Editing IPCC:AR6/WGIII/Chapter-16 (section)

=== 16.4.8 System-oriented Policies and Instruments ===

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Although previous sections summarised the research disentangling the role of individual policies in advancing or hindering innovation (as well as impacts on other objectives), other research has tried to characterise the impact of a policy mix on a particular outcome. Although the outcome studied was not innovation, but diffusion (technology effectiveness is in the set of criteria outlined in Chapter 13), it seems relevant to discuss overall findings. Research reviewing renewable energy policies in nine OECD countries concludes that, over time, a broad set of policies characterised by a ‘balance’ metric has been put in place. This research also identifies a significant negative association between the balance of policies in renewable energy and the diffusion of total renewable energy capacity, but no significant effect of the overall intensity (coded as the 46 weighted average of six indicators) on renewable capacity ( [[#Schmidt--2019|Schmidt and Sewerin 2019]] ). This indicates that a neutral conception of balance across all possible policies may not be desirable, and that policy mix intensity by itself does not explain technology diffusion.

A growing body of research aims to understand how different policies interact and how to characterise policy mixes ( [[#del%20Río--2010|del Río 2010]] ; [[#Howlett--2015|Howlett and del Rio 2015]] ; [[#Rogge--2016|Rogge and Reichardt 2016]] ; [[#del%20Río--2017|del Río and Cerdá 2017]] ). The empirical impact on the innovation outcomes is not yet discussed. A more detailed discussion of this literature is located in Chapter 13.

An emerging stream of research in complex systems suggests that relatively small changes in policy near a possible tipping point in climate impacts in areas, including changing strategies related to investments in innovation, could trigger large positive societal feedbacks in the long term ( [[#Farmer--2019|Farmer et al. 2019]] ; [[#Otto--2020|Otto et al. 2020]] ).

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