Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Chapter-5 (section)

=== Adaptation ===

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'''Many autonomous adaptation options have been implemented in both terrestrial and aquatic systems, but on-farm adaptations are insufficient to meet Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 2 (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''').''' Autonomous responses include livestock and farm management, switching varieties/species and altered timing of key farm activities such as planting or stocking ( ''high confidence'' ). However, because of limited adaptive capacities and non-climatic compounding drivers of food insecurity, SDG2 will not be met ( ''high confidence'' ). {Table 5.1, 5.4.4; 5.5.4, 5.9.4, 5.10.4; 5.12.4}

'''Various adaptation options are currently feasible and effective at reducing climate impacts in different socio-cultural, economic and geographical contexts (''' '''''high confidence''''' '''), but some lack adequate economic or institutional feasibility or information on limits (''' '''''medium confidence''''' ''').''' Feasible and effective options include cultivar improvements, community-based adaptation, agricultural diversification, climate services, adaptive eco-management in fisheries and aquaculture. There is ''limited evidence'' , ''medium agreement'' on the institutional feasibility or cost effectiveness of adaptation activities, and the limits to such adaptations. {5.4.4, 5.5.4, 5.6.3, 5.8.4, 5.9.4, 5.10.4, 5.11.4, 5.12.4, 5.14.1}

'''Ecosystem-based approaches such as diversification, land restoration, agroecology and agroforestry have the potential to strengthen resilience to climate change with multiple co-benefits, but trade-offs and benefits vary with socio-ecological context (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''').''' Ecosystem-based approaches support long-term productivity and ecosystem services such as pest control, soil health, pollination and buffering of temperature extremes ( ''high confidence'' ), but potential and trade-offs vary by socioeconomic context, ecosystem zone, species combinations and institutional support ( ''medium confidence'' ). {5.4.4.4, 5.6.3, 5.10.4, 5.14.1, Cross-Chapter Box NATURAL in Chapter 2; Cross-Working Group Box BIOECONOMY this chapter}

'''Bio-based products as part of a circular bioeconomy have potential to support adaptation and mitigation, with sectoral integration, transparent governance and stakeholder involvement key to maximising benefits and managing trade-offs (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''').''' A sustainable bioeconomy relying on bioresources will need to be supported by technology innovation and international cooperation and governance of global trade to disincentivise environmental and social externalities ( ''medium confidence'' ). {Cross-Working Group Box BIOECONOMY this chapter}

'''Sustainable resource management in response to distribution shifts of terrestrial and aquatic species under climate change is an effective adaptation option to reduce food and nutritional risk, conflict and loss of livelihood (''' '''''medium confidence''''' ''').''' Adaptive transboundary governance and ecosystem-based management, livelihood diversification, capacity development and improved knowledge-sharing will reduce conflict and promote the fair distribution of sustainably harvested wild products and revenues ( ''medium confidence'' ). Other options include shared quotas and access rights considering trade-offs, shifting livelihoods to follow target species, new markets for emerging species, and technology {Cross Chapter Box MOVING PLATE this chapter, 5.8.4, 5.14.3.4}

'''Implemented adaptation in crop production will be insufficient to offset the negative effects of climate change (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''').''' Currently available management options have the potential to compensate global crop production losses due to climate change up to ~2°C warming, but the negative impacts even with adaptation will grow substantially from the mid-century under high temperature change scenarios ( ''high confidence'' ). Regionally, the negative effects will prevail sooner where current temperatures are already higher as in lower latitudes ( ''high confidence'' ). {5.2.2, 5.4.3, 5.4.4, 5.8.4, 5.9.4, 5.14.2.4}

'''Supportive public policies will enhance effectiveness and/or feasibility of adaptation in ecosystem provisioning services (''' '''''medium confidence''''' ''').''' Policies that support system transitions include shifting subsidies, removing perverse incentives, regulation and certification, green public procurement, investment in sustainable value chains, support for capacity-building, access to insurance premiums, payments for ecosystem services, and social protection, among others ( ''medium confidence'' ). {5.4.4.3; 5.4.4.4; 5.10.4.4; 5.12.6; 5.13.4; 5.14.1.3; 5.14.2.4; Box 5.13, Cross-Working Group Box BIOECONOMY in Chapter 2}

'''Harnessing youth innovation and vision alongside other SDGs such as gender equity, Indigenous knowledge, local knowledge, and urban and rural livelihoods, will support effective climate change adaptation to ensure resilient economies in food systems (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''').''' Adaptation strategies that address power inequities lead to co-benefits in equity outcomes and resilience for vulnerable groups ( ''medium confidence'' ). Indigenous knowledge and local knowledge facilitate adaptation strategies for ecosystem provisioning, especially when combined with scientific knowledge using participatory and community-based approaches ( ''high confidence'' ). {5.4.4.3, Table 5.6, 5.6.3, 5.8.4, 5.9.2, 5.9.4.1, 5.9.5, 5.10.2.2, 5.12.7, 5.12.8, 5.13.4, 5.13.5, 5.14.1.1, 5.14.1.2, 5.14.1.4,5.14.2.1, Box 5.13, 5.14.2.2 }

'''Policy decisions related to climate change adaptation and mitigation that ignore or worsen risks of adverse effects for different groups and ecosystems increase vulnerability, negatively affect capacity to deal with climate impacts, and impede sustainable development (''' '''''medium confidence with robust evidence, medium agreement''''' ''')''' '''''.''''' Lacking sufficient stakeholder participation, large-scale land acquisitions have had mostly negative implications for vulnerable groups and climate change adaptation ( ''high confidence'' ). Policy and programme appraisal of adaptation options that consider the risks of adverse effects across different groups at different scales and use inclusive rights-based approaches help avoid maladaptation ( ''medium confidence'' ). Successful forest adaptation involves recognition of land rights and cooperation with Indigenous Peoples and other local communities who depend on forest resources ( ''high confidence'' ). {5.6.3; 5.12.3, 5.13.1; 5.13.2; 5.14.2.1}

'''Financial barriers limit implementation of adaptation options in agriculture, fisheries, aquaculture and forestry, and vastly more public and private investment is required (''' '''''high confidence)''''' '''.''' Public-sector investment in adaptation of agriculture, forestry and fisheries has grown four-fold since 2010, but adaptation costs will be much higher to meet future adaptation needs ( ''medium confidence'' ). Expanding access to financial services and pooling climate risks will enable and incentivise climate change adaptation ( ''medium confidence'' ). {5.14.3, 5.14.5., Cross-Chapter Box FINANCE in Chapter 17}

'''Climate resilient development pathways offer a way forward to guide climate action in food system transitions, but operationalisation is hampered by limited indicators and analyses (''' '''''medium confidence''''' ''').''' Robust analyses are needed that detail plausible pathways to move towards more resilient, equitable and sustainable food systems in ways that are socially, economically and environmentally acceptable through time (high confidence). Appropriate monitoring and rapid feedback to food system actors will be critical to the success of many current and future adaptation actions (high confidence). {5.14.4}

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