Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Chapter-15 (section)

== Frequently Asked Questions ==

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=== FAQ 15.1 | How is climate change affecting nature and human life on small islands, and will further climate change result in some small islands becoming uninhabitable for humans in the near future? ===

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''Climate change has already affected and will increasingly affect biodiversity, nature’s benefits for people, settlements, infrastructure, livelihoods and economies on small islands. In the absence of ambitious human intervention to reduce emissions, climate change impacts are likely to make some small islands uninhabitable in the second part of the 21st century. By protecting and restoring nature in and around small islands as well as implementing anticipatory adaptation responses, humans can help reduce future risks to ecosystems and human lives on most small islands.''

Observed changes—including increases in air and ocean temperatures, increases in storm surges, heavy rainfall events, and possibly more intense tropical cyclones—are already reducing the number and quality of ecosystem services, thereby causing the disruption of human livelihoods, damage to buildings and infrastructure, and loss of economic activities and cultural heritage on small islands. Widespread observed impacts include severe coral reef bleaching events, such as that associated with the 2015–2016 El Niño season, the most damaging on record worldwide. Additionally, the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season was unusually characterised by sequential severe TCs that resulted in widespread cyclone-induced damage to ecosystems from the very interior of small islands to those of the ocean waters that surround them as well as damage to human settlements and economic activities within the whole Caribbean region. Although knowledge is limited regarding long-term increases in TC intensity, studies have shown that heavy rainfall and intense wind speed of individual TCs were increased by climate change. The combination of various climate events, such as TCs, extreme ocean waves, and El Niño or La Niña phases, with SLR causes increased coastal flooding, especially on low-lying atoll islands of the Indian and Pacific oceans.

The expected increased risk of such impacts under further climate change is significant. For example, some low-lying islands and areas may be extensively flooded at every high tide or during storms. As a result, their freshwater supplies and soils would be repeatedly contaminated by saltwater, with adverse cascading consequences for freshwater and terrestrial food supplies, biodiversity and ecosystems, and economic activities. It is unlikely that these locations would remain habitable unless such impacts are mitigated through reduction of heat-trapping greenhouse gas emissions or adaptation solutions that are acceptable for the populations of these islands. Acceptable adaptation options may be limited in these locations. Additionally, drought intensity may challenge freshwater security in some regions such as the Caribbean. Likewise, remote atoll islands where inhabitants rely on reef-derived food and other resources and that are at high risk of widespread coral reef degradation may become uninhabitable. Strategies to reduce risk may include substituting the consumption of vulnerable inshore reef resources by developing onshore aquaculture (fish farming), or promoting access to tuna and other pelagic fish, and/or importing food to meet nutritional needs. However, adoption of these strategies will depend on the acceptance of their local populations.

The intensity and timing of such impacts will be more severe under high warming futures compared to low warming futures accompanied by ambitious adaptation. Tailored, desirable and locally owned adaptation responses that incorporate both short- and long-term time horizons would certainly help to reduce future risks to nature and human life in small islands. Among the short-term measures frequently employed to address SLR and flooding are seawalls. Long-term measures include ecosystem-based adaptation such as mangrove replanting, relocation of coastal villages to upland sites, creation of elevated land through reclamation, revised building codes as part of a broader DRR strategy, shifting to alternative livelihoods and changes in farming and fishing practices.

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=== FAQ 15.2 | How have some small island communities already adapted to climate change? ===

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''Faced with rising sea levels and storm surges along their coastal areas which have significantly threatened people’s safety, buildings, infrastructure and livelihoods, small island communities have already embarked on the use of different adaptation strategies. These include reactive adaptation, which deals with short-term measures, and anticipatory adaptation, which takes action in advance to lessen climate change impacts in the long run. Reactive measures have not always proven to be effective. By contrast, anticipatory measures hold much promise for future adaptation.''

The majority of people living on small islands occupy coasts, and thus the most widespread threats to people’s livelihoods are those from SLR, shoreline erosion, increased lowland flooding, and salinisation of groundwater and soil. Humans can either adapt reactively or anticipate coming changes and prepare for them. Given the diversity of small islands across the world, and their capacities to adapt, there is no single solution that fits all contexts.

