Editing IPCC:AR6/WGI/TS (section)

===== TS.4.3.2.7 Small Islands =====

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'''Additional regional changes in Small Islands, besides those features described in Section TS.4.3.1, include a ''likely'' decrease in rainfall during boreal summer in the Caribbean and in some parts of the Pacific islands poleward of 20° latitude in both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. These drying trends will ''likely'' continue in coming decades. Fewer but more intense tropical cyclones are projected starting from a 2°C GWL ( ''medium confidence'' ). Links to chapters 9.6, 11.3, 11.4, 11.7, 11.9, 12.4.7, Atlas.10.2, Atlas.10.4, Cross-Chapter Box Atlas.2'''
In addition to the main changes summarized above and in Section TS.4.3.1, further details are given below.

'''Heat and cold:''' It is ''very likely'' that most Small Islands have warmed over the period of instrumental records, and continued temperature increases in the 21st century will further increase heat stress in these regions. Links to chapters 11.3.2, 11.9, 12.4.7.1, Atlas.10.2, Atlas.10.4, Cross-Chapter Box Atlas.2

'''Wet and dry:''' Observed and projected rainfall trends vary spatially across the Small Islands. Higher evapotranspiration under a warming climate can partially offset future increases or amplify future reductions in rainfall, resulting in increased aridity as well as more severe agricultural and ecological drought in the Caribbean ( ''medium confidence'' ). Links to chapters 11.4.2, 11.9, 12.4.7.2, Atlas.10.2, Atlas.10.4, Cross-Chapter Box Atlas.2

'''Wind:''' Global changes indicate that Small Islands will face fewer but more intense TCs, with spatial inconsistency in projections given poleward shifts in TC tracks ( ''medium confidence'' ). Links to chapters 11.7.1.2, 11.7.1.5, 12.4.7.3

'''Coastal and oceanic:''' Continued relative sea level rise is ''very likely'' in the ocean around Small Islands and, along with storm surges and waves, will exacerbate coastal inundation with the potential to increase saltwater intrusion into aquifers in small islands. Shoreline retreat is projected along sandy coasts of most small islands ( ''high confidence'' ). Links to chapters 9.6.3.3, 12.4.7.4, Cross-Chapter Box Atlas.2

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