Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Chapter-14 (section)

==== 14.5.6.6 Food-Borne Disease ====

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Warmer air temperature, changes in precipitation, extreme weather events and ocean warming can increase microbial pathogen loads in food ( ''very high confidence'' ). Indeed, temperature and extreme weather are top factors influencing food safety in Canada ( [[#Charlebois--2015|Charlebois and Summan, 2015]] ). Outbreaks of ''Vibrio parahaemolyticus'' have been associated with the consumption of raw oysters harvested from higher-than-usual ocean temperatures in Canada and Alaska ( [[#McLaughlin--2005|McLaughlin et al., 2005]] ; [[#Taylor--2018|Taylor et al., 2018]] ). Warmer air temperature increases ''Campylobacter'' , ''Salmonella'' and ''E. coli'' prevalence in Canadian meat products ( [[#Smith--2019|Smith et al., 2019]] ), higher microbial load in American produce ( [[#Ward--2015|Ward et al., 2015]] ) and increased ''Campylobacter'' spp., pathogenic ''E. coli'' and ''Salmonella'' spp. infections in humans ( [[#Akil--2014|Akil et al., 2014]] ; [[#Valcour--2016|Valcour et al., 2016]] ; [[#Uejio--2017|Uejio, 2017]] ).

Climate change is projected to increase food safety risks ( ''medium confidence'' ); however, the actual burden of food-borne disease will depend on the efficacy of public health interventions ( ''high confidence'' ). Increased ciguatera fish poisoning is associated with increased sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and tropical storm frequency, and this risk is projected to increase this century ( [[#Gingold--2014|Gingold et al., 2014]] ). ''Campylobacter'' infection in humans due to food contamination from flies is projected to increase this century in Canada ( [[#Cousins--2019|Cousins et al., 2019]] ), and increased housefly populations are projected this century in Mexico ( [[#Meraz%20Jimenez--2019|Meraz Jimenez et al., 2019]] ). Climate change may also lead to new emerging food-borne disease risks. For instance, ''V. cholerae'' is a pathogen previously restricted to tropical regions; however, due to warming ocean temperatures, its detection has significantly increased along Canadian coasts ( [[#Banerjee--2018|Banerjee et al., 2018]] ).

Climate change is projected to increase human food-borne exposure to chemical contaminants ( ''medium confidence'' ). Increases in SST have been associated with greater accumulation of mercury in seafood, marine mammals and fish ( [[#Ziska--2016|Ziska et al., 2016]] ). This particularly increases food safety risks in the Arctic, with methylmercury and polychlorinated biphenyl concentrations in high trophic animals projected to increase under high-emission scenarios by 2100 ( [[#Alava--2017|Alava et al., 2017]] ; [[#Alava--2018|Alava et al., 2018]] ).

Climate-related food-borne disease risks vary temporally, and are influenced, in part, by food availability, accessibility, preparation and preferences ( ''medium confidence'' ). For example, seafood risks are more pronounced in coastal regions due to high seafood consumption ( [[#Radke--2015|Radke et al., 2015]] ). In Alaska and northern Canada, where locally harvested foods are critical to diet, climate change may introduce new pathogens to local food sources through wildlife range changes, warming temperatures affecting safe fermentation and drying preparation methods, and food temperature control in below-ground cold storage in or near permafrost ( [[#King--2014|King and Furgal, 2014]] ; [[#Harper--2015|Harper et al., 2015]] ; [[#Rapinski--2018|Rapinski et al., 2018]] ).

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