal context-specific adaptation options. Moreover, it can distil the benefits and/or disadvantages and long-term implications of choosing such options ( ''high confidence'' ) {15.3.4.9} .

'''The vulnerability of communities in small islands, especially those relying on coral reef systems for livelihoods, may exceed adaptation limits well before 2100 even for a low greenhouse gas emission pathway (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''').''' The impacts of climate change on vulnerable low-lying and coastal areas present serious threats to the ability of land to support human life and livelihood ( ''high confidence'' ). Climate-related migration is expected to increase, although the drivers and outcomes are highly context-specific and insufficient evidence exists to estimate numbers of climate-related migrants now and in the future ( ''medium evidence, high agreement'' ) {15.3.4.1, 15.3.4.6, CCB7-1} .

'''Small islands are already reporting losses and damages particularly from tropical cyclones and increases in SLR''' '''''(high confidence).''''' Despite the loss of human life and economic damage, the methods and mechanisms to assess climate-induced loss and damage remain largely undeveloped for small islands. Further, there are no robust methodologies to infer attribution and such assessments are limited. A research gap on losses and damages includes how to assess the economic costs of losses and damages. Specific data on experienced losses and damages across socioeconomic groups and demographics are needed. Monitoring and tracking slow-onset events are equally important and require robust data {15.7, 15.8} .

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