Editing IPCC:AR6/WGIII/Chapter-10 (section)

=== 10.8.1 Conclusions Across the Chapter ===

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This final section draws some conclusions from the chapter and provides an overview-based feasibility assessment of the major transport mitigation options, as well as a description of emerging issues. The section ends by outlining an integrated framework for enabling the transformative changes that are emerging and required to meet the potential transformative scenarios from [[#10.7|Section 10.7]] .

Transport is becoming a major focus for mitigation as its GHG emissions are large and growing faster than those of other sectors, especially in aviation and shipping. The scenarios literature suggests that without mitigation actions, transport emissions could grow by up to 65% by 2050. Alternatively, successful deployment of mitigation strategies could reduce sectoral emissions by 68%, which would be consistent with the goal of limiting temperature change to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. This chapter has reviewed the literature on all aspects of transport and has featured three special points of focus: (i) a survey of lifecycle analysis from the academic and industry community that uses these tools; (ii) surveying the modelling community for top-down and bottom-up approaches to identify decarbonisation pathways for the transport sector, and (iii) for the first time in the IPCC, separate sections on shipping and aviation. The analysis of the literature suggests three crucial components for the decarbonisation of the transport sector: demand and efficiency strategies, electromobility, and alternative fuels for shipping and aviation.

The challenge of decarbonisation requires a transition of the socio-technical system, which depends on the combination of technological innovation and societal change ( [[#Geels--2017|Geels et al. 2017]] ). A socio-technical system includes technology, regulation, user practices and markets, cultural meaning, infrastructure, maintenance networks, and supply networks ( [[#Geels--2005|Geels 2005]] ) (Cross Chapter Box 12 in Chapter 16). The multi-level perspective (MLP) is a framework that provides insights to assist policymakers when devising transformative transition policies ( [[#Rip--1998|Rip and Kemp 1998]] ; [[#Geels--2002|Geels 2002]] ). Under the MLP framework, strategies are grouped into three different categories. The Micro level (niche) category includes strategies where innovation differs radically to that of the incumbent socio-technical system. The niche provides technological innovations a protected space during development and usually requires considerable R&amp;D and demonstrations. In the Meso level (regime) state, demonstrations begin to emerge as options that can be adopted by leading groups who begin to overcome lock-in barriers from previous technological dependence. Finally, in the Macro level (landscape) stage, mainstreaming happens, and the socio-technical system enables innovations to break through. Figure 10.22 maps the MLP stages for the major mitigation strategies identified in this chapter.

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[[File:7e68c42701cd3beee0e92de7bac2caea IPCC_AR6_WGIII_Figure_10_17.png]]

'''Figure 10.22 | Mitigation options and enabling conditions for transport.''' Niche scale includes strategies that still require innovation.

'''Demand and behaviour''' . While technology options receive substantial attention in this chapter, there are many social and equity issues that cannot be neglected in any transformative change to mitigate climate change. Transport systems are socio-economic systems that include systemic factors that are developing into potentially transformative drivers of emissions from the sector. These systemic drivers include, for example, changes in urban form that minimise automobile dependence and reduce stranded assets; behaviour change programmes that emphasise shared values and economies; smart technologies that enable better and more equitable options for transit and active transport as well as integrated approaches to using autonomous vehicles; new ways of enabling electric charging systems to fit into electricity grids, creating synergistic benefits to grids, improving the value of electric transit, and reducing range anxiety for EV users; and new concepts for the future economy such as circular economy, dematerialisation, and shared economy that have the potential to affect the structure of the transport sector. The efficacy of demand reduction and efficiency opportunities depends on the degree of prioritisation and focus by government policy. Figure 10.22 suggests that innovative demand and efficiency strategies are at the regime scales. While these strategies are moving beyond R&amp;D, they are not mainstreamed yet and have been shown to work much more effectively if combined with technology changes, as has been outlined in the transformative scenarios from [[#10.7|Section 10.7]] and in Chapter 5.

'''Electromobility in land-based transport''' . Since AR5, there has been a significant breakthrough in the opportunities to reduce transport GHG emissions in an economically efficient way due to electrification of land-based vehicle systems, which are now commercially available. EV technologies are particularly well established for light-duty passenger vehicles, including micromobility. Furthermore, there are positive developments to enable EV technologies for buses, light- and medium-duty trucks, and some rail applications (though advanced biofuels and hydrogen may also contribute to the decarbonisation of these vehicles in some contexts). In developing countries, where micromobility and public transit account for a large share of travel, EVs are ideal to support mitigation of emissions. Finally, demand for critical materials needed for batteries has become a focus of attention, as described in Box 10.6.

