Editing IPCC:AR6/WGI/TS (section)

===== TS.4.3.2.6 North America =====

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'''Additional regional changes in North America, besides those features described in Section TS.4.3.1, include changes in North American wet and dry CIDs, which are largely organized by the north-east (more wet) to south-west (more dry) pattern of mean precipitation change, although heavy precipitation increases are widespread ( ''high confidence'' ). Increasing evaporative demand will expand agricultural and ecological drought and fire weather (particularly in summertime) in Central North America, Western North America and Northern Central America (from ''medium'' to ''high confidence'' ). Severe wind storms, tropical cyclones and dust storms in North America are shifting toward more extreme characteristics ( ''medium confidence'' ), and both observations and projections point to strong changes in the seasonal and geographic range of snow and ice conditions in the coming decades ( ''very high confidence'' ). General findings for relative sea level, coastal flooding and erosion will not apply for areas with substantial land uplift around the Hudson Bay and Southern Alaska. Links to chapters 8.4, 11.4, 11.5, 11.7, 11.9, 12.4, Atlas.9.4'''
In addition to the main changes summarized above and in Section TS.4.3.1, further details are given below.

'''Heat and cold:''' Observed and projected increases in mean temperature and a shift toward heat extreme characteristics are broadly similar to the generic pattern described in Section TS.4.3.1. Links to chapters 11.3, 11.9, 12.4.6.1, Atlas.9.2, Atlas.9.4

'''Wet and dry:''' Annual precipitation increased over parts of Eastern and Central North America during 1960–2015 ( ''high confidence'' ) and has decreased in parts of south-western United States and north-western Mexico ( ''medium confidence'' ). River floods are projected to increase for all North American regions other than Northern Central America (med ''ium confidence'' ). Links to chapters 8.4.2.4, 11.4, 11.5, 11.9, 12.4.6.2, Atlas.9.2, Atlas.9.4

Agricultural and ecological drought increases have been observed in Western North America ( ''medium confidence'' ), and aridity is projected to increase in the south-western United States and Northern Central America, with lower summer soil moisture across much of the continental interior ( ''medium confidence'' ). Links to chapters 8.4.1, 11.6.2, 12.4.6.2

'''Wind:''' Projections indicate a greater number of the most intense TCs, with slower translation speeds and higher rainfall potential for Mexico’s Pacific Coast, the Gulf Coast and the United States East Coast ( ''medium confidence'' ). Mean wind speed and wind power potential are projected to decrease in Western North America ( ''high confidence'' ), with differences between global and regional models lending ''low confidence'' elsewhere. Links to chapters 11.4, 11.7, 12.4.6.3

'''Snow and ice:''' It is ''likely'' that some high-latitude regions will experience an increase in winter snow water equivalent due to the snowfall increase prevailing over the warming trend. At sustained GWLs between 3°C and 5°C, nearly all glacial mass in Western Canada and Western North America will disappear ( ''medium confidence'' ). Links to chapters 9.5.1, 9.5.3, 12.4.6.4, Atlas.9.4

'''Coastal and oceanic:''' Around North America, relative sea level has increased over the last three decades at a rate lower than GMSL in the subpolar North Atlantic and in the East Pacific, while it has increased at a rate higher than GMSL in the subtropical North Atlantic. Observations indicate that episodic coastal flooding is increasing along many coastlines in North America. Shoreline retreat rates of around 1 m yr <sup>–1</sup> have been observed during 1984–2015 along the sandy coasts of North-Western North America and Northern Central America, while portions of the United States Gulf Coast have seen a retreat rate approaching 2.5 m yr <sup>–1</sup> . Sandy shorelines along Eastern North America and Western North America have remained more or less stable during 1984–2014, but a shoreline progradation rate of around 0.5 m yr <sup>–1</sup> has been observed in North-Eastern North America. Links to chapters 12.4.6.5

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