Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Chapter-13 (section)

==== 13.6.1.2 Transport ====

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Heatwaves in 2015 and 2018 in parts of WCE and NEU caused road melting, railway asset failures and speed restrictions to reduce the likelihood of track buckling ( [[#Ferranti--2018|Ferranti et al., 2018]] ; [[#Vogel--2019|Vogel et al., 2019]] ). Recent studies on projected risks focus mainly on infrastructure and much less on transport flows and disruptions.

Sea level rise ( [[#13.2|Section 13.2]] ) may disrupt port operations and surrounding areas, mainly in parts of NEU and WCE ( [[#Christodoulou--2018|Christodoulou et al., 2018]] ), while changes of waves agitation could increase the non-operability hours of some Mediterranean ports beyond 2°C GWL ( [[#Sierra--2016|Sierra et al., 2016]] ; [[#Camus--2019|Camus et al., 2019]] ; [[#Izaguirre--2021|Izaguirre et al., 2021]] ). Low-water-level days at some critical locations for inland navigation at the Rhine River are projected to increase beyond 2°C GWL, while decreases at the Danube River are possible ( [[#van%20Slobbe--2016|van Slobbe et al., 2016]] ; [[#Christodoulou--2020|Christodoulou et al., 2020]] ).

Risks of rutting and blow-ups of roads (particularly in low altitudes) due to high summer temperatures are expected to increase in WCE and EEU at 3°C GWL ( ''medium confidence'' ) ( [[#Frolov--2014|Frolov et al., 2014]] ; [[#Matulla--2018|Matulla et al., 2018]] ; [[#Yakubovich--2018|Yakubovich and Yakubovich, 2018]] ). In EEU and northern Scandinavia, the higher number of freezing–thawing cycles of construction materials will increase risks for roads ( [[#Frolov--2014|Frolov et al., 2014]] ; [[#Yakubovich--2018|Yakubovich and Yakubovich, 2018]] ; [[#Nilsen--2021|Nilsen et al., 2021]] ), while warming beyond 2°C GWL could significantly reduce road maintenance costs in NEU ( [[#Lorentzen--2020|Lorentzen, 2020]] ), but limit off-road overland transport in northwest Russia ( [[#Gädeke--2021|Gädeke et al., 2021]] ). Beyond 3°C GWL, more frequent hourly precipitation extremes are projected over WCE and NEU in summer (e.g., a twofold and tenfold increase, respectively, for events exceeding the present-day 99.99 th percentile in Germany and the UK) but more widely across Europe in autumn and winter (an increase higher than tenfold for 99.99th percentile events in SEU in autumn ( [[#Chan--2020|Chan et al., 2020]] ), potentially severely damaging roads as happened in Mandra, Greece, in 2017 ( [[#Diakakis--2020|Diakakis et al., 2020]] ). Landslide risks in WCE and SEU could increase beyond a 2°C GWL, threatening road networks ( [[#Schlogl--2018|Schlogl and Matulla, 2018]] ; [[#Rianna--2020|Rianna et al., 2020]] ).

The current flood risk for railways could double or triple at 1.5–3°C GWL, particularly in WCE, increasing public expenditure for rail transport in Europe by 1.22 billion EUR annually under 3°C GWL and no adaptation ( [[#Bubeck--2019|Bubeck et al., 2019]] ). Thermal discomfort in urban underground railways is expected to increase, even at a high level of carriage cooling ( [[#Jenkins--2014a|Jenkins et al., 2014a]] ).

The number of airports vulnerable to inundation from SLR and storm surges may double between 2030 and 2080 without adaptation, especially close to the North Sea and Mediterranean coasts ( [[#Christodoulou--2018|]] [[#Christodoulou--2018|Christodoulou and Demirel, 2018]] ). Rising temperatures reducing lift generation could impose weight restrictions for large aircraft at 2°C GWL and beyond in airports of France, the UK and Spain ( [[#Coffel--2017|Coffel et al., 2017]] ). There is a lack of studies quantifying the effect of future extreme events on flight arrivals at, and departures from, European airports.

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