Electromobility options are moving from regime to landscape levels. This transition is evident in the trend of incumbent automobile manufacturers producing an increasing range of EVs in response to demand, policy, and regulatory signals. EVs for light-duty passenger travel are largely commercial and likely to become competitive with ICE vehicles in the early 2020s ( [[#Dia--2019|Dia 2019]] ; [[#Bond--2020|Bond et al. 2020]] ; [[#Koasidis--2020|Koasidis et al. 2020]] ). As these adopted technologies increase throughout cities and regions, governments and energy suppliers will have to deploy new infrastructure to support them, including reliable low-carbon grids and charging stations ( [[#Sierzchula--2014|Sierzchula et al. 2014]] ). In addition, regulatory reviews will be necessary to ensure equitable transition and achievement of SDGs, addressing the multitude of possible barriers that may be present due to the incumbency of traditional automotive manufacturers and associated supporting elements of the socio-technical system ( [[#Newman--2020b|Newman 2020b]] ) (Chapter 6). Similarly, new partnerships between government, industry, and communities will be needed to support the transition to electromobility. These partnerships could be particularly effective at supporting engagement and education programmes ( [[#Newman--2020b|Newman 2020b]] ) (Chapter 8).

Deployment of electromobility is not limited to developed countries. The transportation sector in low- and middle-income countries includes millions of gas-powered motorcycles within cities across Africa, South-East Asia, and South America ( [[#Posada--2011|Posada et al. 2011]] ; [[#Ehebrecht--2018|Ehebrecht et al. 2018]] ). Many of these motorcycles function as taxis. In Kampala, Uganda, estimates place the number of motorcycle taxis, known locally as ''boda bodas'' , at around 40,000 ( [[#Ehebrecht--2018|Ehebrecht et al. 2018]] ). The popularity of the motorcycle for personal and taxi use is due to many factors including lower upfront costs, lack of regulation, and mobility in highly congested urban contexts ( [[#Posada--2011|Posada et al. 2011]] ; [[#UNECE--2018|UNECE 2018]] ). While motorcycles are often seen as a more fuel-efficient alternative, emissions can be worse from two-wheelers than cars, particularly nitrogen oxides (NOx), carbon monoxide (CO), and hydrocarbon emissions ( [[#Vasic--2006|Vasic and Weilenmann 2006]] ; [[#Ehebrecht--2018|Ehebrecht et al. 2018]] ). These two-wheeler emissions contribute to dangerous levels of air pollution across many cities in low- and middle-income countries. In Kampala, for example, air pollution levels frequently exceed levels deemed safe for humans by the World Health Organization (Kampala Capital City Authority 2018; [[#World%20Health%20Organization--2018|World Health Organization 2018]] ; [[#Airqo--2020|Airqo 2020]] ). To mitigate local and environmental impacts, electric ''boda boda'' providers are emerging in many cities, including Zembo in Kampala and Ampersand in Kigali, Rwanda.

Bulawayo, the second-largest city in Zimbabwe, is also looking at opportunities for deploying electromobility solutions. The city is now growing again after a difficult recent history, and there is a new emphasis on achieving the Sustainable Development Goals ( [[#City%20of%20Bulawayo--2020a|City of Bulawayo 2020a]] ; [[#City%20of%20Bulawayo--2020b|City of Bulawayo 2020b]] ). With these goals in mind, Bulawayo is seeking opportunities for investment that can enable leapfrogging in private, fossil fuel vehicle ownership. In particular, trackless trams, paired with solar energy, have emerged as a potential pathway forward ( [[#Kazunga--2019|Kazunga 2019]] ). Trackless trams are a new battery-based mid-tier transit system that could enable urban development around stations and that use solar energy for powering both transit and the surrounding buildings ( [[#Newman--2019|Newman et al. 2019]] ). The new trams are rail-like in their capacities and speed, providing a vastly better mobility system that is decarbonised and enables low transport costs ( [[#Ndlovu--2020|Ndlovu and Newman 2020]] ). While this concept is only under consideration in Bulawayo, climate funding could enable the wider deployment of such projects in developing countries.

'''Fuels for aviation and shipping''' . Despite technology improvements for land-based transport, equivalent technologies for long distance aviation and shipping remain elusive. Alternative fuels for use in long-range aviation and shipping are restricted to the niche level. The aviation sector is increasingly looking towards synthetic fuels using low-carbon combined with CO 2 from direct air capture, while shipping is moving towards ammonia produced using low-carbon hydrogen. Biofuels are also of interest for these segments. To move out of the niche level, there is a need to set deployment targets to support breakthroughs in these fuels. Similarly, there is a need for regulatory changes to remove barriers in new procurement systems that accommodate uncertainty and risks inherent in the early adoption of new technologies and infrastructure ( [[#Borén--2019|Borén 2019]] ; [[#Sclar--2019|Sclar et al. 2019]] ; [[#Marinaro--2020|Marinaro et al. 2020]] ). R&amp;D programmes and demonstration trials are the best focus for achievingfuels for such systems. Finally, there is a need for regulatory changes. Such regulatory changes need to be coordinated through ICAO and IMO as well as with national implementation tools related to the Paris Agreement (see Box 10.5). Long-term visions, including creative exercises for cities and regions, will be required, providing a protected space for the purpose of trialling new technologies ( [[#Borén--2019|Borén 2019]] ; [[#Geels--2019|Geels 2019]] ).

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