Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Chapter-5 (section)

==== 5.5.3.3 Impacts on livestock diseases ====

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The impacts of climate change on livestock diseases remain highly uncertain ( ''medium evidence'' , ''high agreement'' ). [[#Bett--2017|Bett et al. (2017)]] showed positive associations between rising temperature and expansion of the geographical ranges of arthropod vectors such as ''Culicoides imicola'' , which transmits the bluetongue virus. A 1-in-20-year bluetongue outbreak at present-day temperatures is projected to increase in frequency to 1-in-5 to 1-in-7 years by the 2050s, under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, although animal movement restrictions can prevent devastating outbreaks ( [[#Jones--2019|Jones et al., 2019]] ).

The prevalence and occurrence of some livestock diseases are positively associated with extreme weather events ( ''high confidence'' ). There are high risks of future Rift Valley fever (RVF) outbreaks under both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 this century in East Africa and beyond ( [[#Taylor--2016|Taylor et al., 2016]] ; [[#Mweya--2017|Mweya et al., 2017]] ).

Few studies explicitly consider the biotic and abiotic factors that interact additively, multiplicatively or antagonistically to influence host–pathogen dynamics ( [[#Cable--2017|Cable et al., 2017]] ). Integrative concepts that aim to improve the health of people, animals and the environment such as One Health may offer a framework for enhancing understanding of these complex interactions ( [[#Zinsstag--2018|Zinsstag et al., 2018]] ). Much remains unknown concerning disease transmission dynamics under a warming climate ( [[#Heffernan--2018|Heffernan, 2018]] ), highlighting the need for effective monitoring of livestock disease ( [[#Brito--2017|Brito et al., 2017]] ; [[#Hristov--2018|Hristov et al., 2018]] ).

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