Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Chapter-11 (section)

==== 11.3.6.2 Projected impacts ====

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Climate change is projected to have detrimental effects on human health due to heat stress, changing rainfall patterns including floods and drought climate-sensitive air pollution (including that caused by wildfires) ( ''high confidence'' ) and vector-borne diseases ''(medium confidence)'' . Vulnerability to detrimental effects of climate change will vary with socioeconomic conditions ( ''high confidence'' ).

The greatest number of people affected by compounding effects of heat, wildfires and poor air quality will be in urban and peri-urban areas of Australia. By 2100 the proportion of all deaths attributable to heat in Melbourne, Sydney and Brisbane may rise from about 0.5% to 0.8% (under RCP 2.6), or 3.2% (under RCP 8.5) ( [[#Gasparrini--2017|Gasparrini et al., 2017]] ). Heatwave related excess deaths in Melbourne, Sydney and Brisbane are projected to increase to 300/year (RCP2.6) or 600/year (RCP8.5) during 2031–2080 relative to 142/year during 1971–2020, assuming no adaptation and high population growth ( [[#Guo--2018|Guo et al., 2018]] ). High temperatures amplify the risks due to local air pollution: without adaptation, ozone-related deaths in Sydney may increase by 50–60/year by 2070 ( [[#Physick--2014|Physick et al., 2014]] ).

Unless there is more effective control of nutrient runoff, bacterial contamination of drinking water supplies is projected to increase due to more intense rainfall events, exacerbating risks to human health ( [[#Gilpin--2020|Gilpin et al., 2020]] ; [[#Lai--2020|Lai et al., 2020]] ), and higher temperatures will increase freshwater toxic blooms ( [[#Hamilton--2016|Hamilton et al., 2016]] ).

In general, the area of Australia suitable for the transmission of dengue is projected to increase ( [[#Zhang--2018|Zhang and Beggs, 2018]] ; [[#Messina--2019|Messina et al., 2019]] ), but estimates of local disease risk vary considerably according to climate change scenario and socioeconomic pathways ( [[#Williams--2016|Williams et al., 2016]] ). The spread of ''Wolbachia'' among ''Aedes'' mosquitoes in northern Australia has already reduced dengue transmission and may decrease the influence of climate in the future ( [[#Ryan--2019|Ryan et al., 2019]] ). In New Zealand, the risk of dengue remains low for the remainder of this century ( [[#Messina--2019|Messina et al., 2019]] ). Higher temperatures and more intense rainfall may also increase pollen production and the risk of allergic illness throughout the region ( [[#Haberle--2014|Haberle et al., 2014]] ).

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