Coastal livelihoods in particular are already affected by climate impacts. Coastal fishers have adapted to these changes in environmental conditions by diversifying livelihoods, expanding aquaculture production, considering weather insurance, building social networks to cope with reduced catches and availability during extreme storms, switching fishing grounds, and changing target species. Similarly, farmers have diversified livelihoods to more cash- and service-based activities such as tourism, changed plant species that thrive better in altered conditions, and shifted planting seasons according to changes in climate.

A typical reactive adaptation along small island coasts involves the construction of hard impermeable structures such as seawalls to stop the encroachment of the sea. Yet such structures, especially along rural island coasts, often fail to prevent flooding during extreme sea levels or extreme-wave impacts, and can inadvertently damage nearshore ecosystems such as mangroves and beaches. In the Caribbean, Indian Ocean islands and some Pacific islands, there are numerous examples of coastal engineering structures that have been destroyed already or are in grave danger from the encroaching sea. In many instances, citizens and governments are unable to access external advice or funding, communities have built such structures without assistance or knowledge of expected future SLR.

By contrast, anticipatory adaptation, which anticipates expected future impacts and acts in advance, requires a longer-term view as well as some understanding of future climate-change impacts in particular contexts. Along small island coasts, anticipatory adaptation typically involves recognising that sea level will continue rising and that problems currently experienced will be amplified in the future. One strategy for anticipatory adaptation in response to SLR and flooding is relocation, which is the movement of coastal communities away from vulnerable (coastal-fringe) locations to sites that are further inland. Coastal setback policies have been applied to hotels in some islands such as Barbados. In coastal locations where the risks of rising sea level, flooding and erosion are very high and cannot effectively be reduced, ‘retreat’ from the shoreline is the only way to eliminate or reduce such risks.

Where relocation is successful, it is most commonly driven and funded by governments and non-government organisations, often within a specially designed policy framework. The Government of Fiji, for example, has introduced a relocation framework that specifically develops guidance on relocation processes, with several villages already having relocated. Evaluations to date recommend thorough cost–-benefit analyses of relocation be undertaken before this strategy is pursued. Relocation is often viewed as a ‘last resort’ adaptation option because of high cost and because some sociocultural aspects of life cannot be maintained in locations separated from customary land. The Bahamas relocated a community on Family Island from the shoreline to an inland location and the community of Boca de Cachón in the Dominican Republic was relocated to higher ground. The Navunievu community (Bua, Fiji) has mandated that every young adult building their family home in the village should do so upslope rather than on the regularly flooded coastal flat where the existing village is located. Over the next few decades, this will result in the gradual upslope migration of the community, an example of autonomous adaptation. Such creative community-grounded solutions hold great promise for future adaptation on small islands, where they are undertaken inclusively.

Anticipatory adaptation has been aligned with DRR in some small islands. For example, Jamaica adopted such an approach in relocating three communities. Recognising that a proactive approach is needed, Jamaica developed a Resettlement Policy Framework aligned with the National Development Plan and based on vulnerability assessments of communities at risk of climate change and disaster risk. A resettlement action plan was developed for the Harbour Heights community using community engagement to design successful planned relocation. In some islands revised building codes are implemented as an anticipatory adaptation measure. As part of the build-back-better strategy hurricane resistant roofs are being built to cope with strong winds associated with tropical cyclones.

Ecosystem-based adaptation can be a low-cost anticipatory adaptation measure that is often used in small islands. It is referred to as a ‘no-regret’ or ‘low-regret’ strategy because it is low-costing, brings co-benefits and requires less maintenance in contrast to hard engineering structures. Ecosystem-based adaptation is used at different scales and in different sectors such as to protect fisheries, farming and tourism assets, and integrates various stakeholders from national to local governments and non-governmental agencies. Many islands have implemented ecosystem-based adaptation such as watershed management, mangrove replanting and other nature-based solutions to strengthen coastal foreshore areas that are subjected to coastal erosion and flooding caused by SLR and changing rainfall patterns. For example, mangroves have been planted on several cays in Belize and pandanus trees have been planted near the coastlines of the Marshall Islands. Agroforestry is another example of ecosystem-based adaptation. Planting trees and shrubs in combination with crops has been used to increase resilience of crops to droughts or excessive rainfall run-off. Case studies show that people living on islands benefit even further from using ecosystem-based adaptation. Their health improves as well as their food and water supply, while risks of disasters caused by extreme events are reduced.

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'''Figure FAQ15.2.1 |''' '''Adaptation options for rural coastal communities in small islands.'''

