Editing IPCC:AR6/WGIII/Chapter-10 (section)

=== 10.8.3 Emerging Transport Issues ===

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'''Planning for integration with the power sector:''' Decarbonising the transport sector will require significant growth in low-carbon electricity to power EVs, and more so for producing energy-intensive fuels, such as hydrogen, ammonia and synthetic fuels. Higher electricity demand will necessitate greater expansion of the power sector and increase land use. The strategic use of energy-intensive fuels, focused on harder-to-decarbonise transport segments, can minimise the increase in electricity demand. Additionally, integrated planning of transport and power infrastructure could enable sectoral synergies and reduce the environmental, social, and economic impacts of decarbonising transport and energy. For example, smart charging of EVs could support more efficient grid operations. Hydrogen production, which is likely crucial for the decarbonisation of shipping and aviation, could also serve as storage for electricity produced during low-demand periods. Integrated planning of transport and power infrastructure would be particularly useful in developing countries where ‘greenfield’ development doesn’t suffer from constraints imposed by legacy systems.

'''Shipping and aviation governance:''' Strategies to deliver fuels in sufficient quantity for aviation and shipping to achieve transformative targets are growing in intensity and often feature the need to review international and national governance. Some authors in the literature have argued that the governance of the international transport systems could be included in the Paris Agreement process ( [[#Gençsü--2015|Gençsü and Hino 2015]] ; [[#Lee--2018|Lee 2018]] ; [[#Traut--2018|Traut et al. 2018]] ). Box 10.6 sets out these issues.

'''Managing critical minerals:''' Critical minerals are required to manufacture lithium-ion batteries (LIB) and other renewable power technologies. There has been growing awareness that critical minerals may face challenges related to resource availability, labour rights, and costs. Box 10.6 sets out the issues, showing how emerging national strategies on critical minerals, along with requirements from major vehicle manufacturers, are addressing the need for rapid development of new mines with a more balanced geography, less use of cobalt through continuing LIB innovations, and a focus on recycling batteries. The standardisation of battery modules and packaging within and across vehicle platforms, as well as increased focus on design for recyclability, are important. Given the high degree of potential recyclability of LIBs, a near closed-loop system in the future would be a feasible opportunity to minimise critical mineral issues.

'''Enabling creative foresight:''' Human culture has always had a creative instinct that enables the future to be better dealt with through imagination ( [[#Montgomery--2017|Montgomery 2017]] ). Science and engineering have often been preceded by artistic expressions; for example Jules Verne first dreamed of the hydrogen future in 1874 in his novel ''The Mysterious Island'' . Autonomous vehicles have regularly occupied the minds of science fiction authors and filmmakers ( [[#Braun--2019|Braun 2019]] ). Such narratives, scenario building, and foresighting are increasingly seen as a part of the climate change mitigation process ( [[#Lennon--2015|Lennon et al. 2015]] ; [[#Muiderman--2020|Muiderman et al. 2020]] ) and can ‘liberate oppressed imaginaries’ ( [[#Luque-Ayala--2018|Luque-Ayala 2018]] ). [[#Barber--2021|Barber (2021)]] emphasised the important role of positive images about the future instead of dystopian visions and the impossibility of business-as-usual futures.

Transport visions can be a part of this cultural change as well as the more frequently presented visions of renewable energy ( [[#Wentland--2016|Wentland 2016]] ; [[#Breyer--2017|Breyer et al. 2017]] ). There are some emerging technologies, like Maglev, Hyperloop, and drones that are likely to continue the electrification of transport even further ( [[#Daim--2021|Daim 2021]] ) and which are only recently at the imagination stage. Decarbonised visions for heavy vehicle systems appear to be a core need from the assessment of technologies in this chapter. Such visioning or foresighting requires deliberative processes and the literature contains a growing list of transport success stories based on such processes ( [[#Weymouth--2015|Weymouth and Hartz-Karp 2015]] ). Ultimately, reducing GHG emissions from the transport sector would benefit from creative visions that integrate a broad set of ideas about technologies, urban and infrastructure planning (including transport, electricity, and telecommunications infrastructure), and human behaviour and at the same time can create opportunities to achieve the SDGs.

'''Enabling transport climate emergency plans, local pledges and net zero strategies:''' National, regional and local governments are now producing transport plans with a climate emergency focus ( [[#Jaeger--2015|Jaeger et al. 2015]] ; [[#Pollard--2019|Pollard 2019]] ). Such plans are often grounded in the goals of the Paris Agreement, based around local low-carbon transport roadmaps that contain targets for and involve commitments or pledges from local stakeholders, such as workplaces, local community groups, and civil society organisations. Pledges often include phasing out fossil fuel-based cars, buses, and trucks ( [[#Plötz--2020|Plötz et al. 2020]] ), strategies to meet the targets through infrastructure, urban regeneration and incentives, and detailed programmes to help citizens adopt change. These institution-led mechanisms could include bike-to-work campaigns, free transport passes, parking charges, or eliminating car benefits. Community-based solutions like solar sharing, community charging, and mobility as a service can generate new opportunities to facilitate low-carbon transport futures. Cities in India and China have established these transport roadmaps, which are also supported by the United Nations Centre for Regional Development’s Environmentally Sustainable Transport programme ( [[#Baeumler--2012|Baeumler et al. 2012]] ; [[#Pathak--2016|Pathak and Shukla 2016]] ; [[#UNCRD--2020|UNCRD 2020]] ). There have been concerns raised that these pledges may be used to delay climate action in some cases ( [[#Lamb--2020|Lamb et al. 2020]] ) but such pledges can be calculated at a personal level and applied through every level of activity from individual, household, neighbourhood, business, city, nation or groups of nations ( [[#Meyer--2020|Meyer and Newman 2020]] ) and are increasingly being demonstrated through shared communities and local activism ( [[#Bloomberg--2017|Bloomberg and Pope 2017]] ; [[#Sharp--2018|Sharp 2018]] ; [[#Figueres--2020|Figueres and Rivett-Carnac 2020]] ). Finally, the world’s major financing institutions are also engaging in decarbonisation efforts by requiring their recipients to commit to Net Zero Strategies before they can receive their funding ( [[#Robins--2018|Robins 2018]] ; [[#Newman--2020a|Newman 2020a]] ) (Chapter 15, Cross-Chapter Box 1 in Chapter 1). As a result, transparent methods are emerging for calculating what these financing requirements mean for transport by companies, cities, regions, and infrastructure projects (Chapters 8 and 15). The continued engagement of financial institutions may, like in other sectors, become a major factor in enabling transformative futures for transport as long as governance and communities continue to express the need for such change.

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