Editing IPCC:AR6/WGI/Chapter-Atlas (section)

==== Atlas.5.1.5 Summary ====

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In East Asia annual mean temperature has been increasing since the 1950s ( ''high confidence'' ). The linear trend of annual mean surface air temperature ''likely'' exceeded 0.1°C per decade over most of East Asia from 1961 to 2015. Trends of annual precipitation show considerable regional differences with areas of both increases and decreases ( ''medium confidence'' ), and with increases over north-west China and South Korea ( ''high confidence'' ). Agricultural intensification through oasis expansion in Xinjiang region has increased summer precipitation in the Tian Shan mountains ( ''high confidence'' ).

GCMs still show poor performance in simulating the mean rainfall and its variability over East Asia, especially over regions characterized by complex topography. The CMIP6 models have improved from CMIP5 for climatological temperature and winter monsoon but show little improvements for the summer monsoon. The RCMs produce relatively more detailed regional features, but do not always produce superior simulations compared with the driving GCMs.

The annual mean surface temperature over East Asia and the Tibetan Plateau will ''very likely'' increase under all emissions scenarios and GWLs. Larger warming magnitudes will ''likely'' occur in the northern part of EAS and in ECA and TIB. Precipitation is ''likely'' to increase over land in most of EAS at the end of the 21st century under higher-emissions scenarios (SSP3-7.0, RCP8.5 and SSP5-8.5) and global warming levels, and in ECA and TIB under all emissions scenarios and global warming levels. Summer precipitation increase is ''likely'' to occur in East Asia, corresponding to the strengthened summer monsoon circulation.

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