'''a:''' '''In many places today, coastal communities which have been established for hundreds of years are being more regularly inundated than ever before as a result of rising sea level.'''

'''b:''' '''By the end of this century, sea level in such places may have risen 1 m or more, making many such settlements (largely) uninhabitable, underscoring the need for effective (anticipatory) adaptation.'''

'''c:''' '''One option is in situ adaptation, popular because it is cheaper and less disruptive than other options; it is typically characterised by mangrove replanting, seawall construction and raising of dwellings.'''

'''d:''' '''A second option is for communities to incrementally relocate upslope by building all new houses further inland.'''

'''e:''' '''A third option is complete relocation of a vulnerable coastal community with external support upslope and inland.'''

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=== FAQ 15.3 | How will climate-related changes affect the contributions of agriculture and fisheries to food security in small islands? ===

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''Agriculture and fisheries are heavily influenced by climate, which means a change in occurrence of TCs, air temperature, ocean temperature and/or rainfall can have considerable impacts on the production and availability of crops and seafood and therefore the health and welfare of island inhabitants. Projected impacts of climate change on agriculture and fisheries in some cases will enhance productivity, but in many cases could undermine food production, greatly exacerbating food insecurity challenges for human populations in small islands.''

Small islands mostly depend on rain-fed agriculture, which is likely to be affected in various ways by climate change, including loss of agricultural land through floods and droughts, and contamination of freshwater and soil through salt-water intrusion, warming temperatures leading to stresses of crops, and extreme events such as cyclones. In some islands, crops that have been traditionally part of people’s diet can no longer be cultivated due to such changes. For example, severe rainfall during planting seasons can damage seedlings, reduce growth and provide conditions that promote plant pests and diseases.

Changes in the frequency and severity of TCs or droughts will pose challenges for many islands. For example, more pronounced dry seasons, warmer temperatures and greater evaporation could cause plant stress reducing productivity and harvests. The impacts of drought may hinder insects and animals from pollinating crops, trees and other vegetative food sources on tropical islands. For instance, many agroforestry crops are completely dependent on insect pollination, and it is, therefore, important to monitor and recognise how climate change is affecting the number and productivity of these insects. Coastal agroforest systems in small islands are important to national food security but rely on biodiversity (e.g., insects for pollination services). Biodiversity loss from traditional agroecosystems has been identified as one of the most serious threats to food and livelihood security in islands. Ecosystem-based adaptation practices and diversification of crop varieties are possible solutions.

The continuous reduction of soil fertility as well as increasing incidences of pests, diseases and invasive species contribute to the growing vulnerability of the agricultural systems on small islands. Higher temperatures could increase the presence of food- or water-borne diseases and the challenge of managing food safety. Changes in weather patterns can also disrupt food transportation and distribution systems on islands where indigenous communities are often located in remote areas.

Impacts of climate change on fisheries in small islands result from ocean temperature change, SLR, extreme weather patterns such as cyclones, reducing ocean oxygen concentrations and ocean acidification. These combined pressures are leading to the widespread loss or damage to marine habitats such as coral reefs but also mangroves and seagrass beds and consequently of important fish species that depend on these habitats and are crucial both to the food security (a high proportion of dietary protein is derived from seafood) and incomes of island communities. Shifting ocean currents and warming waters are also changing the distribution of pelagic fish stocks, especially of open-water tuna, with further consequences for both local food security and national economies, where they are often highly dependent on income from fishing licenses (e.g., 98% of GDP in Tokelau, 66% of national income in Kiribati).

Climate change is projected to have profound effects on the future status and distribution of coastal and oceanic habitats, and consequently of the fish and invertebrates they support. High water temperature causes changes in the growth rate of fish species as well as the timing of spawning and migration patterns, with consequences for fisheries catch potential. Some small island countries and territories are projected to experience more than 50% declines in fishery catches by 2100. Other small islands such as Easter Island (Chile), Pitcairn Islands (UK), Bermuda, and Cabo Verde may actually witness increases in catch potential under certain climate scenarios. Food shortages are often apparent in small islands, following the passage of catastrophic TCs. Access to pelagic fisheries can help to alleviate immediate food insecurity pressures in some circumstances, whereas aquaculture (fish farming) is being viewed as a longer-term means of diversifying incomes and enhancing resilience in many Caribbean and Pacific islands.

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