Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Chapter-16 (section)

==== 16.4.2.2 Agriculture in Asia ====

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Lack of financial resources is found to be a significant constraint that contributes to soft limits to adaptation in agriculture across Asia. Although smallholder farmers are currently adapting to climate impacts, lack of finance and access to credit prevents upscaling of adaptive responses and has led to losses ( [[#Bauer--2013|Bauer, 2013]] ; [[#Patnaik--2015|Patnaik and Narayanan, 2015]] ; [[#Bhatta--2016|Bhatta and Aggarwal, 2016]] ; [[#Loria--2016|Loria, 2016]] ). Other constraints further contribute to soft limits, including governance and associated institutional factors such as ineffective agricultural policies and organisational capacities ( [[#Tun%20Oo--2017|Tun Oo et al., 2017]] ), information and technology challenges such as limited availability and access to technologies on the ground ( [[#Singh--2018|Singh et al., 2018]] ), socio-cultural factors such as the social acceptability of adaptation measures that are affected by gender ( [[#Huyer--2016|Huyer, 2016]] ; [[#Ravera--2016|Ravera et al., 2016]] ), and limited human capacity ( [[#Masud--2017|Masud et al., 2017]] ). A wide range of pests and pathogens are predicted to become problematic to regional food crop production as average global temperatures rise ( [[#Deutsch--2018|Deutsch et al., 2018]] ), increasing crop loss across Asia for which farmers are already experiencing a variety of adaptation constraints, including financial, economic and technological challenges ( [[#Sada--2014|Sada et al., 2014]] ; [[#Tun%20Oo--2017|Tun Oo et al., 2017]] ; [[#Fahad--2018|Fahad and Wang, 2018]] ). Extreme heatwaves are projected in the densely populated agricultural regions of South Asia, leading to increased risk of heat stress for farmers and resultant constraints on their ability to implement adaptive actions ( [[#Im--2017|Im et al., 2017]] ). However, socioeconomic constraints appear to have a higher influence on soft limits to adaptation in agriculture than biophysical constraints ( [[#Thomas--2021|Thomas et al., 2021]] ). For example, an examination of farmers’ adaptation to climate change in Turkey found that constraints related to access to climate information and access to credit will likely limit the yield benefits of incremental adaptation ( [[#Karapinar--2020|Karapinar and Özertan, 2020]] ). In Nepal, conservation policies restrict traditional grazing inside national parks, which promotes intensive agriculture and limits other cropping systems that have been implemented as climate change adaptation ( [[#Aryal--2014|Aryal et al., 2014]] ).

In Bangladesh, small and landless farm households are already approaching soft limits in adapting to riverbank erosion ( [[#Alam--2018|Alam et al., 2018]] ). While wealthier farming households can implement a range of adaptation responses, including changing planting times and cultivating different crops, poorer households have limited access to financial institutions and credit to implement such measures. Their adaptation responses of shifting to homestead gardening and animal rearing are insufficient to maintain their livelihoods, and these households are more likely to engage in off-farm work or migrate.

Palao et al.. (2019) identify the possible need for transformational adaptation in Asian-Pacific agricultural practices due to changes in biophysical parameters as global average temperatures rise. In this context, transformational adaptation would consist of changing farming locations to different provinces or different elevations for the production of specific crops or introducing new farming systems. Nearly 50% of maize in the region along with 18% of potato and 8% of rice crops would need to either be shifted in location or use new cropping systems, with the most significant transformation being needed in China, India, Myanmar and the Philippines. For maize suitability by 2030, seven provinces in the east and northeast of China are projected to experience over 50% reduction in suitability, and two northern states in India may experience 70% reduction in suitability. Cassava and sweet potato may play a critical role in food resilience in these areas, as these crops are more resilient to climate change ( [[#Prain--2019|Prain and Naziri, 2019]] ).

In terms of hard limits, the rate and extent of climate change is critical as agriculture is climate-dependent and sensitive to changes in climate parameters. [[#Poudel--2017|Poudel and Duex (2017)]] document that over 70% of the springs used as water sources in Nepalese mountain agricultural communities had a decreased flow, and approximately 12% had dried up over the past decade. While there are some adaptation measures to address reduced water availability—such as the introduction of water-saving irrigation technology among Beijing farmers to alleviate water scarcity in metropolitan suburbs ( [[#Zhang--2019|Zhang et al., 2019]] )—these actions still depend on some level of water availability. If climate hazards intensify to the point where water supply cannot meet agricultural demands, hard limits to adaptation will occur.

Residual risks associated with agriculture in Asia include declines in fisheries, aquaculture and crop production, particularly in South and Southeast Asia ( [[IPCC:Wg2:Chapter:Chapter-10#10.3|Section 10.3.5]] ), increased food insecurity ( [[IPCC:Wg2:Chapter:Chapter-10#10.4.5|Section 10.4.5]] ), reductions of farmers’ incomes by up to 25% ( [[IPCC:Wg2:Chapter:Chapter-10#10.4.5|Section 10.4.5]] ), loss of production areas ( [[IPCC:Wg2:Chapter:Chapter-10#10.4.5|Section 10.4.5]] ) and reduced physical work capacity for farmers—between 5% and 15% decline in south-southwest Asia and China under RCP8.5 ( [[IPCC:Wg2:Chapter:Chapter-5#5.12.4|Section 5.12.4]] ).

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