Editing IPCC:AR6/WGIII/Chapter-7 (section)

=== 7.1.2 Boundaries, Scope and Changing Context of the Current Report ===

<div id="h2-2-siblings" class="h2-siblings"></div>

This chapter assesses GHG fluxes between land and the atmosphere due to AFOLU, the associated drivers behind these fluxes, mitigation response options and related policy, at time scales of 2030 and 2050. Land and its management has important links with other sectors and therefore associated chapters within this report, notably concerning the provision of food, feed, fuel or fibre for human consumption and societal well-being (Chapter 5), for bioenergy (Chapter 6), the built environment (Chapter 9), transport (Chapter 10) and industry (Chapter 11). Mitigation within these sectors may in part, be dependent on contributions from land and the AFOLU sector, with interactions between all sectors discussed in Chapter 12. This chapter also has important links with IPCC AR6 WGII regarding climate change impacts and adaptation. Linkages are illustrated in Figure 7.1.

As highlighted in both AR5 and the SRCCL, there is a complex interplay between land management and GHG fluxes as illustrated in Figure 7.2, with considerable variation in management regionally, as a result of geophysical, climatic, ecological, economic, technological, institutional and socio-cultural diversity. The capacity for land-based mitigation varies accordingly. The principal focus of this chapter is therefore, on evaluating regional land-based mitigation potential, identifying applicable AFOLU mitigation measures, estimating associated costs and exploring policy options that could enable implementation.

<div id="_idContainer009" class="_idGenObjectStyleOverride-1"></div>

[[File:7224304bad0e336e9e430200042fb545 IPCC_AR6_WGIII_Figure_7_2.png]]

'''Figure 7.2 | Summarised representation of interactions between land management, its products in terms of food and fibre, and land–atmospheric GHG fluxes.''' For legibility reasons only a few of the processes and management measures are depicted.

Mitigation measures are broadly categorised as those relating to (i) forests and other ecosystems (ii) agriculture (iii) biomass production for products and bioenergy and (iv) demand-side levers. Assessment is made in the context that land-mitigation is expected to contribute roughly 25% of the 2030 mitigation pledged in Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement ( [[#Grassi--2017|Grassi et al. 2017]] ), yet very few countries have provided details on how this will be achieved. In light of AR5 and the SRCCL findings, that indicate large land-based mitigation potential, considerable challenges to its realisation, but also a clear nexus at which humankind finds itself, whereby current land management, driven by population growth and consumption patterns, is undermining the very capacity of land, a finite resource, to support wider critical functions and services on which humankind depends. Mitigation within AFOLU is occasionally and wrongly perceived as an opportunity for in-action within other sectors. AFOLU simply cannot compensate for mitigation shortfalls in other sectors. As the outcomes of many critical challenges ( [[#UNEP--2019|UNEP 2019]] ), including biodiversity loss (IPBES 2019a) and soil degradation ( [[#FAO%20and%20ITPS--2015|FAO and ITPS 2015]] ), are inextricably linked with how we manage land, the evaluation and assessment of AFOLU is crucial. This chapter aims to address three core topics:

1. What is the latest estimated (economic) mitigation potential of AFOLU measures according to both sectoral studies and integrated assessment models, and how much of this may be realistic within each global region?

2. How do we realise the mitigation potential, while minimising trade-offs and risks and maximising co-benefits that can enhance food and fibre security, conserve biodiversity and address other land challenges?

3. How effective have policies been so far and what additional policies or incentives might enable realisation of mitigation potential and at what costs?

This chapter first outlines the latest trends in AFOLU fluxes and the methodology supporting their estimation ( [[#7.2|Section 7.2]] ). Direct and indirect drivers behind emission trends are discussed in [[#7.3|Section 7.3]] . Mitigation measures, their costs, co-benefits, trade-offs, estimated regional potential and contribution within integrated global mitigation scenarios, is presented in Sections 7.4 and 7.5 respectively. Assessment of associated policy responses and links with SDGs are explored in [[#7.6|Section 7.6]] . The chapter concludes with gaps in knowledge ( [[#7.7|Section 7.7]] ) and frequently asked questions.

<div id="7.2" class="h1-container"></div>

<span id="historical-and-current-trends-in-ghg-emission-and-removals-their-uncertainties-and-implications-for-assessing-collective-climate-progress"></span>